The secret to success
by Mean Dean » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:09 am
[quote:eb680e1be1]Before the dice are rolled in Strat, assuming it's not the leadoff batter, the roller does "know" what the previous roll was and what that column (door) was.[/quote:eb680e1be1]This sentence indicates that you don't understand how the word "know" is being used in this context.
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by coyote303 » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:26 am
[quote:0395bb13f2="rmilter"]That scene in the movie ,"21" really made me scratch my head,..it is so damn misleading that it almost is maddening. As I a stated before; it has as much to do with," GAME SHOW THEATRICS" as it does mathematical odds. And kevin Spacey's character refuses to explain that to the students(and the audience), therefore it has been taken way out of context.[/quote:0395bb13f2]
The law of restricted choice (as us bridge players like to call it; the movie uses different terminology) is actually quite valid, and I will try to give a simple explanation. I hesitate doing so because it simply has no relevance to a dice roll or rolls since each roll is independent of another.
Okay here goes...
If you pick window 1 and stay with it no matter what, you have 1/3 chance of being right.
Let's say you pick a window with every intention of switching after Monty reveals the one bad choice. Two things can happen:
You initially picked the right window (1/3 chance) and thus you will be wrong when you switch.
You initially picked the wrong window (2/3 chance) and you have 100 percent chance of picking the right window when you switch because there are two windows left and Monty kindly showed you which one not to pick.
So, by switching windows you have 2/3 chance of that new car instead of 1/3.
The law of restricted choice (as us bridge players like to call it; the movie uses different terminology) is actually quite valid, and I will try to give a simple explanation. I hesitate doing so because it simply has no relevance to a dice roll or rolls since each roll is independent of another.
Okay here goes...
If you pick window 1 and stay with it no matter what, you have 1/3 chance of being right.
Let's say you pick a window with every intention of switching after Monty reveals the one bad choice. Two things can happen:
You initially picked the right window (1/3 chance) and thus you will be wrong when you switch.
You initially picked the wrong window (2/3 chance) and you have 100 percent chance of picking the right window when you switch because there are two windows left and Monty kindly showed you which one not to pick.
So, by switching windows you have 2/3 chance of that new car instead of 1/3.
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by coyote303 » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:01 am
[quote:787e57e195="ugrant"]So sure are you, Coyote. Sleep tight again. I will.[/quote:787e57e195]
Yes, I am sure, Yoda. I'm as sure of this as I am that my Colorado Rockies will not win the Super Bowl this year. What's that? They are not in the NFL? Exactly!
This is not as if we are discussing a political issue where it boils down to opinion. I will say I have learned from this discussion. I've looked at every one of your arguments (admittedly shaking my head in disbelief at some of them). I have deepened my own understanding of restricted choice while working on my responses.
However, I also realize that at this point I'm as likely to change your mind as I'm as likely to change your mind about, say, abortion (whatever your position may be on that). It's simply part of your belief system at this point.
And that's okay. (Sorry, I know this is condescending to say...) While it would have been very cool to help you understand that one die roll does not affect another, hopefully others who have followed this thread will have a better understanding.
Coyote
[i:787e57e195]"There are exactly 10 types of people. Those who understand binary and those who don't."[/i:787e57e195]
Yes, I am sure, Yoda. I'm as sure of this as I am that my Colorado Rockies will not win the Super Bowl this year. What's that? They are not in the NFL? Exactly!
This is not as if we are discussing a political issue where it boils down to opinion. I will say I have learned from this discussion. I've looked at every one of your arguments (admittedly shaking my head in disbelief at some of them). I have deepened my own understanding of restricted choice while working on my responses.
However, I also realize that at this point I'm as likely to change your mind as I'm as likely to change your mind about, say, abortion (whatever your position may be on that). It's simply part of your belief system at this point.
And that's okay. (Sorry, I know this is condescending to say...) While it would have been very cool to help you understand that one die roll does not affect another, hopefully others who have followed this thread will have a better understanding.
Coyote
[i:787e57e195]"There are exactly 10 types of people. Those who understand binary and those who don't."[/i:787e57e195]
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by RICHARDMILTER » Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:20 pm
Coyote said:[quote:5ee83a0cf0]
Let's say you pick a window with every intention of switching after Monty reveals the one bad choice. Two things can happen: [/quote:5ee83a0cf0]
There is one problem;..in the movie "21", Kevin Spacey's character NEVER, EVER mentions that the first door chosen is wrong. That is what ruins that whole scene and makes it so freakin' misleading. Also, as you mentioned; it has nothing to do with dice rolling odds.
By the way, I do understand that when Monte Hall (knows) and let's the contestant switch the odds change dramatically. But they just do not do a good job of explaining it in the movie. Therefore, as we all have seen, it is getting taken way out of context, and not being applied appropriately by those trying to make the Strat- "21" comparison. That is all I was saying. I was not disagreeing with you,.. Coyote. In fact you do a much better job than the movie explaining it. That was my initial point when I responded to that movie being mentioned.
