by MARCPELLETIER » Fri Apr 07, 2006 1:29 pm
Well, in low hitting teams, I would probably push to have Youkilis in the 2nd slot, for his on-base and his low gbA numbers (although his weak card is a turn-off for this slot). 2005's Mohr was a perfect case for the 2nd slot in all non-Coors team.
But let's say, for the sake of the discussion, that your 2nd-3rd-4th-5th slot are already decided. You are hesitating between Youkilis and some other player that has a stealing star for the first slot (with the other going lower in the line-up). A runner with a star, if he's on first base, will increase the batting average of the second hitter by about 3 chances, the third hitter by about 2 chances, and the fourth hitter by about 1.5 chances (in fact, all together, it's 6 chances), when leading off an inning. You will also avoid a similar number of double-plays (at least, in leagues as ours that insist so much on good middle infield). Add to this that these increases of on-base happen in front of your best hitters, so it adds more to your team than regular on-base. Finally, players with a stealing star are usually faster as well, and this can be an appreciable advantage if your fourth hitter has a lot of doubles or if your fifth hitter has a lot of singles.
As you suggested, the advantages of the are not completely lost if you play the player with a stealing star lower in the line-up, but the chances of benefiting from this star will be definitively smaller, given the lower chances of leading-off an inning for a player in a lower slot in the line-up.
So, my own rule of thumb is that I am willing to have a player with a stealing star and four-five lower chances of on-base over Youkilis (for a lefty hitter, I would probably go as low as 8 under, given that rhp usually give more on-base to lh)---but I could go as low as 8 to 10 under if the player has only single or walks on his card.