The Secret Formula 2008

[J-Pav]

[b:b149f4c227]A-Ray[/b:b149f4c227]:

Good luck w/ your team, it looks pretty solid.

[b:b149f4c227]Jake[/b:b149f4c227]:

I forgot to mention too that I think it's pretty difficult to isolate "bullpen" from the rest of the team in any meaningful way.

Consider these variables:

1. Ballparks across different leagues. If you're in a division of all pitcher's parks or all hitter's parks or all neutral parks you're gonna have a lot of variation among the number of one run games.

2. Starting pitching greatly affects your bullpen situation. How will you hold it constant?

3. Team defense affects 1 and 2. How will you hold it constant?

4. Most importantly, I assume you're trying to create some sort of "[i:b149f4c227]edge[/i:b149f4c227]" by being better in one run game situations. This assumes you will always be in a position for the one run games to be meaningful in making the playoffs. That's a pretty big assumption. That is, you could be 30-15 in one run games, but still have a record of 70-92 overall.

In other words, if you use a bullpen of four $6.00 relievers, you would be a cinch to win more close games, but you would also likely [i:b149f4c227]lose[/i:b149f4c227] more games overall because of the inequity of $24 mil spent on RPs.

5. Even if you found something which is statistically significant, it would require a bunch of constants (certain ballpark, certain opposing ballparks, certain SP, certain offense and defense, etc.) to the point that when you enter a league, unless you had a perfect storm of required, predetermined variables, you would never be able to employ the "one run game bullpen."

I think you are confusing "effective bullpen" with "effective one run game bullpen."

All you really need is "effective bullpen", no?

[Jake Squid]

Is # 1 true? Does the ballpark effect the number of one run games? I wouldn't have thought so, but you've got a lot more experience than I do.

I'm not trying to create an edge in winning one run games. As your final sentence says, I'm trying to create an effective bullpen. If one run games are not purely chance, an effective bullpen should perform better in those games. If one run games are purely chance, an effective bullpen is still something desirable.

[J-Pav]

[quote:7c0e1d6c0e="Jake Squid"]Is # 1 true? Does the ballpark effect the number of one run games?[/quote:7c0e1d6c0e]

It appears to from the samples I looked at. Just defining parks as either pitchers parks or hitters parks (which may not be significant enough), pitchers parks averaged around 50 one run games, hitters parks around 43. However, the extremes stood out a little more, w/ one topping out at 62 one run games (pitchers park) versus a low of 33 (hitters park).

From the best records teams, I've suggested a bullpen that looks something like $4, $3, $2, $1, $0.50 (give or take). Are you finding your successful teams (say 90+ wins) fitting this mold, or are you seeing something dramatically different?

[the splinter]

Aray...I like to return the favor and F with Hal in these situations. For 1 or 2 series I will totally jumble my line up and re-set my settings to normal across the board. I like to think that this causes Hal to rethink my team and improve my performance. Does it work? Who knows...but it makes me feel better.

[J-Pav]

[b:1bf88a977f]Aray[/b:1bf88a977f]:

If you're asking me personally (as opposed to answering generically), I always ride it out because I [i:1bf88a977f]know[/i:1bf88a977f] my team is sound. If I could've had a statistically better player in any position, I would have made the move before the season started. So it makes no sense to me to make a move after the season starts (and absorb a salary penalty to boot).

I'm LOL w/ [b:1bf88a977f]Splinter[/b:1bf88a977f], that might be the best advice yet!

I also jumble my lineups out of a desire to spin the wheels. It's useless, but it feels good, and a lot of times it does SEEM to break a bad streak. Unfortunately, there just aren't too many other things you can do.

[Jeepdriver]

Aray said,

[quote:2b989a0fd3]It's early in the season, and your team is underperforming pretty badly, but you don't want to make changes in personnel. What are some of your other options outside of drops and trades?[/quote:2b989a0fd3]

Here's something I do that hasn't been mentioned. I will change the order of my Starting Pitchers. For example, you could move everyone up one spot in the rotation. The ace moves to the #2 spot, your 2nd SP to the 3 spot and so on. If you have a 4-man rotation you can do this by giving your cheapie SP a start. In fact, I did this yesterday (with success) as I put in Billy Traber to start a game. Simply check all the avoids and limits and get him out early. You might even win that game, plus your rotation has switched places and therefore may possibly shake your whole squad out of a funk. I've done this successfully on many occasions. And no transactions needed.

[AeroDave10]

[quote:773a9af9a4="Jeepdriver"]Aray said,



Here's something I do that hasn't been mentioned. I will change the order of my Starting Pitchers.[/quote:773a9af9a4]

I tried this in an ATG league, and it seems to be working. When your ace is always matching up against the other teams' aces, you'll probably go .500, which sucks for the $$ you have to pay that top dog.

[Jake Squid]

[b:cdedf33e50]J-Pav wrote:[/b:cdedf33e50]
[quote:cdedf33e50]From the best records teams, I've suggested a bullpen that looks something like $4, $3, $2, $1, $0.50 (give or take). Are you finding your successful teams (say 90+ wins) fitting this mold, or are you seeing something dramatically different? [/quote:cdedf33e50]

I've had a variety of bullpen builds that have been successful for me. None of them in the 4,3,2,1,.5 mold.

98 win team:
7, 3, 1.25, .6, .6
I tried the stud closer plus a useful all purpose plus a bunch of specialists.

92 win team:
3.1, 3.1, 1.26, .6, .6, .5
Here I tried the value closer, useful all purpose & 4 specialists.

looking like about a 90 (but it still has time to collapse) win team 120 games in:
3.4, 2.8, 2.7, 1.6, 1.2
This one is 2 specialists one mop up guy and 2 useful relievers. The 2.8 guy is getting about 45% of the relief innings and has been more effective than the 3.4 guy for a variety of reasons.

Like I said, small sample size. I only have 3 completed seasons and I had no idea what I was doing on the first team. For the 98 win team I wanted the best closer because my first team's closers performed terribly. For the 92 win team, I wanted to try to find value in my closer & set up & spend more on my position players.

I tried to do the same for the in process team, although that was more of a crapshoot since I'm not that familiar w/ the 2007 card set.

[visick]

Like splinter...

I occasionally use the lineup randomizer to break a bad streak.

Shake things up a bit.

I also threaten a player or 2 that is slumping. I tell myself and that player, he's going to the FA pile if he doesn't wake up.


visick