Let's say you pick a window with every intention of switching after Monty reveals the one bad choice. Two things can happen: [/quote:5ee83a0cf0]
There is one problem;..in the movie "21", Kevin Spacey's character NEVER, EVER mentions that the first door chosen is wrong. That is what ruins that whole scene and makes it so freakin' misleading. Also, as you mentioned; it has nothing to do with dice rolling odds.
By the way, I do understand that when Monte Hall (knows) and let's the contestant switch the odds change dramatically. But they just do not do a good job of explaining it in the movie. Therefore, as we all have seen, it is getting taken way out of context, and not being applied appropriately by those trying to make the Strat- "21" comparison. That is all I was saying. I was not disagreeing with you,.. Coyote. In fact you do a much better job than the movie explaining it. That was my initial point when I responded to that movie being mentioned.
Last edited by RICHARDMILTER on Mon Sep 07, 2009 1:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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by voovits » Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:34 pm
[quote:be7b049f27="coyote303"]
However, I also realize that at this point I'm as likely to change your mind as I'm as likely to change your mind about, say, abortion (whatever your position may be on that). It's simply part of your belief system at this point.
[/quote:be7b049f27]
That's exactly why I stopped trying to state my case. There comes a time when you shake your head in disbelief one too many times.
However, I also realize that at this point I'm as likely to change your mind as I'm as likely to change your mind about, say, abortion (whatever your position may be on that). It's simply part of your belief system at this point.
[/quote:be7b049f27]
That's exactly why I stopped trying to state my case. There comes a time when you shake your head in disbelief one too many times.
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by RICHARDMILTER » Tue Sep 08, 2009 1:51 pm
I am sure there are some of us out there that have superstitious beliefs that we know are silly but we do them anyway. And I do not really see a problem with having some superstitious ticks, as long as we know they are not based in math,..or fact. For instance I like to always check my scores before bed(not in the morning), and some times I will even put on my lucky shirt, or pick up my lucky arrow head rock before checking my teams' scores. I just would never argue (publicly) that this helps me.
Maybe, Ugrant bumped this topic because he is still hoping others will read it and agree with him. Frankly, I liked Coyote's take that sometimes it can take five years (or longer) to convince someone of an irrefutable argument.
Ugrant, hang in there buddy, you are not only in your beliefs, despite the fact that they are wrong. I really do not see it hurting your Strat skills that much. And I will go ahead and wish you the very best of luck, especially since that is more likely to be on your side than the math.
Maybe, Ugrant bumped this topic because he is still hoping others will read it and agree with him. Frankly, I liked Coyote's take that sometimes it can take five years (or longer) to convince someone of an irrefutable argument.
Ugrant, hang in there buddy, you are not only in your beliefs, despite the fact that they are wrong. I really do not see it hurting your Strat skills that much. And I will go ahead and wish you the very best of luck, especially since that is more likely to be on your side than the math.
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by ugrant » Tue Sep 08, 2009 2:23 pm
I thought you guys were through commenting on this. I just thought there might be some folks who were gone for the Labor Day weekend that might like to take some shots at me, considering that's what most are doing rather than refuting anything I write with something of substance.
You guys have your panties in a knot over the 3.3% chance I am arguing about (the difference between 16.7 and 20.0).
What's more, in my earlier post about "bets" (probably a poor choice of an example, but it does make a point), my first bet is exactly in line with everything Coyote, Voovits, et al, are arguing - that there is a 1/6 chance of each column occurring. No more, no less, nothing influenced by a prior roll.
My second bet is where everyone gets upset - is there any value to "covering" the probability that a previous column does not duplicate? Why didn't anyone focus on that and show me why I'm wrong? Heck, it's only an additional .033 chance if there is value to it.
I do have a question for Coyote, assuming he isn't done commenting. He wrote earlier:
"With dice, each and every door might have a car behind it (1/27 chance) or none of the doors at all (8/27 chance), and so they are independent of one another."
Could you tell me what the 1/27 and 8/27 refer to?
You guys have your panties in a knot over the 3.3% chance I am arguing about (the difference between 16.7 and 20.0).
What's more, in my earlier post about "bets" (probably a poor choice of an example, but it does make a point), my first bet is exactly in line with everything Coyote, Voovits, et al, are arguing - that there is a 1/6 chance of each column occurring. No more, no less, nothing influenced by a prior roll.
My second bet is where everyone gets upset - is there any value to "covering" the probability that a previous column does not duplicate? Why didn't anyone focus on that and show me why I'm wrong? Heck, it's only an additional .033 chance if there is value to it.
I do have a question for Coyote, assuming he isn't done commenting. He wrote earlier:
"With dice, each and every door might have a car behind it (1/27 chance) or none of the doors at all (8/27 chance), and so they are independent of one another."
Could you tell me what the 1/27 and 8/27 refer to?
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