Secret Formula 2006

[MARCPELLETIER]

Yeah, well, it can easily get complicated to sort out all the possible influences. I had a ss3e25 and a cf3e8 , while you had ss1e10 and a cf 1e3, so that certainly explains some of the gap. I also allowed a very high number of hrs (199) compared to your team (138), which I thought was bigger than expected, even though my pitchers had some homeruns on their cards. On the other hand, I played in an easier division, so it certainly helped my team to some extend, but I am not sure how it helped it.

And let's not forget that Geekor, in that league, had perhaps the best team and finished the season with a 95-67 record despite spending only 24M in a Kauffman team!!!

But bottom-line, I think we understand where our disagreement stems from. So the fun thing is to have other owners try their own strategy and see how it deploys.

[b:49ae24d12a]Addendum[/b:49ae24d12a]
When I said
[quote:49ae24d12a]and in USCellualar, any number away from 26M puts you at risk[/quote:49ae24d12a]

I took 26M arbitrarily: I should have said in the 20M-26M, meaning that spending too little on your pitching puts you at risk to not have enough pitching to succeed, but spending more than that will not make your team as efficient as it should be for a team playing in an offense-oriented stadium.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Sorry to come back on the subject, but I have new data that seem to further support my own claim.

For the need of the Tour league, I screened almost all of the past 2006 leagues in search for the best teams. I copied and pasted the data from all the best teams that existed in 2006. At the beginning of my search, I was looking for any team that had a season of 95 pythogarian wins, but once I realized that my criteria was too lenient, I restricted myself to teams that either had a 98-64 or better pythogarian season or had won over 100 real wins.

I will create a new thread in a near future to discuss about some very interesting data I found out. But here, I will limit myself to the point discussed by J-Pav. Just to mention it, my first motive for doing my search was to give me some ideas for the Finals, but considering the discussion I had here with J-Pav, it was easy for me to look at the salary structure of those teams and analyze it.

I have the data of 123 teams. Of those 123 teams, only a few won in the 85-90 wins, and the vast majority of the teams won over 95 wins, a few of them even over 100 wins. All had seasons with at least 95 pythogarian wins, most of them with at least 98 pythogarian wins. These teams had exceptional seasons (I should add that two other teams, not including in my data, also had 98+ pythogarian wins, but were excluded because they were in divisions with exceptionally bad teams, teams that had won 33 and 41 wins respectively).

I averaged the money spent on the pitching. On average, these exceptional teams spent exactly the number J-Pav found out: 31.89M.

However, when you regroup the teams based on their stadiums, another picture came out.

10 teams used USCellular Field. On average those 10 teams spent 26.6M on their pitching. One team spent 40M, all nine other teams spent 30M or less on their pitching. If we exclude that 40M team, USCellular teams spent on average 25.1M.

If I regroup all teams playing in offense-oriented stadiums (by that, I mean USCell, AmQuest, Minute Maid, BOB, Citizen, and Coors), I have 31 teams. On average, these 31 teams spent 28M on their pitching.

I had an opposite view when I looked at Petco teams. 19 teams had dominating seasons in Petco. On average, these teams spent 35M on their pitching. One team spent 27M on their pitching, another 29M, and all other 17 teams spent between 30M and 41M. Interestingly, five of those teams spent more on their pitching than on their offense/defense, and were highly succesful in doing it.

I had similar results when I took together teams in Jacobs, Kauffman and Petco.


Here are the ids for the Petco teams:

10668 10744 11130 1147 1156 1432 1654 2702 281 4253 4425 569 6009 6125 8049 857 8814 9063 9242

Here are the ids for the USCell teams:
2257 2601 3141 5005 6514 6676 6843 687 7669 341

[MARCPELLETIER]

To look at the teams, you can go to

strato.berce.us

move the mouse to 2006 season, view teams, and enter the numbers above in the id box, and click on team.

[J-Pav]

[b:85bbf7d8a2]Marcus[/b:85bbf7d8a2]:

Thanks for the additional post! I'll be looking forward to your new thread...

* * * * * *

Here's a link to the league standings of [i:85bbf7d8a2]The Secret Formula 2006 [/i:85bbf7d8a2]: [URL=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/league/standings.html?group_id=5722]The Theory in Action [/URL].

