An Old Trick... Strategy 101

An Old Trick... Strategy 101

Postby bleacher_creature » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:58 pm

Did you know that you can mitigate the amount a player would be injured by checking Hit & Run, and Bunt more? Why?

With these settings, and inury prone player will get more results read off the Super Advanced H & R and Bunt charts. In fact there is 0% chance of injury when a player H & Rs or bunts off of these charts.

50% of the time, the results will still be an adjusted result off the pitchers' cards (see charts). In which case there is 0% chance of injury.

As you know, checking H & R/Bunt more will limit this player's power opportunities.
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Postby bleacher_creature » Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:37 pm

I've got Navarro 8th, and Uribe 9th vs RHPs. Uribe is set to "hit and run" plus "bunt more". Damon is leading off with good clutch and a .300+ avg.

Damon is so far driving in runs as expected.

Here's a stat that Sabermetricians should look at more: batting average.
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Postby blueiguana » Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:34 pm

While this strategy works, it does have one significant flaw -- in general player who is good enough that you'd worry about his getting hurt also is good enough that you wouldn't want to waste his at bats on bunts and hit and runs.
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Postby PAULMINICUCCI » Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:52 pm

I had a question on MCAbell's chart. It says that with the bases loaded and two out a runner will score .74 of the time. I am wondering if that is so high because a single brings in two runs, a HR brings in four. In other words the matrix is the probability of runner(s) scoring on a chance, so even though hitters do not average .74 OBP with the bases loaded a successful hit may plate multiple runners. Is that how it works?
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Postby cummings2 » Sun Apr 02, 2006 9:01 pm

So...you H&R and bunt more often to avoid injuries? hmmmm...well, considering the bunt is pretty much an out with the chance (10%) of turning into a single and the H&R, in the most optimal condition leaves the hitter with 27% chance of a hit from the charts then we have to deduce the hitter at risk of injury is extremely valuable defensively and offensively he's almost irrelevant.

Well, the fielder better be a 2B or a SS with a 1 rating and low errors and have an injury of 5 or 6, still both those strategies can only be used with a man on base, the H&R can not run with a man on 3rd, considering the fielder is not a good hitter, it is likely he'll hit lower in the LU, if the LU is arranged in a fairly conventional way, the OBP ahead of him will be the lower in the team, therefore the ammount of times the hitter will actually "benefit" from the injury protecting strategy will be much lower than expected. My feeling is the injury will still happen and in the mean time the strategy will backfire on the offensive production.

Another point to consider is that other than Pokey Reese and Adam Everett in the 05 set I don't see any good defensive player injury prone worth protecting, and those two are not particularily ideal to either bunt or hit and run. Personally I think their mere prescence already hurts the offense, they don't need my help for that.

What I do with injury prone players is that I drop them in the order to reduce their ABs. That's all. Just My Opinion though, I am sure you'll get good results from trying it.
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