Secret Formula: The Theory in Action

[J-Pav]

Alright, here's a link to my team, which opens for business tonite:

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=230204][b:1f3541f48d][size=18:1f3541f48d][u:1f3541f48d]Secret Formula 2009[/u:1f3541f48d][/size:1f3541f48d][/b:1f3541f48d][/url]

[u:1f3541f48d]Draft Card[/u:1f3541f48d]

1. Furcal ($6.84)
2. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Roberts ($7.23)[/color:1f3541f48d] Iwamura ($6.56)
3. Mauer ($7.93)
4. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Jones, C. ($8.32)[/color:1f3541f48d] Longoria ($6.43)
5. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Upton, B.J. ($5.89)[/color:1f3541f48d] Ankiel ($5.22)
6. Dempster ($6.14)
7. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Mussina ($3.90)[/color:1f3541f48d] Zambrano ($3.90)
8. Anderson, J. ($3.40)
9. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Balfour ($5.70)[/color:1f3541f48d] Wagner ($4.15)
10. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Santana, E. ($6.95)[/color:1f3541f48d] Lowe ($6.38)
11. Dobbs ($1.62)
12. Pagan ($1.17)
13. Sexson ($2.17)
14. Renteria ($1.01)
15. Pierre ($0.63)
16. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Snider ($1.48)[/color:1f3541f48d] Boggs ($1.24)
17. Lewis ($2.70)
18. Perez, O. ($1.55)
19. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Martinez, V. ($0.82)[/color:1f3541f48d] Ardoin ($0.58)
20. Pinto ($0.92)
21. Cruz, J. ($0.85)
22. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Lopez, A. ($0.62)[/color:1f3541f48d] Corpas ($0.62)
23. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Shouse ($0.58)[/color:1f3541f48d] Acosta ($0.58)
24. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Romero ($0.57)[/color:1f3541f48d] Crain ($0.57)
25. Sanchez, A. ($0.50)

Thoughts on the Draft Card: Roberts and Jones were throwaway picks, but you have to gamble a bit here and see if you can come up with a couple of those "players that everybody wants." Sometimes they sneak through (demonstrated by an undrafted Victorino). I actually thought I'd get Upton as a five pick here, and never considered Victorino this far down. Everything else went as expected, although I usually get Shouse and/or Lopez at the bottom of the card.

Funny thing on the way to getting only 14 of 25 and the first waiver pick: I really only need to fill four spots in a big way and have $11 mil plus in clear salary to do it: CF (dropped Ankiel outright), 2B (Iwamura won't do here), *SP (to replace Zambrano), and a quality RP (which is always readily available). Not too bad, eh?

[u:1f3541f48d]Waivers Claims[/u:1f3541f48d]

1. Victorino ($6.45) for Boggs
2. Fontenot ($8.13) for Iwamura
3. Saunders ($5.12) for Zambrano
4. Johnson, J. ($4.12) for Corpas
5. Evans ($0.57) for Crain
6. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Danks ($5.66) for Zambrano*[/color:1f3541f48d]
7. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Buehrle ($3.30) for Zambrano*[/color:1f3541f48d]
8. [color=darkred:1f3541f48d]Lopez, F. ($0.57) for no drop*[/color:1f3541f48d]

[color=darkred:1f3541f48d]* did not pick up[/color:1f3541f48d]

Thoughts on Waiver Claims: I really wanted Pedroia or Fontenot at 2B, but this was hurting my salary construction, which was getting too top heavy. My plan was to reassess 3B (Longoria) if I got Fontenot; however, post waivers Augie Ojeda became available, so I opted to pick him up as a heavily used utility infielder (remember the injuries at 2B, SS and 3B) and I went with Hudson at 2B, who was also still available.

After a couple of drops and moves post-waivers, I ended up with this:

Final Roster (Three Stud Starter Strategy)

Pitchers (10)

1. Lowe
2. Dempster
3. Saunders
4. Perez, O.
5. Sanchez, A.

6. Wagner
7. Johnson, J.
8. Brown, A.
9. Pinto
10. Cruz, J.

Hitters (15)

1. Mauer
2. Nieves
3. Dillon
4. Hudson
5. Ojeda
6. Longoria
7. Dobbs
8. Furcal
9. Renteria
10. Lewis
11. Pagan
12. Pierre
13. Victorino
14. Anderson, J.
15. Guillen, J.


