The secret to success

[schnoogens]

This is stupid. It does not matter what column they have their hits in. Done.

[wavygravy2k]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how Strat-O-matic determines which column is chosen as a player's best column? I think I read somewhere that it's ordered by batting average and sorted per team.

Another question is why did they decide to alternate each player's best column. I suppose one reason would be to help add to the suspense when rolling dice.

[coyote303]

[quote:f38ab277e0="wavygravy2k"]Out of curiosity, does anyone know how Strat-O-matic determines which column is chosen as a player's best column? I think I read somewhere that it's ordered by batting average and sorted per team.

Another question is why did they decide to alternate each player's best column. I suppose one reason would be to help add to the suspense when rolling dice.[/quote:f38ab277e0]

In the mid-60s, when there was only a basic side to the cards, it went like this. Each team had 20 players. The highest batting average on the team got a 3 column, the second highest a 2 column, and the third a 1 column. There were various other distinct patterns that got assigned in order all based on batting average. For some reason, I never paid attention if that's how they do it with the advanced cards!

I like how the best columns vary (even though I've been arguing that it doesn't make any difference statistically). I also used to play the (inferior to SOM) APBA baseball game where every hitter pattern was exactly the same. It's simply fun having the variety.

[RICHARDMILTER]

Side note; Once in the mid 1980s(I am not sure of the exact year, although I could figured it out if I had to) SOM issued all, or most of the pitchers' cards with the hits all in the same column(I am not sure if it was the 4 or the 6 column). This was not very popular among the hardcore Strat players of the day. Therefore Strat re-issued the pitchers' cards with the hits dispersed more evenly among their three columns.
So if some GMs want to be superstitious about which columns hits are placed in; you are not alone. But like all the level heads have mentioned; it really does not matter. As Coyote so wisely stated, "The dice have no memory". And past results have no bearing on future rolls.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:200705ad16]Another question is why did they decide to alternate each player's best column. I suppose one reason would be to help add to the suspense when rolling dice.[/quote:200705ad16]

Actually, tainted dice exist in the market. Any die with a non-centered weight is likely to fall on one face preferably to another. Mixing up columns is a good way to check that.

[ugrant]

"Gee, I hate being right all the time..." - Jeff Goldblum in "Jurassic Park." My first post mentioned this issue got heated and it would appear it's headed that way again, so I'll try to tone it down without resorting to mentioning something other than the issue itself.

First, my apologies to Rmilter if he took my comment personally, it wasn't meant that way although I guess it could be taken that way. If you'd like to "come on with it" (your words), I'd be glad to meet you in a 69 League since that's all I play these days.

Second, all the math everyone is quoting is correct. But it's not math that's the issue, it's odds. Take it however you wish: disregard it, make fun of it, take the focus off the issue and slam those that don't agree with you some more, or - gads! - think about it.

With all due respect,

ugrant

[voovits]

[quote:6f77192c9d="ugrant"]Statistical odds: chance of rolling a specific column in Strat, 1/6 (16.7%). Chance of duplicating that column in the next roll: 1/6. Chance of rolling some other column, 5/6 (83.3%).

There is an 83.3% chance the follow on roll will not be in the same column, that's the odds (determined by math). [b:6f77192c9d]The manager who uses same column hitters has only a 16.7% chance of getting a favorable outcome, while the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor.[/b:6f77192c9d] Small, but over the course of a season the odds are favorable it will occur enough to make a difference in his favor.
[/quote:6f77192c9d]

So you do know that 20% of 83.3 equals 16.66 right?
So based on the statistics you gave, (which by the way, odds and statistics are derived using math, hence it's part of math) you proved that it makes no difference.

[TomSiebert]

Fascinating thread.

UGrant, for his part, is correct. It is more likely that a second dice roll will occur OUTSIDE the same grid as the roll prior.

To better explain this, I provide a link to this "Let's Make a Deal" thread, where the advice was ALWAYS to pick the offer of the "other curtain" when Monty offered it to you at the big finish:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Here, try it yourself:
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/?version=1.6.0&browser=Mozilla&vendor=Sun_Microsystems_Inc.&flash=10.0.12

Y'see? It's morely likely that ANOTHER column's number will be thrown than the same column's number will be thrown again.

tws

[voovits]

Though quite interesting, the Monty Hall problem does not apply here. After say column 1 is rolled, no additional columns are eliminated as possibilities for the next roll, so it is not statistically advantageous to switch columns.

[TomSiebert]

voovits is correct. My apologies. That's why I majored in history, I suppose, not math....

tws