Great rotation but
by Assmeriten » Wed Jan 04, 2006 4:37 am
needed a pinch runner so just signed Guzman so money left is now 630,000.
- Assmeriten
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Jan 04, 2006 5:18 am
My biggest concern, by far, is the lack of on-base in your team. You seem to have priviledged power over on-base, but Shea is only 1-12 hr for lefties. It's not a homerun haven.
Contrary to what you said, I think Ford is great for your team precisely because he brings on-base to your team. But Keenedy and Lowell don't have the on-base to stand #2 and #3 in a line-up. Their only place is down the line-up. At the limit, Wilkerson could be a#2. Same on-base than Kennedy and has less gbA.
(I suspect that you have Kennedy in the 2nd slot because of his bunting. If so, I strongly believe it's a bad strategy. Bunting in the first inning is a bad strategy even when your SPs are RJ and Santana. Bunting should be left for late-inning startegies, when it becomes clear that only one run will suffice to win the ball game. For this reason, Kennedy should be drop down the line-up and let his bunting ability be employed later in the game).
I think you should simply dump Griffey for the best lefty on-base player outhere and have him #2 or #3. I'm not a Griffey fan at all. I think that 4M is a lot of money on a player who will be sitting either on the bench or on the DL for about 70 games. Again, your need is on-base, not power. For the same reason, I'm not too hot about Pena, but at least, contrary to Griffey, he has a good card. But given that you have Giambi, I would strongly recommand that you pick up someone like Palmeiro instead (a 5R that has more on-base).
My other point of concern is that you have at least 4-5 millions wasted on your bench, in addition to the other million in bank. In my opinion, your team has no use for Santos, Reese, Mietkiewicz and F.Guzman (you should never spend an extra 500K on a pinch-runner. A pinch-runner should always be found among the players you need to play a season. With exception, the same is true for defensive replacement. My point here is that it makes sometimes sense to have 16 players, when you except of lot of playing time for your players due to injuries and pinch-hitting. But in your case, with a team with no extended injury threats and playing with dh, there is no need to go beyond 13 players, 14 max, and hence the players fit for pinch runners and defensive replacements must be found in that group).
To come back to your money surplus: given that you have Wilkerson--who can all three fields--and Ford--who can play lf or rf---you have the option to pick any outfielder, be it lf, cf, or rf. So I am certain that you can find a potent star in place of Chavez. Given that you have Kearns as a back-up, who has an excellent card for the price, you can go with an injury-prone player.
Finally, you seem highly concerned about Wills, but you shouldn't. First, injuries to pitchers seldom occurs. Second, you already have Ortiz available to start. Third, to protect yourself in case Wills does get injured, the only thing you need is a bit of money in bank once the season starts. If Wills get injured, and Ortiz is not available to start, then you'll only need to drop one of your cheap relief for a cheap SP.
And if you have any money left, don't spend it on useless players on the bench. Consider improving your bullpen.
For your bullpen, there are better cards than Myers's. I understand that he'S a 9L, but his card is very weak even vs lhp.
So my recommendations, in brief:
drop Griffey for best lefty dh with on-base
drop Chavez, Reese, Mietkiewicz+Garcia+ Santos for of starter.
consider dropping Pena for a lefty bat that will fit better for a platoon with Giambi.
improve the bullpen with the leftovers.
Contrary to what you said, I think Ford is great for your team precisely because he brings on-base to your team. But Keenedy and Lowell don't have the on-base to stand #2 and #3 in a line-up. Their only place is down the line-up. At the limit, Wilkerson could be a#2. Same on-base than Kennedy and has less gbA.
(I suspect that you have Kennedy in the 2nd slot because of his bunting. If so, I strongly believe it's a bad strategy. Bunting in the first inning is a bad strategy even when your SPs are RJ and Santana. Bunting should be left for late-inning startegies, when it becomes clear that only one run will suffice to win the ball game. For this reason, Kennedy should be drop down the line-up and let his bunting ability be employed later in the game).
I think you should simply dump Griffey for the best lefty on-base player outhere and have him #2 or #3. I'm not a Griffey fan at all. I think that 4M is a lot of money on a player who will be sitting either on the bench or on the DL for about 70 games. Again, your need is on-base, not power. For the same reason, I'm not too hot about Pena, but at least, contrary to Griffey, he has a good card. But given that you have Giambi, I would strongly recommand that you pick up someone like Palmeiro instead (a 5R that has more on-base).
My other point of concern is that you have at least 4-5 millions wasted on your bench, in addition to the other million in bank. In my opinion, your team has no use for Santos, Reese, Mietkiewicz and F.Guzman (you should never spend an extra 500K on a pinch-runner. A pinch-runner should always be found among the players you need to play a season. With exception, the same is true for defensive replacement. My point here is that it makes sometimes sense to have 16 players, when you except of lot of playing time for your players due to injuries and pinch-hitting. But in your case, with a team with no extended injury threats and playing with dh, there is no need to go beyond 13 players, 14 max, and hence the players fit for pinch runners and defensive replacements must be found in that group).
