Super Hal and Fatigue - The Mystery Continues

[MARCPELLETIER]

Here's another one.

[code:1:327f4d931d]Bronx Bombers (10-9) IP H R ER BB SO HR PC ERA SCORESHEET
A.Pettitte 0 1/3 2 1 1 0 1 0 12 9.39 A1 A3
M.Rivera WIN(2-1) 8 2/3 14 12 12 4 4 3 170 8.80 A4
Totals 9 16 13 13 4 5 3

Beantowners (7-12) IP H R ER BB SO HR PC ERA SCORESHEET
J.Beckett 0 1/3 1 1 1 0 0 0 7 4.76 A1 A2
J.Papelbon LOSS(0-4) 8 2/3 25 17 17 3 13 1 195 15.79 A3
Totals 9 26 18 18 3 13 1

ATTENDANCE- 38,656 DATE- TIME- Night WEATHER- Average
UMPIRES- Eric Cooper, Marty Foster, Derryl Cousins, Angel Hernandez
T- 4:18
LEFT ON BASE- Bronx Bombers:11 Beantowners: 7
DOUBLE PLAYS- Bronx Bombers: 3 Beantowners: 1
ERRORS- R.Cano
DOUBLES- J.Damon(4th), B.Abreu(5th), A.Rodriguez-2(7th), J.Giambi(3rd),
X.Nady(7th), R.Cano(5th), M.Cabrera(1st), J.Drew-2(4th),
D.Pedroia-2(10th), K.Youkilis(6th), J.Lowrie(5th), M.Kotsay(5th)
TRIPLES- J.Damon(1st)
HOME RUNS- B.Abreu(2nd), J.Drew(4th), J.Bay(3rd), J.Lowrie(1st)
SACRIFICE HITS- D.Jeter
WALKS- J.Damon, D.Jeter, J.Giambi, K.Youkilis, M.Lowell, J.Bay, M.Kotsay
HIT BY PITCH- M.Cabrera, J.Varitek, C.Crisp
STRIKE OUTS- D.Jeter-3, B.Abreu, A.Rodriguez-2, J.Giambi, X.Nady-2, R.Cano,
I.Rodriguez-3, K.Youkilis, M.Lowell-2, J.Varitek, J.Lowrie
GIDP- R.Cano, D.Pedroia, M.Lowell, J.Varitek

Johnny Damon had 6 hits and 4 RBI at Fenway Park as the New York (AL) Bronx Bombers won in dramatic fashion coming back to beat the Boston Beantowners by the count of 18 to 13.

The win went to Mariano Rivera(2-1) who allowed 12 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings. Jonathan Papelbon(0-4) absorbed the loss in relief. He allowed a few too many baserunners giving up 25 hits and 3 walks in 8 and 2/3 innings.

Terry Francona was understandably not very talkative after his team's tough loss. He quickly showered and changed and when asked about the game had a terse, yet polite response, 'Hey fellows, that game was a heart-breaker to lose. Our guys gave it their all and played well - fate just wasn't smilin' on us tonight'


