Is there really a problem with computer bullpen management?

Postby gkhd11a » Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:53 pm

You get Konstancy to pitch like that by putting him in all 4 managerial slots and slow hook. Since he is an R4 he can pitch a lot of innings and HAL will use him. Using a large relief pitchers is not a good idea right now as Nev and other talented managers will get a ton of innings from one 3.4 million dollar reliever and use most of the rest on hitting. Then he uses Driesward as his lefty specialist and someone else for a few innings. It is the same basic strategy Frank Bailey employs of having one ace reliever and loading the innings for that pitcher with a secondary good reliever and funneling the innings to them.

This should not be workable but the fatigue factor is not strong enough to avoid overuse.

The closer rating immediately follows the number of innings on a card This is the line off of Giusti's card he has a closer rating of "6" which is the highest you can get. HAL will want to keep him in closing situatoins: e17 #1WR pitcher-2 relief(3)/[b:3b7f8a545c]6[/b:3b7f8a545c]


[list:3b7f8a545c]Bennett, D. L S6/R3 1 2 3 27.0 33 11 10 4 3.67 1.59 9L 1.30M
Harris, M. L S7*/R5 1 1 0 30.0 31 14 15 16 4.20 1.53 1L 1.17M
Bagby Jr., J. R S7/R5 2 2 0 53.1 53 30 23 9 5.06 1.43 1R 1.04M
Loes, B. R S6/R4 3 2 0 69.1 67 24 21 32 3.12 1.27 E .90M
Cvengros, M. L S5/R2 5 3 1 56.2 75 35 35 27 5.56 1.94 2L .87M
Rommel, E. R S6/R3 4 7 0 61.1 82 34 23 12 4.99 1.71 1R .70M
Frock, S. R S6/R5 3 2 0 72.2 85 25 12 18 3.10 1.34 2R .63M
Fryman, W. L R3 5 3 8 72.2 63 20 32 42 2.48 1.31 3L 4.85M
Konstanty, J. R R4 7 2 3 72.0 66 24 30 18 3.00 1.33 1R 3.68M
Henke, T. R R2 1 3 3 29.2 28 13 8 29 3.95 1.21 5R 3.53M
Murphy, J. R R2 3 1 4 27.0 20 6 9 19 2.00 1.07 1R 1.67M
[/list:u:3b7f8a545c]

This is Nev's staff in Barnstormers in my division. He is using L/R and has 11 pitchers and funnelling the majority of his pitching to Fryman and Konstancy. Through 63 games his 2 best relievers have 30% of his inning work. Those 2 relievers are better than most starting pitchers and a fraction of the cost. Makes for a very difficult team to beat.

[list:3b7f8a545c]Name T End. W L S IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP BAL Release:
Brown, T. R S8*/R5 7 7 0 114.1 95 29 26 56 2.28 1.06 E 11.08M
Pfiester, J. L S8*/R3 4 7 0 102.0 100 42 41 64 3.71 1.38 E 11.03M
Cicotte, E. R S8*/R5 9 4 0 125.1 113 47 32 51 3.38 1.16 E 10.53M
Knepper, B. L S7*/R3 2 8 0 90.1 101 45 18 49 4.48 1.32 1R 3.87M
Harper, J. R S6 0 0 0 2.0 1 1 1 0 4.50 1.00 4R .57M
Sellers, J. R S6 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 2L .50M
Knowles, D. L S5/R3 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 E .50M
Hernandez, W. L R3 3 3 2 62.1 56 14 21 48 2.02 1.24 2L 5.31M
Humphreys, B. R R3 3 0 3 40.2 36 17 28 29 3.76 1.57 2L 3.03M
Worrell, T. R R2 1 4 10 26.0 28 11 7 23 3.81 1.35 3L
[/list:u:3b7f8a545c]

Therefore I was forced to go to this in the league. Now Pfeister/Knepper are having an awful year and throwing a monkey wrench into my plans. My team is in a recent slump. I have Hernandez set as setup versus both lefty and righty Worrell to close against both and Humphreys as nothing. If Humphreys were Konstancy I would be much better off. Again I do not really believe this is the way the game should be played but I think to be competitive you have to play some version of this.
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Is there really a problem with the relief pitching?-sample

