by MARCPELLETIER » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:38 pm
Well, it's pretty obvious that the BoSox management is into the defensive metrics.
According to UZR metrics, 2009 results, a full-time Beltre would save 30 runs compared to a full-time Lowell. Cameron over Ellsbury is another 25 saved runs. 55 runs saved, or 5 or 6 more wins. With a huge upside that Ellsbury returns to positive numbers now that he plays left field.
Of Course, Cameron's offense is not likely to equate Bay's. Bill James predicts an offensive decrease equivalent to 3 wins. But this decrease is likely to be compensated by Scaturo's performance over what the Red Sox had at ss over the last years (Scaturo performed over the last two years, on average roughly 3 wins better, offense and defense accounted, compared to Gonzalez/Lugo/Lowrie.)