*** TOP OF INNING 1 ***
0 J.Damon 4- 8 6 Single b-1
0 1 D.Jeter 1 Sac Bunt 1-2 b-0
SUBSTITUTE P - Jonathan Papelbon
1 2 B.Abreu 1-10 4 Double 2-H b-2
1 2 A.Rodriguez 1-11 1 Ground Out b-0
2 2 J.Giambi 2- 7 11 5 Ground Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 1 ***
0 J.Drew 5- 9 10 4 Double b-2
0 2 D.Pedroia 4- 9 2 3 Double 2-H b-2
0 2 K.Youkilis 6- 6 5 Strike Out b-0
SUBSTITUTE P - Mariano Rivera
1 2 M.Lowell 5- 7 3 Strike Out b-0
2 2 J.Varitek 3- 9 6 Strike Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 2 ***
0 X.Nady 1- 8 5 Strike Out b-0
1 R.Cano 3- 9 1 Ground Out b-0
2 I.Rodriguez 3- 2 2 Pop Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 2 ***
0 C.Crisp 5- 8 6 Ground Out b-0
1 J.Bay 1- 6 20 4 Fly Out b-0
2 J.Lowrie 5- 7 6 Fly Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 3 ***
0 M.Cabrera 3- 9 3 Ground Out b-0
1 J.Damon 4-10 2 2 Single b-1
1 1 D.Jeter 5- 5 5 Strike Out b-0
2 1 B.Abreu 1- 5 3 Single 1-2 b-1
2 12 A.Rodriguez 5- 5 6 Strike Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 3 ***
0 M.Kotsay 1- 6 6 Single b-1
0 1 J.Drew 4- 4 5 Pop Out b-0
1 1 D.Pedroia 5- 8 5 1 Base Error - 2B 1-2 b-1
1 12 K.Youkilis 5- 3 4 Single 2-3 1-2 b-1
1 123 M.Lowell 5- 6 3 Strike Out b-0
2 123 J.Varitek 6- 6 3 Fly Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 4 ***
0 J.Giambi 6- 7 4 Strike Out b-0
1 X.Nady 1- 5 14 5 Double b-2
1 2 R.Cano 4- 5 5 Double 2-H b-2
1 2 I.Rodriguez 3- 6 5 Single 2-H b-1
1 1 M.Cabrera 4- 6 16 4 Single 1-2 b-1
1 12 J.Damon 4- 5 1 Double 2-H 1-3 b-2
1 23 D.Jeter 5- 6 4 Strike Out b-0
2 23 B.Abreu 3- 9 3 Ground Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 4 ***
0 C.Crisp 3-12 2 HBP b-1
0 1 J.Bay 6-11 1 Fly Out b-0
1 1 J.Lowrie 3-10 1 Double 1-H b-2
1 2 M.Kotsay 1-12 1 Ground Out 2-3 b-0
2 3 J.Drew 1- 5 6 Pop Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 5 ***
0 A.Rodriguez 2- 9 3 Strike Out b-0
1 J.Giambi 3- 7 4 Walk b-1
1 1 X.Nady 2- 8 5 Ground Out 1-2 b-0
2 2 R.Cano 5- 8 5 Ground Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 5 ***
0 D.Pedroia 3- 7 5 Fly Out b-0
1 K.Youkilis 2- 4 4 Walk b-1
1 1 M.Lowell 1- 5 6 Ground Out Double Play 1-o b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 6 ***
0 I.Rodriguez 5- 6 3 Strike Out b-0
1 M.Cabrera 4- 6 4 6 Double b-2
1 2 J.Damon 3- 9 5 Walk b-1
1 12 D.Jeter 3-12 16 6 Line Out b-0
2 12 B.Abreu 1- 6 7 1 Single 2-H 1-2 b-1
2 12 A.Rodriguez 4- 6 15 3 Single 2-H 1-3 b-2
2 23 J.Giambi 4- 6 4 1 Double 3-H 2-H b-2
2 2 X.Nady 1- 9 5 Strike Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 6 ***
0 J.Varitek 1- 4 3 Single b-1
0 1 C.Crisp 1- 4 19 2 Single 1-2 b-1
0 12 J.Bay 2- 6 3 Pop Out b-0
1 12 J.Lowrie 6- 4 5 Fly Out b-0
2 12 M.Kotsay 2- 7 6 Walk 2-3 1-2 b-1
2 123 J.Drew 3- 6 6 6 Double 3-H 2-H 1-3 b-2
2 23 D.Pedroia 2- 8 1 Ground Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 7 ***
0 R.Cano 6- 7 3 Strike Out b-0
1 I.Rodriguez 1- 6 4 Strike Out b-0
2 M.Cabrera 2-12 4 HBP b-1
SUBSTITUTE PR- Brett Gardner
M. Cabrera Injured for 0 more games
2 1 J.Damon 2- 2 9 3 Single 1-3 b-1
2 1 3 D.Jeter 3- 7 4 Walk 1-2 b-1
2 123 B.Abreu 2- 9 3 Strike Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 7 ***
SUBSTITUTE CF- Brett Gardner
0 K.Youkilis 2- 3 2 Ground Out b-0
1 M.Lowell 2- 9 4 Walk b-1
1 1 J.Varitek 2- 7 3 Ground Out Double Play 1-o b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 8 ***
0 A.Rodriguez 2- 6 5 Double b-2
0 2 J.Giambi 2-10 8 4 Fly Out 2-3 b-0
1 3 X.Nady 3- 4 15 7 Single 3-H b-1
1 1 R.Cano 2- 2 4 Ground Out Double Play 1-o b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 8 ***
0 C.Crisp 3- 5 20 1 Line Out b-0
1 J.Bay 3- 9 6 Walk b-1
1 1 J.Lowrie 3- 9 1 2 Home Run 1-H b-H
1 M.Kotsay 2- 5 19 4 Double b-2
1 2 J.Drew 3- 8 8 4 Home Run 2-H b-H
1 D.Pedroia 4- 5 15 6 Double b-2
1 2 K.Youkilis 3- 7 5 5 Double 2-H b-2
1 2 M.Lowell 1- 8 3 Fly Out b-0
2 2 J.Varitek 3-10 4 HBP b-1
2 12 C.Crisp 2- 8 19 3 Single 2-H 1-2 b-1
2 12 J.Bay 4- 5 2 3 Home Run 2-H 1-H b-H
2 J.Lowrie 2-10 5 Strike Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 9 ***
0 I.Rodriguez 1- 6 6 Strike Out b-0
1 B.Gardner 1- 3 6 3 Single b-1
1 1 J.Damon 1- 6 5 3 Single 1-2 b-1
1 12 D.Jeter 3- 5 16 5 Single 2-H 1-2 b-1
1 12 B.Abreu 1- 8 4 3 Home Run 2-H 1-H b-H
1 A.Rodriguez 2- 6 1 Double b-2
1 2 J.Giambi 4- 3 6 1 Single 2-3 b-1
1 1 3 X.Nady 3-11 10 1 Single 3-H 1-2 b-1
1 12 R.Cano 2- 8 3 Force Play 2-o 1-2 b-1
2 12 I.Rodriguez 3- 9 19 6 Single 2-H 1-2 b-1
2 12 B.Gardner 4- 3 8 3 Single 2-3 1-2 b-1
2 123 J.Damon 1- 4 19 1 Triple 3-H 2-H 1-H b-3
2 3 D.Jeter 1- 7 3 Strike Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 9 ***
0 M.Kotsay 1- 9 6 Ground Out b-0
1 J.Drew 3-11 17 5 Single b-1
1 1 D.Pedroia 2- 6 1 Ground Out Double Play 1-o b-0
[/code:1:327f4d931d]

