Pierre

[bleacher_creature]

1. How do you figure there has to be less than two outs for the CF's arm to come into play? That's wrong.

2. I have played many CD ROM seasons, trying weak armed CFs. A +3 in particular will hurt you A LOT. How many wins I don't exactly know. 5-10 per year? MAybe others can chime in here.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I am not sure who's the next guy you are referring to, but in any case, what I wanted to dismiss is the following statement of yours:
[quote:bce359a781]
where as the arm rating BARELY EFFECTS THE GAME AT ALL [/quote:bce359a781]

My example (granted, I took AJones) shows that the impact can be quite large. Basically, I just showed that, the difference of arms between AJones to Pierre is probably worth 0.5 runs everytimes a man from second base tries to score.

According to your table, this situation (any situation with at least a man on second) occurs 21% of all baseball situations, most of them coming with 1 or 2 outs. A defensive team plays about 6000 AB. So potentially, there is an average of 21% of 6000 AB = 1260 plays where a runner on 2nd can score from a single.

The question now becomes: how many of these 1260 plays will involve a centerfielder throwing home? Honestly, I don't know. It depends on the pitcher's card, on the hitter. But consider this: in super-advanced rules, many single** are transform into single (cf), so there is evenmore occasions where the arm of the cf is under pressure. I think that a very, very conservative approximation is to say that 5% of the 1260 plays will imply the arm of the cf. Using this very conservative number, we have that 63 plays, minimally, will involve cf arms. So, the difference between AJones and Pierre is likely to induce a difference of 32 runs, at the very least.

This was only for single + man on second.

Consider now flyB with man on 3rd : (about 10 runs)
Consider double with a man on first: 15-20 runs.
Consider runners advancing from 1st to 3rd.

Arm ratings at cf do not "barely" effects the game.

[MARCPELLETIER]

BTW, I am not saying that Pierre is not worth the try. He is actually my current cf on the team I am now managing. And I don't have a cf late-inning replacement.

But I have a special pitching rotation; and my opponents aren't very fast. So I hope I will be able to attenuate the impact of his arm.

But it will definitively be there.

[bleacher_creature]

Excellent work MW.

I said before, and I'll repeat it again. Many of us don't think twice about plating a "3" at 3B, but abhor the thought of doing so in CF. Meanwhile, the chance of their range coming into play on an X-chart referral is exactly the same, albeit with the CF giving a few (and I mean few) XBHs.

[1crazycanuk]

"...anyway, I would gladly take the pierres and damons of the game and play them at center without any thought, and if you want to substitute a range 3 CF when you play against me, please do, that much more of a chance for me to score"

milezd...no need to be rude guy. If you weren't...that is how it came across.

[milezd]

no, sorry, I didn't mean to come across like that, it just perplexed me how many times I read about people judging the quality of an OFer by their arm rating, and I am still skeptical of LM's numbers

[1crazycanuk]

No problem milezd. I'm glad you could clarify it. Going by the chart I had a look at before, it is better to have Pierre in the OF than Manny. That's why on my team I have Ford in LF and Manny DHing.

On a side note...anyone ever use Higginson? He's doing great for me on one of my Petco teams!

[Mean Dean]

[quote:f70781f873]I have played many CD ROM seasons, trying weak armed CFs. A +3 in particular will hurt you A LOT. How many wins I don't exactly know. 5-10 per year? MAybe others can chime in here. [/quote:f70781f873]Okay, I'll chime in... that sounds completely wrong. 10 wins would be the difference between Babe Ruth and Rey Ordonez's bat. It's certainly not going to be the difference between Brady Clark and Juan Pierre's arm.[quote:f70781f873]Many of us don't think twice about plating a "3" at 3B, but abhor the thought of doing so in CF. Meanwhile, the chance of their range coming into play on an X-chart referral is exactly the same, albeit with the CF giving a few (and I mean few) XBHs.[/quote:f70781f873]No, it's not a "few." Fielding OPS allowed can be found [url=http://web.archive.org/web/20010602070424/http://www.inconnect.com/~dcmadsen/index.html]here[/url]. Let's compare 3B with a moderate # of errors, 20.

2e20 3B: 704 OPS allowed on a 3B(x)
3e20 3B: 880 OPS (176 OPS worse than a 2)
4e20 3B: 1056 OPS (176 OPS worse than a 3, 352 OPS worse than a 2)

Now let's compare CF with a moderate # of errors, 10.

2e10 CF: 665 OPS allowed on a CF(x)
3e10 CF: 1047 OPS (382 OPS worse than a 2)
4e10 CF: 1617 OPS (570 OPS worse than a 3, 952 OPS worse than a 2)

The extra bases given up by the bad-fielding OF add up [i:f70781f873]tremendously[/i:f70781f873], making CF a much more important position to have range at than 3B.

[tersignf]

Certainly...and the central question--as I think Luckyman was inferring--is you must figure out a net OPS to make any comparison. A statement such as Juan Pierre "always" or "never" really has no meaning without the environmental context--the rest of your team, your park, your opponents...
but clearly the range factor is the iceberg while the arm is the tip.

[DOUGGRAY]

[i:3b187e1cbb]where as the arm rating BARELY EFFECTS THE GAME AT ALL
[/i:3b187e1cbb]


play the CD-ROM game in NET leagues for only about 10 games and then get back to us.

Play ATG2 and get back to us. +arms will hurt you a lot in any league where batters have speed.

Besides all that, why cant I get into leagues with guys who think like this? :D :D