Final Data: Top 25 Starting Pitchers predicted for next year

[Jerlins]

Hopefully, not a lot out of order, as I am looking at 3 of the top 25 in the keeper league I am in (Johnson, Beckett, Wolf), though sadly another team has the top 2. Yikes!!! Schnoogens (OTH) can take a bow for that one-two punch.

[maligned]

My predicted list (I missed 3):
1 Zack Greinke S7*
2 Tim Lincecum S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Javier Vazquez S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Josh Johnson S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7
8 Ubaldo Jimenez S7*
9 CC Sabathia S7*
10 Justin Verlander S7*
11 Roy Halladay S7*
12 Josh Beckett S7*
13 Matt Cain S7*
14 Joel Pineiro S7*
15 Jair Jurrjens S7* (TSN #26)
16 Adam Wainwright S7*
17 Jake Peavy S7
18 Jon Lester S6*
19 Ted Lilly S6
20 Scott Baker S6* (appr. #40)
21 Robinson Tejeda S5
22 Randy Wolf S6* (#28)
23 Josh Outman S6
24 Gavin Floyd S7
25 Ryan Rowland-Smith S7

TSN's List:
1.Lincecum 9.25
2.Greinke 8.79
3.Haren 7.99
4.Vazquez 7.79
5.Hernandez 7.78
6.Carpenter 7.51
7.Johnson 7.11
8.Sabathia 7.02
9.Halladay 6.50
10.Lilly 6.17
11.Cain 6.09
12.Pineiro 6.05
13.Verlander 5.87
14.Jimenez 5.78
15.Peavy 5.53
16.Outman 5.52
17.Bedard 5.42 MISS
18t.Beckett 5.35
18t.W. Rodriguez 5.35 MISS
20.Lester 5.34
21.Floyd 5.32
22.Happ 5.02 MISS
23.Wainwright 4.93
24.Tejeda 4.91
25.Rowland-Smith 4.83

I had Bedard, Rodriguez, and Happ all just outside the top 25. My wrong inclusions were on pitchers that can have lineups loaded up against them--a hard righty, a hard lefty, and (the biggest miss) an extreme reverse righty (7L). The biggest problem inclusion on my list (Baker) will be a very nice bargain as an S6* for 3.84 depending on the park and the hitters in your division. If his price did not include a balance adjustment, he would be near the Top 25. Also, two that I overrated by numerous spots (Jimenez, Wainwright) are hard righties that needed balance adjustments I didn't give.

[Jerlins]

Excellent job Maligned. Let's not make this a one time thing. THANK YOU!!!

[JMP1]

Interesting.... The Red Sox give Lackey $75 million for five years and he's not even in the Top 25.

[Jerlins]

[quote:12c828e39c="JMP 1"]Interesting.... The Red Sox give Lackey $75 million for five years and he's not even in the Top 25.[/quote:12c828e39c]

Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo J.D (Nancy) Drew, Coco Crisp, Matt Clement to name a few. While Epstein has a decent record trading, his track record for free agent signings is not exactly steller.

[maligned]

[quote:7e8161fc8e="JMP 1"]Interesting.... The Red Sox give Lackey $75 million for five years and he's not even in the Top 25.[/quote:7e8161fc8e]

This list obviously isn't a list of the best real pitchers. Lackey's been in the top 25 every year until 2009. And if he had been a star* starter like usual, he would have been right there for the top 25. Plus, he's like Oswalt. He's a bend but don't break pitcher that never looks as good as he really is in a Strat uniform. He allows too many baserunners in Strat. Both of them during their normal good years allow all their homeruns or extra basehits with nobody on base. With guys on base, they walk more and give up very little SLG. Check out Oswalt's data historically. It's uncanny. Again, Lackey is similar. Remember, statistics are like bikinis: they show a lot, but not everything. These guys are great strategical, "big moment" pitchers (come after you when they should, nibble when they should, etc.) and have a mental aspect that doesn't show up on paper. I obviously love the revelations we find in stats, but it's still not the end of the story with a guy like Lackey. (By the way, I'm not an angels or red sox fan...just an observer).