[AeroDave10]

Obviously it's a lot more work than any of us would like to do by hand, but I really think you need, at minimum, 10 to 20 times the data you have provided to get a better understand of what's going on.

From a statistical point of view, once you achieved that higher n, it would behoove you to randomly select rolls for each F rating to create a balanced set of data with the same number of rolls (e.g. 100) at each F rating.


One additional thing that needs to be done is to assemble all of the "@" rolls that occurred at various F ratings so that we can get a sense of what's going on with that.

I believe that the only thing that happens differently as a pitcher gets fatigued is that the "@" rolls progressively get worse (100% strikeouts eventually turn into 100% hits). I see no evidence that there are more hitter's card rolls, or there are more rolls on the hitter's "column" or the pitcher's "bad" column.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:8e94795543]I believe that the only thing that happens differently as a pitcher gets fatigued is that the "@" rolls progressively get worse (100% strikeouts eventually turn into 100% hits). I see no evidence that there are more hitter's card rolls, or there are more rolls on the hitter's "column" or the pitcher's "bad" column.[/quote:8e94795543]

Aerodave,

Not to pick on you, but have you looked at the scoresheet I posted?

If I limit myself to the 9th inning of both games, when we are certain that Rivera and Papelbon were ABSOLUTELY drained out:

30 OFFENSIVE ROLLS
6 PITCHING ROLLS

Of the 6 PITCHING ROLLS
ALL 6 in the "4" COLUMN (4*4-3; 1*4-5;1*4-6).

These probabilities look skewed just to the naked eye, but even if you do the stats on this limited sample, you have significant results to reject the hypothesis that the distribution is random, for both results (p=0.003%) and (p=1.2%) respectively.

[MARCPELLETIER]

tonyfmiller,

Thanks for the data.

[quote:ef765d0bab]How can F4 have a lower OBP (.305) than F8 (.315)? [/quote:ef765d0bab]

Don't be surprised by this result. Pitchers who are allowed to go down to F3 are often the best pitchers, whereas some bad pitchers are allowed to go F7-F8 for a few hitters. The same logic probably explains why both obp are lower than the league's obp (which includes all pitchers, good or bad).

But overall, if we combine the F2 to F0 results, around 60% of readings occur on the offensive cards, which roughly corresponds to the sum of 50% offensive readings and 10% of @-readings. Probably not "statistically significant", but well into the tendency we have been observing.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:16f350dd4a]As noted in my first post, in my last league I kept track of the rolls that would appear on a @ reading on my pitcher's card when the pitcher was at a less than F9 strength. During the half a season that the new fatigue rules applied, only 4 rolls occurred (3 when the pitcher was F8 and 1 when the pitcher was F4) and all 4 rolls resulted in outs.[/quote:16f350dd4a]

I think I already posted this, but I have played a few season with the CD-ROM, and @-readings that occur to pitchers with lesser than F9 ratings are ALWAYS outs. Clearly, the positive results are generated by another mean (offensive and/or pitcher's "bad column" readings instead).

And YES, they do occur with pitchers at F4 ratings, which suggests that the turning of @ to positive readings is regressive.

[AeroDave10]

Marcus,

I know that those findings may be statistically significant, but another part of the scientific method is having repeatability of the study. That's why I am asking for a larger sample. I am not yet convinced that this is a pattern.

In a season, why do some players play way over their cards and other way under their cards? Obviously, the ballpark and left/right splits affect things, but sometimes you just get lucky rolls and sometimes you don't.


The plain truth is that it would be much easier if someone from TSN would just come out and give a much better explanation of what is affected by the fatigue ratings. I don't know why they continue to be so secretive about it. It won't take away from the complexity of the game, and it will make people a lot less frustrated and have to do a lot less side studies on their own time. I mean, honestly, who wants to write/type in hundreds and thousands of numbers by hand when the answer is a click or two away?? :x

[The Biomechanical Man]

I was hoping Bernie would chirp in by now with some answers, but obviously he has not. :(

[bernieh]

As I replied to your message, I'll be taking the time to do so this week. It's a complicated subject so I want to think it through and do it right. Thanks for your patience.