What are the odds of this happening...3X !

[Runnin Rebel]

Check your steal rating in Manager's strategy, because if you have the team going on "aggressive" or "very aggressive" he would still go on a 15 even if he did not get a good jump.

That would drop your success rate to .75 which still leaves a 25% chance that he will be thrown out.

changing the odds from

.10^3= 1/1,000

to

.25^3= 1/156

a more reasonable scenario.

[visick]

My steal settings are on aggressive.

I still like my chances @ 75% btw.

And thank you, can't stop the reign, for your answer. Your answer makes much more sense to me.

I can't believe he got 3 bad jumps. 1 bad jump, I'll buy. 2...somethings fishy. 3...no way.

[zonachoke]

According to his stealing matrix, he's got a 47.2% chance (17 out of 36) of getting a good jump... and a 52.8% chance of a bad jump.

Baserunners need not attempt to steal when they get a bad jump, so on more than 90% of the "bad jump" situations, HAL will have the baserunner stay put. The less-than-10% "exception" is when a bad jump occurs with basestealer/pitcher/catcher (high bottom #/weak hold and/or weak arm) combos like Reyes/Liriano/Coste.

[zonachoke]

According to his stealing matrix, he's got a 47.2% chance (17 out of 36) of getting a good jump... and a 52.8% chance of a bad jump.

Baserunners need not attempt to steal when they get a bad jump, so on more than 90% of the "bad jump" situations, HAL will have the baserunner stay put. The less-than-10% "exception" is when a bad jump occurs with basestealer/pitcher/catcher (high bottom #/weak hold and/or weak arm) combos like Reyes/Liriano/Coste.