Entering playoffs as top seed - a curse?

[JAYDINGESS1]

I have noticed something that I want to share. And compare.

I have had many teams enter the playoffs as the top seed only to go down in the first round - mostly in 3 games. Just happened twice, once in the JaserD tourney and once in a vet league. Both lost in 3 games and wasn't even close. So I started thinking, out of the many teams with the best record, how many a) made it to the finals b) won the championship?

a) 2 teams made it to the finals (out of 7 top seeds)
b) 1 team won the championship

I have a better record with teams making the finals not being the top seed. Does anyone else have this issue (or non-issue) or am I just seeing an anomile (ck sp)?

Jay

[2cityfan]

That's been my experience too.. I have made the playoffs in 4 straight times.. 2 of my playoff teams were seeded #1 and had the best record in the league.. one of my teams was the number 2 seed... All my teams have lost in the first round... I guess it is just bad luck??? It is hard to take my last team won 99 games, and went down in the first round...

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=34341

[ed1447]

I haven't had many teams, but one team had best record in league and lost in 1st round, three games by blow outs. Another team had third best record in league and won the championship. Only two teams, but...

[Stoney18]

Jay, sorry about that. I didn't expect to win that series. I was 4-8 against you during the year going 2-4 home and away. Your run differential was +162, mine +40.


Just a theory which probably doesn't apply with this series,

Is the #1 record, in this case 99-63, based on dominating your division?

Other teams were 25,25, & 26 games behind in the standings. WC might be in a tougher/more balanced division and the record might not truly reflect the strength of the team. In this case the 2nd best record in our league was in my division 98-64.

Again, just a theory. I haven't looked at other leagues yet and see if this holds true. It might just be the randomness of a short series.

See you in the next round.

[JAYDINGESS1]

Good job Stoney - you deserved it, tough way to go all season.

[J-Pav]

[b:e1b8d81d2d]Dingo[/b:e1b8d81d2d]:

33 Team sample.

Team w/ best overall record was...

CHAMP nine times (27%).
Lost Finals nine times (27%)
Lost Semis fifteen times (46%)

Of those 15 times, they lost 10 times to the WC from the [i:e1b8d81d2d]same[/i:e1b8d81d2d] division.

Small samples will skew the results. The Champs had a best run of four leagues in a row. Of the last 11 leagues I was in, the best record was Champs only once!

Otherwise, I was actually pretty surprised myself to see the distribution so fair. It often [i:e1b8d81d2d]seems[/i:e1b8d81d2d] unfair.

It appears that...

A. The short five game semi-final series is truly a coin flip.
B. There is some evidence of a WC from the same division curse!

Hope that helps a bit!

:D

[JAYDINGESS1]

Thanks J-Pav. Kinda sums it up although, like you said it is a small sampling. But, put mine with yours and it becomes a bit larger. Can't really understand it and the home field advantage thing compounds it even more. But, what the hey, I'm gonna keep spending. Love it too much. It gets me outta bed at 5:00 a.m. for my morning update, when I could sleep until 6. Thanks for your effort.



Jay (Dingo)

[JKolak]

A best of 5 semifinal series sucks period!!! The hotest team and not the best team wins!!! TSN has been told many times to up the ante to a best of 7 series on all fronts. No action taken. I hate playing as a top seed against a wild card team in my own division. I may have gone 18-6 against that wild card team during the regular season but lose in 4 or 5 games to it. From my own observation, stud starting pitching usually wins a short series.

[JAYDINGESS1]

OK J-Pav - here is a 27 game sample.

Top seed;

Lost Semis - 17 times - (63%)
Lost Finals - 5 times - (18.5%)
Won Champ. - 5 times - (18.5%)

Add mine to yours

Won Champ - 14 times - (23.3%)
Lost Finals - 14 times - (23.3%)
Lost Semis - 32 times - (53.3%)

Alright, now hear me out. A conspiracy theory. If you were in a service business and wanted to have as many repeat customers as possible, how would you do that? Well, if a team is a top seed, they had a good season and will return for another. On the other hand, a team that played a little better than .500 may come back, may not, depending on how dedicated they are to this game and community. So, they insure two repeat customers all at once. Am I Mel Gibson or what?

Jay

[Play By The Rules]

Ah, the dreaded Wild Card curse...