Postby 2cityfan » Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:21 pm

Bernieh,
I am a big fan of the game, and thanks for looking into this issue. Please see the example game below:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/playoffs/boxscore.html?group_id=10123&g_id=979

Not to sound like a sore loser, but HAL killed me in a crucial playoff game. Check out the bottom of the 9th, Hal pulls my ace reliever Keith Foulke who is a righty, but 5L stregnth and is pulled after one batter for Hermanson a righty 6R, to face pinch hitters L Counsel, Furcal S - 1L, and Kennedy L ... I understand the point about over-worked bullpens, and restricitve settings.. but I still have a sour taste from this game.. What's HAL's rationale for these pitching selections?
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Postby geekor » Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:49 pm

2cityfan.... please post that in the thread below this one that is meant for examples....

gkhd11a, are you really complaining about Konstantsy getting 140 innings? A releif pitcher can pitch 2 games in a row with no fatigue. 108 (2/3 of 162) * 4 = 432 innings of non fatigue pitching. Seriously, can you relaly complain of 140? A bigger problem to me is something like PBTR where he has all his innings go to his big 4 * sp/r, and none, absolutely no innings go to anyone in relief, and has it win 90+ games. that shouldn't be happening.
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Tue Feb 28, 2006 12:03 am

2cityfan,

what hal did here is entirely expected, once you understand hal lines.

Hal is designated to replace any pitcher that becomes fatigued when men gets on base, unless he has no other choice (or unless the game is lost by a big margin).

In this case, your settings have Foulke as a closer. Foulke has already pitched in game 2 ANd he game 3. So he is already tired. However, this is a one-run lead that you have, so, despite Foulke being tired, Hal calls him in. However, becomes he is already tired, as soon as he will allow a base runner, Hal's line will hook Foulke for a fresher pitcher. This is exactly what happens. Mueller gets a single, Foulke is a "tired pitcher" with runners on base in a tight game, hence, Hal removes him.

He replaces with Hermanson. AFTER Hermanson kicks in, the offense calls for a pinch-hitter, Counsell. So, according to baseball rules, Hermanson has no other choice than to face him.

After a bunt, Hermanson faces Furcal, a left-handed hitter. You probably have Hermanson with "do not face lh". Hence, Hal listens to you and call J.Walker.

You might argue: well, I have J.Walker set as "don't face rhp", he shouldn't have faced Furcal. Well, it's not as easy. First, I am not sure that Hal understands that he is facing a switch hitter. Many times, I was lead to believe that Hal doesn't understand the concept of switch hitter. Hal sees Furcal (as a lh vs Hermanson), and goes a pitcher vs lh (instead of a pitcher vs switch). This glitch has already been mentioned to Bernie.

I should also mention that Hal was "free" to use any reliever in your situation. This is bottom of the 9th, and I believe you probably have Foulke as closer vs both rh and lh. But Foulke is gone. So Hal doesn't have as such any instructions for this particular situation.

So, Walker faces Furcal. What is the situation: you're still leading 4-3 with tying run on bases, so by definition, this is a closing situation. Walker's rating is thus C0...that is, as soon as he allows one baserunner, he becomes tired. Walker faces Furcal, single, blown-save and hit vs Walker means that Walker has now become a tired pitcher. Remember the rule: a pitcher that gets tired in a tight game is automatically replaced. So Hal goes on the mound again and replaces Walker with another reliever, this time Mesa.

Mesa faces Kennedy (good match-up, by the way). Mesa strikes him out, so there is now 2 outs, with man on first, bottom of the 9th, in a 4-4 game. This situation triggers offensive Hal:'s mind hey I should try to steal 2nd base". This situation triggers defensive Hal's mind: "hey my opponent is going to steal second, so I can't leave Mesa +9 there". (you probably have your relievers as agressive as well, because I doubt Hal would have made any change in conservative settings).

So Mesa gets the hook. Witasek comes in. And you get a caught stealing (instead of an almost insured stolen base). Considering that Abreu hit a single in the top of the 10th, Hal moves probably saved you the game there.

(if you notice, Hal did the very same in game 2, during overtime).

You have Witasek as "1-2 max inning". For unclear reasons, Hal strengthens this rule despite having no relievers left. So he calls for Clemens to respect your instruction.