To come back to your money surplus: given that you have Wilkerson--who can all three fields--and Ford--who can play lf or rf---you have the option to pick any outfielder, be it lf, cf, or rf. So I am certain that you can find a potent star in place of Chavez. Given that you have Kearns as a back-up, who has an excellent card for the price, you can go with an injury-prone player.
Finally, you seem highly concerned about Wills, but you shouldn't. First, injuries to pitchers seldom occurs. Second, you already have Ortiz available to start. Third, to protect yourself in case Wills does get injured, the only thing you need is a bit of money in bank once the season starts. If Wills get injured, and Ortiz is not available to start, then you'll only need to drop one of your cheap relief for a cheap SP.
And if you have any money left, don't spend it on useless players on the bench. Consider improving your bullpen.
For your bullpen, there are better cards than Myers's. I understand that he'S a 9L, but his card is very weak even vs lhp.
So my recommendations, in brief:
drop Griffey for best lefty dh with on-base
drop Chavez, Reese, Mietkiewicz+Garcia+ Santos for of starter.
consider dropping Pena for a lefty bat that will fit better for a platoon with Giambi.
improve the bullpen with the leftovers.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:47 am
I forgot: Clayton is way too weak to be #3 vs lhp in Shea. Consider Wilkerson for this role: his card vs lhp is pretty good, with lots of doubles, some singles, plenty of onbase.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by Assmeriten » Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:49 am
If I crunched the numbers right Clayton has 41.6 on base points to Wilkersons 39.8. Griffey has 40.6 on base vs righties. Kennedy is in the 2 hole not only for bunting but that he chokes in the clutch.As of course does Chavez which is why he hits 9th . Trying to decide if I should keep Kolb or dump him and pick up Carrara to go with a backwards righty instead. I do keep checking for a different starting outfielders but there is nothing that makes sense for what I could afford after seeing what the money is like if I drop Chavez. For number 3 hitter I am looking for hit points more than on base. Clayton and Lowell both have more than Wilkerson, again if I crunched the numbers right plus vs righties Wilkerson has no ballpark single chances. Ford who was autodrafted has lots of on base so I don't mind that I got stuck with him. Kearns was also autodrafted and is a decent backup for the price. Young actually has more on base vs righties than I thought (37.65). As for needing backup bench players A.J., Pena, Giambi, Kennedy, Young, Griffey, and Chavez can all go down for 15 games. Just looking over who would be there if I dump Griffey shows again not much. I see Rusell is still there if I want to shift from Pena to him which would save some money but make the starting defense worse. All the strong pitching in the world is useless if the team behind them can't field.
- Assmeriten
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Jan 04, 2006 2:38 pm
Assmeriten,
Obviously this is your team. I am just throwing out ideas. So to counter your points:
Clayton is a weak hitter (so all homeruns on the pitching card will be transformed into single**). Considering that he's gonna have 200 AB vs lhp, his card says that he willl probably hit 1 homerun at the 3rd slot. You can expect between 10 and 15 from Wilkerson. Moreover Wilkerson has more doubles on his card. In all, we talk about 30 rbis difference between Wilkerson and Clayton just there, only considering vs lhp. Surely Clayton will get a few back with his singles, but not that many. And Wilkerson has more on-base after you correct for the stadium (singles and hr are inflated for left-handed hitters).
Griffey: I just think his card sucks for the price+injury risk. True, he has 40 chances of on-base vs rhp, but that's barely acceptable. If you give me 5M, I rather spend it on 150 games from Durazo, or on 130 games of Delgado than on 90 starts from Griffey and 70 starts from Young. Sure, Young has some on-base vs rhp, but he lacks total power. I would consider Hollandsworth or Nixon or Palmeiro before Griffey, both with more on-base for less dollars. In fact, I would prefer to spend on Huff or Newman as everyday lefty hitters--and spend the leftovers on pitching--rather than spend on Griffey/Young platoon. They have similar on-base, less power, but they crunch vs lhp, and they won't get hurt. But I agree that Branyan is not a good option.
As for back-ups, Pena, Kennedy and Chavez, you don't need all 3 back-ups in your team!!! It's not as if they'll all get injured at the same moment!! Of course, the ideal set-up is to have an all around player which can play at multiple positions. But if you don't have this player, then, if a 15 game injury occurs (which, statistically should happen to only one of the three above) you can make transactions: drop a cheap player for another cheap player. It's better to lose 20% out of 0.5M (0.1M lost) than to have 3 X 0.5M of worthless players (1.5M lost).