I put it out there, so I deserve whatever's coming. Anyone can feel free to add their two cents, pro, con or otherwise.

Here are some of my thoughts leading up to tonight...

A lot of the numbers I've posted about deal with league averages. I decided to enter with Yankee Stadium (1-10, 1-10) to give myself the widest margin of error, in case I ended up playing in a heavily tilted league average. As luck would have it, the league average came out lefty 1-9, righty 1-8 for homeruns. A little on the pitcher friendly side of neutral, much like I've been seeing all year.

Here's my autodraft card in order, with replacements in green:

1. Martinez SP (*)
2. Ensberg 3B
3. Peavy SP (*) - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Benoit SP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
4. Jeter SS - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Tejeda SS[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
5. Patterson SP (*)
6. Jones CF - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Edmonds CF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
7. Oswalt SP (*)
8. Jenkins RF
9. Kennedy 2B
10. Anderson LF
11. Tracy 1B - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Kotchman 1B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
12. Dingman RP
13. Sanchez RP
14. Mercker RP
15. Pierre CF
16. Cora 2B
17. Madson RP
18. Flores RP - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Perralta RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
19. Perez, A. 3B
20. Schneider C - [color=green:85bbf7d8a2]Kendall C[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
21. Larue C
22. Logan CF
23. Fick 1B
24. Carter RP
25. Rodriguez, W. RP

So I opened up with 19 of 25 selections and the 9th free agent claims position. I was hoping to get three of my top six, and got just that, with some pretty decent proxies in Tejeda and Edmonds (the other four were throwaways). Because I planned/hoped to get the best mix of three starters, I went heavy on cheap RP high up on the card. I don't always draft this way, but my specialists are important to this set-up and I wanted who I wanted.

I picked up Haren SP (*), Carrasco RP, Lugo DH and chased Pujols (but missed him) in the free agent draft (9th pick, couldn't expect much here), but D. Lee was available and he sat on my roster for a time. I wanted a Big Hammer, but couldn't reconcile myself to believe that Lee plus a $3 mil guy was better than two 8s. So I dumped him and [b:85bbf7d8a2]Aray[/b:85bbf7d8a2] had him within seconds.

[b:85bbf7d8a2]I. Salary Construction[/b:85bbf7d8a2]

When we were all done scurrying about, this is what I ended up with as compared to my salary construction framework (the best record teams' averages are on the left):

1. $7.66 - $8.95 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Martinez SP (*)[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
2. $6.03 - $5.52 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Carrasco RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
3. $5.23 - $5.30 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Patterson SP (*)[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
4. $4.02 - $3.99 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Oswalt SP (*)[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
5. $2.65 - $3.21 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Haren SP (*)[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
6. $2.05 - $0.96 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Dingman RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
7. $1.55 - $0.76 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Sanchez RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
8. $1.13 - $0.63 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Madson RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
9. $0.95 - $0.52 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Rodriguez, W. RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
10. $ 0.62 - $0.51 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Mercker RP[/color:85bbf7d8a2]

1. $8.61 - $8.62 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Edmonds CF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
2. $7.22 - $8.46 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Sexson 1B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
3. $6.59 - $6.50 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Tejeda SS[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
4. $5.51 - $6.33 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Jenkins RF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
5. $4.24 - $3.72 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Kennedy 2B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
6. $3.74 - $3.18 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Betemit 3B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
7. $3.10 - $3.17 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Conine LF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
8. $2.14 - $3.07 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Lugo DH[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
9. $1.69 - $2.07 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Bell 3B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
10. $1.10 - $1.58 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Navarro C[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
11. $0.86 - $1.03 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Molina, J C[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
12. $0.73 - $0.67 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Cora 2B[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
13. $0.67 - $0.62 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Pierre CF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]
14. $0.61 - $0.62 [color=darkblue:85bbf7d8a2]Everett LF[/color:85bbf7d8a2]


$30.35 on pitching, $49.64 on hitting, $0.01 left in the bank. Originally I had 11 pitchers and spent $32 million, but later I added an extra platoon and shorted myself Timlin from the opening day roster.