I. Salary Construction (Pitching)


Starters

Suggested Actual

1. $6.80.....$6.38
2. $6.34.....$6.14
3. $5.94.....$5.12
4. $4.23.....$1.55
5. $1.29.....$0.50
_______ _____
$24.60.....$19.69


Relievers

Suggested Actual

1. $4.81.....$4.15
2. $2.48.....$4.12
3. $1.59.....$1.90
4. $0.82.....$0.92
5. $0.62.....$0.85
________ _____
$10.32.....$11.94


Total Pitching

Suggested Actual

$34.92..... $31.63

Thoughts on Pitching: I cheated my salary allowance here as I went with Oliver Perez as my fourth starter. I decided that in PNC, Perez will be "good enough" at $1.55, enabling me to upgrade three of my hitters big time. I could have been more sincere with the salary construction here and have gone with Buehrle or Olsen as a fourth starter. But in my estimation, I gain much more with Victorino, Longoria and Hudson over their one mil less counterparts ([i:1f3541f48d]Kapler, Derosa and Asdrubal Cabrera??[/i:1f3541f48d]) This is the part where you have to squint a little to see the bigger picture.

Plus, in assessing my own game, I find my run scoring forecast is usually weaker than my pitching forecast. Throwing a little money at the problem will help, I hope.


II. Salary Construction (Hitters)

1. $8.40..... $7.93
2. $6.16..... $6.84
3. $5.23..... $6.45
4. $4.59..... $6.43
5. $4.03..... $5.66
6. $3.48..... $3.40*
7. $3.09..... $2.70
8. $2.38..... $1.62*
9. $2.02..... $1.60
10. $1.43..... $1.18*

Bench: $4.27..... $4.50***

* Platoon

Total
________ _____
$45.08..... $48.31


Thoughts on hitting: Locked and loaded. Weak on home run power, but in a pitcher's park you need speed, defense and extra-base hits. In my opinion, my team will benefit from visiting a hitter's park, where Longoria is more valuable, while home run power teams visting me at PNC will be penalized more than they know.


III. Middle Defense

Suggested Actual

2B: 2e10 2B: 1e14
SS: 2e16 SS: 2e20
CF: 2e4 CF: 1e2

Thoughts on middle defense: none, the box is checked.


IV. Score Runs And Do Not Allow Runs

For grins, I averaged out the runs scored of my players in each of their last five seasons to kind of give myself a general idea of what I might expect from my offense. It's not an exact science, obviously, but it forecasts that in a vanilla season, I could probably see about 768 runs scored. Remember: The Three Stud Starters teams average around 742 runs scored, or 4.58 per game. They surrender a 3.79 ERA for a net runs advantage of about 0.79 runs per game. Hopefully, I'll be in this vicinity if things go according to plan.

V. Ballparks And Players Suited To Those Parks

I actually mapped out the Average Ballpark I'll be facing over all 162 games. It follows very closely my home ballpark of PNC (12-12-7-1) and comes out at (11-11-8-5) over my entire season. This works for me, as I'll be starting three "weak home run power" players in the line-up. That is, my lack of power should not hamper me so much on the road, as my team is designed for most all pitcher's parks (good speed, solid defense, reliable hitting). Visiting teams designed for power will find it much harder to score in PNC.

VI. Intangibles and HAL

1. My injury prone infield is susceptible to causing me some frustrations.

2. Two division rivals have hitter's parks.

3. I'm lacking in Home Run power.

4. HAL [i:1f3541f48d]absolutely hates[/i:1f3541f48d] pre-season posts like this (peace be upon Him).

However:

5. Lowe, Dempster and Saunders are double-play factories (plus very strong ranges at 2B, SS and 3B).

6. Mauer's arm at C, Victorino's arm in CF, Guillen's arm in RF (vs. LHP).

7. Good team speed (both baserunning and stealing), with Pierre to pinch run.

So, that's pretty much it. We've got the theory part down pretty good, now it's time for the execution part. Check back in eight weeks...