So overall, your ninth inning, in my opinion has:

1 bad call (Walker facing Furcal)
2 good calls (replacing Mesa with Witasik knowing that a steal of base will be tried out; Hermanson called to face a rhp)
3 calls that followed your instructions (Foulke coming in as a closer, Hermanson hooked vs lh, overall relief being aggressive)
3 calls that respect Strat or MLB rules (Foulke being replaced when tired, Hermanson facing Counsell, Walker being replaced when tired.
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Postby Simon31 » Tue Feb 28, 2006 12:07 am

".....PBTR where he has all his innings go to his big 4 * sp/r, and none, absolutely no innings go to anyone in relief, and has it win 90+ games. that shouldn't be happening."



He did that in a division I was in with him. First time I had ever seen that. NO relief IP whatsoever. The name of his team was the Deadballers or something like that. He did tell everyone how he did it though and I haven't seen him do it since. He doesn't seem to need to as his teams are always tough to beat anyway! :(
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Postby gkhd11a » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:23 am

[quote:5d3b8b874a]gkhd11a, are you really complaining about Konstantsy getting 140 innings? A releif pitcher can pitch 2 games in a row with no fatigue[/quote:5d3b8b874a]

I was not complaining about the 140 innings and actually it is only 63 games so Konstancy and Fryman are on pace for 190 innings each. I was pointing out that to effectively compete against that you must employ the same strategy and showing the value of R3 and R4 pitchers over R2. I actually believe Konstancy is the best value in ATGII relief pitching when you get the number of innings out of him. Now if it is your contention that HAL should allow Konstancy to pitch 400+ fatigue free innings that is not a good thing. Konstancy and Fryman are both on their way to pitching in 120 games and no pitcher could hold up in the real world to that. Konstancy only pitched 78 games and Fryman 60 so the fatigue code is not working as it should if Fryman maintains a 2.48 ERA
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Postby Valen » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:32 am

[quote:d064027425]I've posted this much at various times as well--limit a rudimentary AI's choices and expect terrible results. And I think that's how it should be--I'm more annoyed by a team that hides pitchers. [/quote:d064027425]
One problem I have with carrying a deep pen is getting my tail kicked by someone carrying only 1 legitimate reliever. :(

If you go through my teams you will find most carry 4 to 6 relievers. And you will find a few times when I carried Yerkes as a lefty specialist and he NEVER got used. This was not the result of too small a pen. Too small a pen would have got him used too much. But I have carried him 162 games and got 0 innings from him and with very similar team makeup had him get 70 innings. I cannot see how this could be anything but bad bullpen logic.
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Postby nevdully's » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:32 am

[quote:ef2cb171b3]You get Konstancy to pitch like that by putting him in all 4 managerial slots and slow hook.[/quote:ef2cb171b3]

That's not what I do...[b:ef2cb171b3]I rarely put anyone in any RP slot [/b:ef2cb171b3]let alone all 4...I'll put Eck and Schultz in all 4, or if I'm in a strong lefty park someone like Fryman or Newhouser, but most of the time I spend heavy on my pen and let HAL do his thing. Because more than anything else I have no idea what HAL will do so I wash my hands of hit......I usually feel [b:ef2cb171b3]forced[/b:ef2cb171b3] to go extreme, whether it be 4 stud starters all on slow hook, conservative relief, or the complete opposite, 5 nickel scrubs on quick hook and agrresive relief, with a deep pen, because I'm not able to find any moderation that I can understand from HAL.

I've had top starters [b:ef2cb171b3]pulled in the 5th with a lead,[/b:ef2cb171b3] even pitching a no-hitter, and [b:ef2cb171b3]R. Caldwell bat in the bottom of the 9th with my team several runs behind. WTF! LOL! [/b:ef2cb171b3]

I've stopped reading boxscores, because win or lose, HAL's logic is beyond my comprehension.

BTW....Bernie you've told us the closer thingy is off, but it sure doesn't seem that way over here in ATGland.
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Postby nevdully's » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:37 am

:)
Last edited by nevdully's on Tue Feb 28, 2006 2:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Simon31 » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:43 am

[quote:0c48de3ea6]I've had top starters pulled in the 5th with a lead, even pitching a no-hitter,[/quote:0c48de3ea6]

i have two top pitching teams right now and this frequently happens to me...for no reason can discern. Drives me nuts :!: :!:
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