[b:85bbf7d8a2]II. Pitching[/b:85bbf7d8a2]

I like my starting SPs, especially with Martinez as the ace. The key factor here is that I spent the bulk of my pitching dollars on the guys who will get the most innings pitched ($23.76 on the top four guys). It's a pretty pitcher-friendly league, so I'm hoping to get away with the five cheap specialists to complement Carrasco in the pen.

[b:85bbf7d8a2]III. Defense[/b:85bbf7d8a2]

I'm sound defensively, although the errors between Betemit/Bell, Tejeda and Conine will haunt me on occasion. The big bats come at a price, and hopefully HAL will scatter the errors for me so as not to cost too many ballgames. Up the middle I'm 2B-[b:85bbf7d8a2]2[/b:85bbf7d8a2], SS-[b:85bbf7d8a2]2[/b:85bbf7d8a2], CF-[b:85bbf7d8a2]1[/b:85bbf7d8a2].

[b:85bbf7d8a2]IV. Offense[/b:85bbf7d8a2]

I will be facing seven opposing left hand pitchers in my division, and eight more throughout the rest of the league, which caused me a bit of anxiety. Lee and/or Helton at 1B couldn't carry the left side by themselves, so I opted for Edmonds (3L) and Sexson (4L) as co-Hammers on this team, which meant that Ensberg had to go, even though I love his card. I'm pretty balanced line-up wise, with five lefties against RHP and six righties against LHP.

[b:85bbf7d8a2]V. Intangibles[/b:85bbf7d8a2]

1. HAL hates Edmonds, and he doesn't particularly love Tejeda either. This worries me more than just about anything else.

2. With the exception of Double-Play [i:85bbf7d8a2]extraordinaire[/i:85bbf7d8a2] Tejeda, my line-up is pretty free of double plays (at least so much so as can be expected). I hope having Lugo in front of Tejeda will minimize the impact.

3. Injuries - Kennedy is a 3, but Cora is a serviceable back-up. Edmonds will go down in the stretch for 15, he always seems to for me anyway, so Pierre will need to step in as needed.

4. Clutch - With the exception of the top of the order (Conine, Lugo and Bell (vs. LHP)), I believe my clutch is neutral to slightly positive.

So that's it in a nutshell, from A to Z. The first order of business is to of course win my division, where Top Dog [b:85bbf7d8a2]Altec1969[/b:85bbf7d8a2] will be battling me with what looks to be a formidable team. [b:85bbf7d8a2]Aray[/b:85bbf7d8a2] will be there in the end also, if D. Lee can shoulder the load for him.

I'm not looking forward to how HAL will treat me after all this posting about my own team, and I can expect the first week to be particularly brutal if the past is prologue. So I'm off to my makeshift altar to burn some incense and offer some sacrifices, so that HAL might treat me mercifully.

I'm looking forward to Marcus' new thread, where I hope to join in, but I'm pretty much done here for awhile. I'll check back to answer questions or offer some observation from time to time as the case merits. Thanks to all who visited and posted, I [i:85bbf7d8a2]very much[/i:85bbf7d8a2] appreciated and enjoyed the dialogue and hope others have found it to be helpful as well.

(11:00 pm CST. Less than an hour to the first series' scores...)

[jpgavin]

[quote:07f017a69d="Sacramento Yankees"] What would be fun is to do a couple of 80 Million one park only leagues just to wash out the ballpark factor as a meaningful stat and test some of the other theories.[/quote:07f017a69d]

This seems like a great idea. One of the "theories" debated in this thread that might be worth testing is the "Everret vs. Larkin" at shortstop debate. Set up a league with each team playing in Yankee Stadium or Turner. One division could test shortstops (Wilson and Everett for defense Peralta and Ellis on offense), one 2B (Hudson and Castillo for defense, Utley and Kent as hitters) and one division could test CF (maybe Tavaras and Reed vs Bay and Giles). Each team would have to trade the player they're testing after 81 games. (Everett for Peralta, Wilson for Ellis etc...) The change in performance in the teams from the first half to the second half might help answer the question. Of course it might just muddy the waters even further. It would be fun either way.

