Am I on pace for the best '06 record yet,with my first team?

[durantjerry]

By the norm, I mean his normal performance level based on all the factors involved. To use an extreme example, if Jeter was hitting .220 in US Cell after half a season, I would expect him to improve. I would not expect him to match his actual stats, but I would expect him to approach what he "should" accomplish given the ballpark, opponents, L-R pitcher %, etc. We do not know what this performance level actually is, but we can have some idea of what it might be based on experience. I don't see why you wouldn't have the expectation that he would reach where he "should be" after 162 games have been played. Of course, he will not always rebound to his expected performance level, but I don't think it is unreasonable to believe he may reach those levels.

[mesquiton]

There seems to be a general misconception in this thread that the "norm" is for players to perform to the level of the stats on their cards. That's simply not correct.

The "norm" in this game is for players to significantly UNDERperform their cards, for the simple reason that they are normally playing against what amount to all-star teams. Of the nearly 900 players who have cards, only about 150 (including hitters and pitchers) are starters in any one league. That means only the BEST 20% (or less) of the player cards see much action in the typical league.

Player cards are based on real life stats. A player "should" perform to his card only if he is competing against the WHOLE player pool, as he did in real life. Why would anybody expect a hitter to match the stats on his card, when he's facing only the top 20% of the pitchers he faced in real life?

In SOMO, if a player performs up to his card, except in unusually weak leagues/divisions (like ahs's :wink: ), then that player is in fact OVERperforming.

[ahsbball05]

Mesquiton - You are probably right to an extent, BUT remember that hitters cards are LOADED -- if the result was takin off of the hitters card every time, they would way overperform their '05 stats. Still getting the result from their card HALF the time is nice, and might overall drop them a little below their '05 performance, but not much if any on average. How many times do you see players hitting more HR per AB in the simulation then they did in real life? It happens frequently, so obviously the "All-Star" pitchers don't kill hitters stats as much as you think. There are so many sub 1 million dollar pitchers that are used, and would normally be hidden in bullpens decently deep that it evens out the few all-star pitchers.

Palmtana - Yes, if their card reads .300 in your park and matches well against the L or R handedness of your opposing pitchers, you should except only .300 the rest of the season, or whatever the card reads like. .275 sounds like a great guess in that situation. You hit the nail on the head with how "correcting stats" works, they don't full CORRECT, but after any point of medium-large underperformance, they still have the same card that SHOULD(and probably will) perform better then they have...if that makes sense. But 95% of the time the batter would NOT finish at .300 (unless facing weaker pitcher, getting real lucky dice rolls, or player in more extreme hitting parks to a large extent), it's simply not reasonable to predict a .350 last 81 games EVER if their card only reads .300.

[quote:463cce60a6]I don't see why you wouldn't have the expectation that he would reach where he "should be" after 162 games have been played. Of course, he will not always rebound to his expected performance level, but I don't think it is unreasonable to believe he may reach those levels.[/quote:463cce60a6]

Jerry - If over a decent sized game sample(say 81) a player is grossly underperforming, of course you can expect an increase in production from that point on(to the tune of the original predicted stats, although spread through 81 games), but in no way can expect that he would reach where he should be after 162 games(if by where he "should be" means reaching the normal stats for the season), although in repeating myself, he should perform the level that he "should be" at for the last 81 games only. It [b:463cce60a6]IS[/b:463cce60a6] unreasonable to expect the season to be a normal statistical season after a bad 81 games. [b:463cce60a6][/b:463cce60a6]

If a player "should" hit 40 homers through 162 games(based on his card, parks, and pitchers faced) and isn't injured more then normal in the 1st 81, but only reaches 10 in the first 81 games, it is basically impossible for him to end up with 40, although he could get somewhat close, but you should then expect 30 for the overall year....I don't think i'm rambling or repeating myself too much-- but it's bedtime :D

[mlayers]

Ahsbball.....first off, congrats on your team doing so well. Yes there is very good chance that your team will finish with 100 wins, but as most vets here know, nothing is certain. Is your team good? Obviously, they are performing well and your record reflects that they are good. Having said that, your team does nothing for me personally. I would never have assembled it that way, especially for your home park. I think either your division is very weak or you are in a league with inexperienced players, or maybe the dice Gods truly are with you. This is no slam on you at all, you have done very well with what you have, but to most of us who have been around here for a long time, boasting openly about your team the way you have is annoying. Try being a little more humble when posting here if you want respectable feedback. Let's see where you finish.

[ahsbball05]

I do not care what my team does for YOU personally. It does alot for me personally, and obviously non-personally. I also don't care that you "think my division is very weak", "the players must be very inexperienced", or you wouldn't have assembled it that way. JKolak himself is in my league and is 62-64 with a NEGATIVE run differential, when mine is +193. So enough about weak competition or a bad league. These players are very good at hitting in the cell, and the platoons combined are amazing as a L/R total, look at the cards. I'm sure it's hurt me to have them in later in the game when a RP comes in with the opposite hand, but obviously not too much! My WORST 36 game streak this year has been 20-16, so it's pretty much guarenteed I will win 101 games at least, (I'm 81-45) I just don't need you saying how you would never make a team that way, like it's a bad thing....

[MICHAELTARBELL]

[quote:46b1fa76cd="Palmtana"][quote:46b1fa76cd="ahsbball05"]You pretty much cannot drop players unless it's because of INJURY, HUGE HUGE underperformance(which you can't claim for every player on your team at 1 time or another :D )[/quote:46b1fa76cd]

This brings up a point I have been wondering about. If a player is underpeforming his card, wouldn't it be best to keep him, rather than drop him, with the expectation that his stats are due for correction. I know that on occassion a player will grossly underperform for a whole season. But if one were to drop such a player after, say, 60 games, I wonder if that decision isn't most often an emotional one rather than a logical one.[/quote:46b1fa76cd]

I would say, generally Palmtana, this is a true statement... :wink:

[MICHAELTARBELL]

Nice record, and good luck the rest of the way! :)

[mlayers]

lol...what are you 12yrs old? I am convinced your team was just lucky, your team make-up itself is mediocre at best. You have a huge ego and thin skin, someday it will catch up to you. Barring a complete meltdown, your team should finish with a very respectable win total, possibly the highest to date. Try some humility bud, it will go a long way...I promise.

[durantjerry]

Nothing wrong with someone being excited and sharing a big accomplishment, especially someone relatively new having the season he is having. It IS quite an accomplishment for someone who hasn't played much regardless of the circumstances. Very few can say they matched it at that point in their SOMO playing career and I'm sure anyone would be quite pleased if they were in the same situation. I have a pretty good overall record and I know I have nothing close to it.