[tcochran]

Great post. Please don't wait for 8 weeks to update, though. Let us know how you think through your lineup and what little tweaks you make on a routine basis, because of that night's opponent.

[drew6013]

Whats your thoughts on going with Hudson over Iwamura ? Can you walk me through that a little bit.


Also... Furcal? I didn't think the Secret forumla post would include such a high injury rating at a premium position.

[AeroDave10]

The guy that doesn't make sense to me is Longoria. He's your best HR hitter, and he's a bad fit for PNC. You had better hope he doesn't decide to get hurt while you go on the road to those two hitter parks in your division.

[Salty]

First off,
thanks for the post- it was excellent as was your other one.
I was very very curious to see how someone else set up their autodraft and subsequent waiver selections.

Secondly-
As a relative online newb- learned by playing the card game- and am finding that certain players consistently don't perform like their cards.
Ex. Vlad, the aforementioned Longoria, any Dmitri Young card-
and for me especially Manny.
I've kind of had to try and test a few players instead of just relying on the cards.
any insights into this?


Saltman

[J-Pav]

[b:abf521411b]tcochran[/b:abf521411b]:

I fool around with my lineups sometimes, but I don't tweak settings. My teams largely run on autopilot. If I do "tweak", it's only for match-up pitching, which I don't have with this team. My teams are very boring, but I like it that way.

[b:abf521411b]drew6013[/b:abf521411b]:

Statistically, Hudson and Iwamura are basically interchangeable cards. You pay less for Hudson because of the Injury 3. Having said that, Iwamura regularly seems to hit far below his card on the teams I've seen him on, while Hudson often hits .300. I needed the extra $1 mil for other things, so for me I'm happy with the trade off (and I have Ojeda to back him up).

Furcal might be the best card in the set. The Secret Formula makes no rules about high injury cards. I just think it's a good card, esp at SS, which is very hard to get production from this year. That's why I like Theriot so much, but I didn't want to use him on this team.

[b:abf521411b]AeroDave[/b:abf521411b]:

Well, I actually wanted Chipper but I didn't get him! Longoria is the right guy on the bus here. He hits for power, has some defense and steals the occasional base. The guy I like at this price is Gerut, but I believe he was gone. The drop off after Longoria is basically Prado, then no one.

It's much easier to get better production from the low dollar outfielders, I think. There's just no one at 3B at the lower end that made sense to me. I did agonize over Glaus or Longoria. In the end, I needed the extra few cents. I can't believe Glaus and Wright went undrafted.

[b:abf521411b]El-Saltman[/b:abf521411b]:

The boards are full of guys complaining about underperforming cards. You learn from these posts and your own trial and error. Remember too, there's a lot of variation of performance league over league. Check your ratings book and play the percentages. It will pay off over time.

[AeroDave10]

Can you put a link to your team so we can see it?

[J-Pav]

I did link the team!

Click on Secret Formula 2009 at the top-

[AeroDave10]

[quote:76d2880836="J-Pav"]I did link the team!

Click on Secret Formula 2009 at the top-[/quote:76d2880836]

Groovy.

[keyzick]

Love the post J-Pav...and interesting to see it play out every morning when I check our boxscores.

A few comments/feedback:

- I agree with your SS assessment, but I think you could have gotten Furcal with a lower pick. But I don't typically go after him, so maybe your draft experience has seen him snatched early?

- Very solid up the middle...I missed on Victorino in the waivers, now I know why!

- Not much pop, although like you say, some of those guys will flourish on the road in hitters parks, while still built for your park. And you seem to have started out strong, albeit only 6 games in.

- I like going 2 strong righty SP*'s in PNC (Lowe, Dempster fit the bill), and then fill out the rotation with 2 lefties in the $4M or less category (you mentioned Olsen, love him, never seems to disappoint). I don't think Saunders performs as well as his cost. Like you said, Perez should suffice in your park

- Relief corps looks solid.


Hope to see you in the Finals!!