The Double Play

[BRIANSIELSKI]

In your opinions ... what are good, average, and bad ranges for double plays on the batter cards (106 chances)?

Good = 0 to 12
Average = 13 to 20
Bad = 20 and up

????

and why so?

Doc

[BRIANSIELSKI]

bump?
thoughts anyone?

[childsmwc]

The Double Play chances on a hitters card ranges from 0 to 34. The median point is somewhere around 19, so the average range is probably from 15 to 24.

The DP is something I place very little weight on when evaluating a player though. Remember that even when a DP roll comes up, there is probably only about a 20% chance that a DP situation exists, for the DP to occur.

A rough calculations for how many DP's a player will hit during the year from his own card would be DP Chances/216*Expected PA's*20%. So if you assume 700 Plate appearances, the worst DP hitters will hit into a DP

34/216*700*20%= 22 Times.

Obviously this number would be higher based on the average DP's from the pitchers that were faced, but that is a constant among all hitters, so your DP outcomes is probably 22 additional outs for the worst hitters over a course of a season.

Bbrool

[Mean Dean]

22 is a helluva lot though, really. Let's say that guy with 700 PA walked 60 times, so he had 640 AB... and let's say he hit .300, so he had 192 hits. If you consider each of the double plays as canceling out hits, subtracting 22 hits would lower his average from .300 to .266! That's a big deal.

You do get one "freebie" per team: You can greatly decrease one hitter's DPs by hitting him leadoff, since he'll often either be leading off innings or hitting behind 8th and 9th hitters who (usually) don't get on base all that much. (This, of course, assumes the player can hit well enough to deserve to get the most PA on the team.) In any other scenario, GIDP are very significant.

[BRIANSIELSKI]

Thanks for your thoughts.

If you had someone like Abreu lead off (50+ chances OBP), then who would you rather see behind him? I'd think someone that has a lower double play rating.

Just some musings......

[qksilver69]

I am very DP conscious with my hitters & avoid 16+ DP guys as much as possible. For my #2 hitter I look for 10 or less.

[zonachoke]

DeanT's math is a little off... largely due to a failure to take into account that a hitter's gbA chances aren't just on their own card.

Total DP chances would be based on:
*gbA on hitter's card
*average gbA on pitchers' cards (my guess is about 8)
*gbA on IF gbX chances (if the weighted average range of your opponents 5 IF (P, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS) is 2.5, the net effect is about 10 gbA)

So a guy like Joe Mauer (30 gbA both sides of his card) will hit into a DP 48/216 times that the DP is in order: 22.22% of DP opportunities.

Suppose he bats in the 2 or 3 hole & gets 680 PA and the DP is in order 20% of the time a batter is NOT leading off a game: 22.22% x 20% x 680 = about 30 DP

Suppose he bats leadoff and gets 700 PA in 155 games. Then his odds go to: 22.22% x 20% x 545 (700-155 leadoff PA) = about 24 DP.

[DavidRis]

I should know this.....but how do you tell if a guy has a high dp???
aside from gba I mean???
:?