[askaufman]

I did follow your advice. I watched winning teams and fashioned my team. Number one to me is walks. Brian Giles and Berkman and like geekor said avoinding DP players. Also stay away from high strikeout players. I found if you have a monster bullpen you can get by with okay pitchers. I have a 6mil, 5mil and three 3mils but had 4 relievers over 4 mil. Ballpark was key. White Sox park allowed me lots of homeruns and my pitchers that did not give up many, Duke, Chacin, Kazmir, to thrive. Had D. lee, Giles and Berkman. Everyone else was under five mil.

[stevep107]

J-Pav:

Firstly, congratulations on creating this terrific thread. I don't normally get time to contribute to these discussions, but for what it is worth, here are a few thoughts:


[quote:0d96c17845]1. $32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).
[/quote:0d96c17845]

I had a look at my teams that have finished the season with 90 wins or more and calculated that I spent an average of just under $28m on pitching on each of these teams. The lowest was $24.93m and the highest was $29.85m.

So, is $32m the magic number? I don't think so.

Is there a magic number? Probably not, but $25m-$30m seems to work for me.

[quote:0d96c17845]2. Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.
[/quote:0d96c17845]

I will not use a CF with a defence rating above "2" and I almost always use a "1" or a "2" at SS and 2B. I will also not use a LF or RF above a "3". At 1B and 3B, I rarely use anyone above a "3".

I will not use a catcher with a positive arm rating.

I will rarely (if ever) use an outfield with a positive arm rating.

[quote:0d96c17845]3. To win in '05, you must get the most mileage out of your pitching.
3A. Low WHIP (leaning towards lower total bases, I argue).
3B. Low ERA (you must finish well in runs allowed)[/quote:0d96c17845]

Agree with this, although I'd say that a low WHIP is more important than a low ERA.

[quote:0d96c17845]4. Players suited to your park (there is a tendency for Shea and Minute Maid to be the CHAMPS' park of choice).[/quote:0d96c17845]

Actually, I think PNC was the LH hitting ballpark of choice in 2006. I played almost exclusively in Minute Maid and PNC and actually found that I did better in PNC than I did in Minute Maid. Not sure why. Maybe because in PNC I tend to go with more LH SPs and in Minute Maid I go with four RH * SPs. RH hitting lineups (generally speaking) tend to be stronger than LH hitting line-ups. Maybe this is the reason.

[quote:0d96c17845]5. Study the CHAMPS teams you've played against, as well as the teams with the best winning records in the Record Book.[/quote:0d96c17845]

Not a bad idea, although I have to say that I usually don't bother with this.

[quote:0d96c17845]6. Win your division. You can't win it all if you're not in the playoffs to begin with. After that, it's pretty much a numbers game (and luck) to win it all (10 teams=four playoffs=one title).[/quote:0d96c17845]

I agree with this statement although it's not really part of "The Secret Formula".

Regards,

Steve

[LA Bear]

7. Minimize idle bench dollars. Maximize the innings and AB's of your $80M...in other words don't let $'s rot on your bench.

[geekor]

[quote:bf54dffedd]Actually, I think PNC was the LH hitting ballpark of choice in 2006. I played almost exclusively in Minute Maid and PNC and actually found that I did better in PNC than I did in Minute Maid. Not sure why. Maybe because in PNC I tend to go with more LH SPs and in Minute Maid I go with four RH * SPs. RH hitting lineups (generally speaking) tend to be stronger than LH hitting line-ups. Maybe this is the reason. [/quote:bf54dffedd]

This may be an inherent to any year. Shea in 03 for example. The main reason as most LH hitting is better vs R, and you usually face about 75% RH pitching. couple that with the fact that there are always more decent hard R then reverse R, let alone never many good LHP. Seeing as the average is facing about 25% LHP, your team is already set to crush R more. It is usually much harder to find good RH hitters who hit R better (06 is kinda a boon year in that respect) to make the MM teams go.

[Jerlins]

You'll also find most of the hitters in the top 25 price wise better hitters vs RH. So, with a left handed park, and a lefthanded pitching staff, you can neutralize or somewhat weaken at least 20 of the 25 best hitters in the 06 set. Jones, ARod, Pujols, Helton, B. Giles...the list goes on.