bullpen blown saves

Postby Valen » Fri May 19, 2006 1:35 pm

I think the high number of blown saves is a reflection of the better than real life quality lineups. Plus the fact that half the time the pitcher's card has no impact on the outcome. You are bound to get some rolls on hitter cards that run up the blown save count. And that 50/50 algorithm makes it very difficult for strat to duplicate any extreme performances. Just something to live with and adjust to. Once you do the fun of the game can return.
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Postby Mean Dean » Fri May 19, 2006 2:58 pm

I don't think 20 or so BS is anything unusual at all, considering that a quarter of the way through this real-life season, [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type3&sort=blownSaves&split=0&season=2006]most teams seem to be around 4 BS[/url], which'd be a pace around 16 for an average team. Three real-life teams are on pace to have 40.

It's not like a blown save necessarily means the guy came into the 9th inning with bases empty and a lead, and then let it all slip away. It's a blown save [i:55602b7e91]any[/i:55602b7e91] time a reliever relinquishes the lead with more than 3 innings left to go. But you can still win a good percentage of such games, since there's still time left to come back. And if I'm not mistaken, it'd also be a blown save if, for instance, the starter loads the bases in the 8th inning, leaves with a 2-1 lead, and then the reliever comes in and gives up a sac fly. A sucky situation to be sure, but not really the reliever's fault either.

IMO, it's only an important stat for the closer. For non-closers, it's just the equivalent of relief losses, which you obviously don't love to see, but it doesn't have the same "this guy singlehandedly lost a game for you" effect that the term "blown save" suggests. You're not gonna maintain the lead every single time you get one; no one's bullpen is [i:55602b7e91]that[/i:55602b7e91] good. And it may not even be the reliever's fault, if the starter left him a mess.
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