by PAULMINICUCCI » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:29 pm
I echo Mooseman. I have exactly the same problems and I have 11 pitchers on most of my teams. I have asked Bernie if we could do a work-group of really successful players (NOT ME- I will be happy to do staff work) to figure out what they think each setting actually does or does not do and do a guide so at least we know what HAL is thinking. We keep harping on HAL like he is a sentient being but of course he is a bunch of code. The question is what is the code and when if at all does the manager strategy impact the actions.
The thread on bad relief decisions was very helpful in my book because we documented thirty or so problems, many of them like Mooseman's where you just cannot figure out what HAL is doing. Like I had a team with Gordon on it, pitcher's park, I had him set as closer on both sides and in a max close setting. He only got the call 50% of the time in save situations ( I began to suspect the C2 rating was at fault- I forget in 2004 Gordon was a great set-up guy) so I said that sucks and set the close rating to regular and tried Gordon in set-up with a do not use before 8th (instead of 9th rating) trying to get him more innings. Well that worked to a degree but because he has a even balance rating HAL would use him for any one-bat experience instead of using him for basic set-up, all the while the Witasicks and so forth were getting shelled with the wrong batters. Then he was gone and in comes Mesa, Howry or Taverez (who never ever pitch up to their stats) in the 9th to get shelled.
I started counting my late inning losses and they were atrocious. I lost 40% of my games in the 8th or 9th in some cases. Like Mooseman, I remember four teams in one night lost 9 games by one or two runs in the 8th or 9th. I mean we were ahead coming into the 8th and lost the games.
All of them had a Izzy, or Wagner or Rivera or Gordon on them.
Recently I had a team in 2005 that I forgot to set my individual pitcher settings. HAL did the wrong thing almost all the time. I had a LH 7 get most of his batters versus RH (Shouse) hitters and my RH guy Dotel had almost all lefties. I said what the hell is wrong with these guys and saw my ratings were not set. I did set them and it did improve their effectiveness, so I do think the settings have an impact. the question is what is the impact.
I do think though because HAL is doing the managing for both teams that presents a problem that usually resolves intself in favor of the hitter. HAL sees two LH hitters coming up and he goes to the LH and then HAL now managing the other side says "Nice move chump" and pinch-hits a rH, which then the picther HAL has to eat and then he either forgets about the next LH batter coming up and brings in a RH or the batting HAL gets him again. because the offense gets the last say the maneuvers generally favor them.
The biggest bugaboo is switch-hitters. HAL should use the even rated pitcher for that and I try to always have an even guy in the pen, but he doesn't he only sees that the Swicth hitter batted left last time and sends in a LH. He gets a hit and then he brings in the even rated guy now and the other team has thhree LH hitters in a row. that's a typical mistake.
I do think there is a thread of truth in the more is better idea. If someone is willing to do an experiment I am willing to burn a team, what we could do is have one team with 12 pitchers including 7 pure relief guys and someone else can do a varient of that like only three pure relievers, same funding and see if they are put into the same league if the 12 pitcher team does better. I mean if you had 7 relief picthers maybe HAL would make less errors.
I think ultimately the best thing to do is have a Petco team with a bunch of medium grade .300 hitters and seven 1 to 2 million dollar relievers and just win baby. That's my theory on why there are so many Petco teams, and the answer is you can cover HAL's errors with a bunch of cheap pitchers.