As a rule of thumb, I always assume that 1M not being spend or sleeping on the bench costs about 1.5 wins. 5M sleeping costs about 7.5 wins. In your case, your money will not be entirely sleeping--Garcia will sometimes pinch-run, Reese will add some value late in games--but these little benefits will not generate the 7 games you will lose by having a less effective starting squad.
As for not finding better than Chavez, it's hard to believe. As I said, with Wilkerson and Ford, you can have any outfielder available. Even though you play in Shea, a 5M right-handed of, say Rivera or Lane, is still better than Chavez+ 3M sleeping on the bench. Of course, reverse lefties like Burnitz or Patterson would be ideal.
Obviously this is your team. I am just throwing out ideas. So to counter your points:
Clayton is a weak hitter (so all homeruns on the pitching card will be transformed into single**). Considering that he's gonna have 200 AB vs lhp, his card says that he willl probably hit 1 homerun at the 3rd slot. You can expect between 10 and 15 from Wilkerson. Moreover Wilkerson has more doubles on his card. In all, we talk about 30 rbis difference between Wilkerson and Clayton just there, only considering vs lhp. Surely Clayton will get a few back with his singles, but not that many. And Wilkerson has more on-base after you correct for the stadium (singles and hr are inflated for left-handed hitters).
Griffey: I just think his card sucks for the price+injury risk. True, he has 40 chances of on-base vs rhp, but that's barely acceptable. If you give me 5M, I rather spend it on 150 games from Durazo, or on 130 games of Delgado than on 90 starts from Griffey and 70 starts from Young. Sure, Young has some on-base vs rhp, but he lacks total power. I would consider Hollandsworth or Nixon or Palmeiro before Griffey, both with more on-base for less dollars. In fact, I would prefer to spend on Huff or Newman as everyday lefty hitters--and spend the leftovers on pitching--rather than spend on Griffey/Young platoon. They have similar on-base, less power, but they crunch vs lhp, and they won't get hurt. But I agree that Branyan is not a good option.
As for back-ups, Pena, Kennedy and Chavez, you don't need all 3 back-ups in your team!!! It's not as if they'll all get injured at the same moment!! Of course, the ideal set-up is to have an all around player which can play at multiple positions. But if you don't have this player, then, if a 15 game injury occurs (which, statistically should happen to only one of the three above) you can make transactions: drop a cheap player for another cheap player. It's better to lose 20% out of 0.5M (0.1M lost) than to have 3 X 0.5M of worthless players (1.5M lost).
As a rule of thumb, I always assume that 1M not being spend or sleeping on the bench costs about 1.5 wins. 5M sleeping costs about 7.5 wins. In your case, your money will not be entirely sleeping--Garcia will sometimes pinch-run, Reese will add some value late in games--but these little benefits will not generate the 7 games you will lose by having a less effective starting squad.
As for not finding better than Chavez, it's hard to believe. As I said, with Wilkerson and Ford, you can have any outfielder available. Even though you play in Shea, a 5M right-handed of, say Rivera or Lane, is still better than Chavez+ 3M sleeping on the bench. Of course, reverse lefties like Burnitz or Patterson would be ideal.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by Assmeriten » Wed Jan 04, 2006 6:24 pm
Paterson was AD for me but being a CUBS fan I always hated him so he was launched to pick up Pena in waivers. And yes, I am still trying to put a lineup in place. In the past I have actually prefered batting an all around player 3rd. One who can hit for average, with some pop, get on base, steal and run but have been getting burned with that lately when the number 3 hitter walks and the number 4 hitters nails a choke point. Kind of like the frustation the White Sox would go through with Frank Thomas taking a walk instead of going for the rbi.
Am I better off picking up the reverse righty for my closer? The logic being with 3 lefties in the rotation I will be facing mostly righty and switch hitters so lefties will be coming off the bench to pinch hit.
Am I better off picking up the reverse righty for my closer? The logic being with 3 lefties in the rotation I will be facing mostly righty and switch hitters so lefties will be coming off the bench to pinch hit.
- Assmeriten
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by Assmeriten » Wed Jan 04, 2006 6:34 pm
Just droped Myers so if I drop Chavez I have Your total funds will be: 2,660,000.. Still not much out there for cf or rf. Not looking at LF because with Fords +1 throwing arm he is better suited for LF. Not much out there unless I want to add Hildago who has less on base than Chavez but inproves the defense with his (-4) arm. I see vs lefties Wilkerson has slighty more than 20 hit points but then loses 9 in clutch. Never did determine which spot(s) in the batting order comes up more in the clutch. Thought I read on another thread that the number 5 spots seems to come up the most.
- Assmeriten
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Jan 04, 2006 6:37 pm
in your case, with eventually lot of low-scoring games, i think it's important that you have a closer with a good c rating. So while I agree with your logic, if your choice is between Carrera and Kolb, I'd prefer Kolb.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Jan 04, 2006 6:38 pm
yeah, clutch is important for #5, #4, #6, with #1 (in dh leagues) and #2 being the least important.
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