Basestealing mystery

[JEFFFESPERMAN]

I have Carl Crawford who has stolen 13 bases, but has been caught 12 times. Ichiro on the other hand has stolen 17 and only been caught 6 times. My team setting is "conservative" and I have both of these guys checked to "steal more." Is this just bad luck for Crawford or am I missing something obvious?

[LARRYLANG]

If you have crawford set to steal more, I would be interested to see how may of those "caught stealings" were attempting to steal 3B.....If that is the case his odds of stealing go down substantionally....Check it out :lol:

[JEFFFESPERMAN]

In my last series, he was cut down three consecutive times trying to steal second base. He was running against the pitcher/catcher combos listed below.

Webb (+6) / Mauer (-2)
Peavy (+4) / Pratt (0)
Patterson (+9) / Mauer (-2)

[Mean Dean]

Presumably he's running without leads on those guys. Assuming he was held on base and trying to steal without a lead, his chance of getting caught against Webb/Mauer and Peavy/Pratt would be 30%, and his chance against Patterson/Mauer would be 25%. So, there was a substantial chance to get caught, but the success chance was still good enough that you'd try for it anyway. Getting caught each time is just one of those things that happens. You can take off the "steal more" or go to "extra conservative", of course, but I wouldn't.

[cummings2]

I doubt it is from failed H&R att. mostly due to the ammount of CSs but you could also check that out. If Crawford is getting CS while the batter is rated B in H&R it could be a combo of bad rolls, running W/O lead (like Dean pointed out) and failed H&Rs.

The most I've been able to trigger the H&R is 7 attempts per 3 game series so I really doubt you had three failed H&Rs there in that one game though.

[FFNogoodnik]

How can you tell if there was a H&R attempt?

[Mean Dean]

You can't.

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:53ba9eba8b="DeanTSC"]You can't.[/quote:53ba9eba8b]

You could if they opened up the program to include more game detail, which is something already in the CD ROM game, which I'm sure could easily be added here.

In other words, the technology exists. This is something that might cause new players to go whoa! Too much information! Then after about a week of games they would appreciate it. So, on a H & R, currently you get:

[b:53ba9eba8b]caught stealing
Jones - groundout[/b:53ba9eba8b]

Instead you would get:

[b:53ba9eba8b]failed hit & run attempt - runner on 1st caught stealing
Jones - groundout to SS[/b:53ba9eba8b]

That is not exact or word for word, but is correct in terms of the level of info.