The secret to success

[ugrant]

Keyzick - look at the comment above the 83.3% chance of having a 20% chance of achieving the "good" column. The "stand alone" comment.

I'll restate that a different way:

Columns duplicate, 16.7% chance of a 100% chance to get a "good" column. Maximum chance to achieve 16.7%

Columns do not duplicate, 83.3% chance to have a 20% chance to get a "good" column. Maximum chance to achieve 20%

The 16.7/83.3 chance split determines whether or not the column duplicates, not the outcome after that determination has been made. Essentially, the non duplicate column lineup is a bet against a duplicate roll.

[Stoney18]

I'm dumbfounded how this conversation has kept going.

[maligned]

We're all too competitive not to take a stab at being the one that can make the little light turn on.

[J-Pav]

[b:85f94cd1ea]Wachovia[/b:85f94cd1ea], [b:85f94cd1ea]voovits[/b:85f94cd1ea] and [b:85f94cd1ea]ugrant[/b:85f94cd1ea] go into a hotel conference room to discuss SOM Online probabilities. The receptionist tells them the room will cost $30.00. Each man pays $10.00 before going into the conference room. The clerk then realizes they were mistakenly given a $25.00 conference room, and sends the bellhop to return them the sum of $5.00.

The bellhop, understanding it will be difficult to split five dollars between three people, keeps $2.00 for himself as a tip and each man receives a $1.00 refund, with the room subsequently costing $9.00 per person. Three times $9.00 is $27.00. With the $2.00 the bellhop kept, that's only $29.00.

[b:85f94cd1ea]ugrant[/b:85f94cd1ea] asks [b:85f94cd1ea]voovits[/b:85f94cd1ea] and [b:85f94cd1ea]wachovia[/b:85f94cd1ea]:

[size=18:85f94cd1ea]Where's the missing dollar?? [/size:85f94cd1ea]

[i:85f94cd1ea]P.S. **Note to Marcus: This is not Canadian foreign exchange sleight of hand.**[/i:85f94cd1ea]

[MARCPELLETIER]

Ha! Ha! J-Pav. I was EXACTLY thinking about this story with regards to this thread.

[ugrant]

The $2.00 that the bellhop kept is part of the $27 to rent the room, it's accounted for in the $9 X 3 ($25 to the house, $2 to the bellhop). The $3.00 back combines with the $27 to make the original $30.

[hendrix08]

Ugrant,

See if this helps. Lets take your logic and apply it to an even more simplistic scenario. Lets assume you start by picking the left or right columns as the first step (instead of column 1-6) then you go on to look at your chances of picking the correct column from the remaining 3 columns on that side. Here is your logic, as you previously explained, applied to this scenario.

Ugrant wrote (my edits are in [b:20dfa7c202]bold[/b:20dfa7c202]):
[quote:20dfa7c202]The player who alternates his lineup so that "good" column [b:20dfa7c202]sides[/b:20dfa7c202] do not replicate (as much as possible, it happens sometimes it can't be done based on the players cards in the lineup) is taking the odds that the [b:20dfa7c202]1/2[/b:20dfa7c202] chance of the roll not duplicating occurs - the [b:20dfa7c202]50[/b:20dfa7c202]% chance. If that occurs, then there are [b:20dfa7c202]three[/b:20dfa7c202] columns left. The alternating column [b:20dfa7c202]side[/b:20dfa7c202] player now has a 1/[b:20dfa7c202]3[/b:20dfa7c202] chance of having the "good" column rolled ([b:20dfa7c202]33[/b:20dfa7c202]%).[/quote:20dfa7c202]

Based on your logic if you alternated good column sides you would double your odds (33% instead of 16.7%) of getting a favorable roll.

[voovits]

[quote:c8d35c3906="ugrant"]The $2.00 that the bellhop kept is part of the $27 to rent the room, it's accounted for in the $9 X 3 ($25 to the house, $2 to the bellhop). The $3.00 back combines with the $27 to make the original $30.[/quote:c8d35c3906]

Don't forget though, there is an 83.3% chance that you'll have a 20% chance that the bellhop gave back a different dollar than was originally used to pay for the room, and a 16.7% chance that he gave back one of the original dollars. If you're betting on those dollars, you'll have greater odds of getting back a different dollar if you disregard the 1/6 chance of guaranteeing you get back the original dollar.
On top of all that, there's a 1/5 chance that someone will alert the hotel manager and you'll get the extra 2 dollars you got shorted back.

[CHARLESBELL]

Ok, I shouldn't, but I'm getting sucked in here.

I'm sticking with just two rolls here, and maybe this will make more sense.

Assuming column 1 is the good column, your scenario is based on the chance of NOT getting column 1 on the second roll, which is of course 5/6.

The question you should really be asking is what are the chances of landing on the good column for your second roll. It's 1/6, as it is for every roll, whether it's column 1 or some other column.

What is NOT rolled is irrelevant. The only important thing is whether the second roll hits the good column. That column could just as easily be column 1 again, or any other column. And once again, that number is ALWAYS 1/6.

Settings batting orders based on columns does not change the odds.

[ugrant]

I think I'll just take my leave from this topic, crawl back into my hole and bid you all adieu.

Best of luck to you all in your Strat endeavors.