All right... who else is getting frustrated?

All right... who else is getting frustrated?

Postby Coffeeholic » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:52 am

I'm getting really tired of playing .500 ball and can't seem to break the trend.

I've got 6 teams running right now with a combined record of exactly 500% (294-294). My winning % overall is actually a bit higher (.515), but only because I've had a few of my completed teams win 90+.

Day in and day out I'm losing to teams which (IMO) are incorrectly matched to their stadiums and opponents or provide easy match-up opportunities.

I see players who suck for me excelling for others, even though my environment should be more favorable to them. Righty killing pitchers shutting out me in Safeco, lefty killers dominate me in Minute Maid, etc,etc...?

I know alot of excellent players are also struggling along at .500, and was wonderring how you feel and what your thoughts might be?
Last edited by Coffeeholic on Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Sykes25 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:28 am

I have to disagree. Normally in the 200X product, I hovered around a .500 winning pct. In 2006, when I have created my team to fit MY PARK, I have really excelled, where I used to worry a bit too much about my division foes.

The most important factor has been to make sure to look at the L/R splits of your opponent and regardless of what their R or L ratings show, be sure to throw pitchers at them that statistically have kept them at bay thus far. You'll find yourself winning 2 of 3 regularly regardless if the match-up is Mike Maroth vs Pedro Martinez. When at home, I don't care who I face. My team will compete. I use teh situational starters for those road games to keep me at .500 on the road.

Use the stats to your advantage. I suspect others are doing that against you. :)
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Postby visick » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:52 am

I started out 2006 with 1 carry over credit, and buying a 5 pack.

I made the playoffs 5X, and even won a championship. :D

I made sure I wasn't going to get beat at home by having the right pitchers throwing for me. I spot started a number of cheaper SP's on the road, that were good fits against the road teams.

This seemed to work for me, as evidenced by my record with the first 6 teams.

I would scratch my head when I lost 3X in a season @ home (Safeco) to Chris Carpenter. I thought the 5-7 lefty/switchy bats would kill him. I was wrong.

fast forward to my next 6 teams...

I'm struggling using the same game plan. Guys that "should" do well, are sucking. Guys that should be getting bombed, are throwing comlete games.

ie. I'm playing in Fenway right now and I thought Carpenter would be lights out. Well...I had to drop him about 1/3 of the way through. He was CONSTANTLY getting bombed. He was giving up 2X as many hits as innings pitched.

Then I figured I would throw Robertson @ home (Fenway). He goes on to throw a 4 hitter and I win.


Players:
In a league that just finished, Valverde was lights out for a friend of mine. Although he's stronger vs. lefties, he saw 2X as many righties and still phenomenal.

So I grab him to close in in PNC. He's my setup man BOTH ways, with the closer left blank. He's facing twice as many righties than lefties. We're 63 games in and he's just now under 4 with his ERA and 1.5 with his WHIP. Plus, HAL for some reason likes Eyre more than him, and will use him more than Valverde.

I'm gonna finish my last 4 teams, and take a looooong break from Strat, I think. If a team should make the playoffs and I should grab a credit, I'll probably use it, but I don't know when... :?
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Postby visick » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:05 am

Sykes,

I posted a question in the strategy section awhile ago.

You say you fit your team to your park. Does that mean, you throw your starters that are "made" for your park, OR do you throw your starters that are a good fit vs. your opponents?

If it's confusing, I'm sorry.

During the setup/waivers/frenzy process, do you:
A. Grab SP's that are a ggod fit for your park? ie. Carpenter in MM
or
B. Take a look @ your division, and grab your SP's based upon what the lineup will be? (Thus using your opponents roster primarily and your park secondary)
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Postby geekor » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:32 am

your old way no longer work young one. You must evolve or be left below :P
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Postby Sykes25 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:50 am

[quote:61b03a2561="socalchiro"]Sykes,

You say you fit your team to your park. Does that mean, you throw your starters that are "made" for your park, OR do you throw your starters that are a good fit vs. your opponents?

During the setup/waivers/frenzy process, do you:
A. Grab SP's that are a ggod fit for your park? ie. Carpenter in MM
or
B. Take a look @ your division, and grab your SP's based upon what the lineup will be? (Thus using your opponents roster primarily and your park secondary)[/quote:61b03a2561]

Regardless of who is coming into my house, I use guys that will do well in MY park. I usually carry 5-6 SP nowdays even if 4 of them are *SP. 1 of them is usually geared to parks in my division, and the other is an extreme pitcher who thrives in my park and could be used to bump a *SP out a day even if it is to face somebody on the road.

Example: Tour team in Safeco with Wrigley, MM and Kaufmann in divison
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=4862

I forced my opponents to face all lefties when visiting me at home, but left Oswalt in from time to time instead of Schilling. Used Wood on the road to start instead of RJ. Set-up was changed manually series to series, but was mostly Wood/Qualls with Rivera closing and having the best year I have ever had with Mo in any TSN season thus far.
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Postby visick » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:19 pm

Thanks geekor. :? :?

For that comment, young grasshopper, you need to buy me a drink in Old Town Pasadena. :D

I've been trying to evolve since the losing streak. I too have been going with 3-4 *SP's and 2-3 cheap match up SP's.

Hitting wise...I'm in the Iron Glove league, playing in PNC. I thought Dunn would be raking, going up against 10 RHSP's. Instead, I dumped his lazy fat A-S-S after 2 weeks when he hit 4 HR's and was under the Mendoza.

I've got 7 lefty bats that face my competition. (10 RHSP) Granted I lost alot of potential power in Dunn, but I'm sitting 31-32.

With my pitching in PNC, lefties have an advantage. So when teams visit your park, I "should" try to shut them down. Problem is my staff has seen 2X the amount of righty bats.

Because of a team that plays in MM in my division, I have Lawrence and Byrd on my staff.

Should I throw them @ home when facing a lineup comprised of mostly righties or stay with my lefties @ home?
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Postby Sykes25 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:41 pm

I find that with extreme theme leagues, you have much more difficulty controlling things like this. Much of your dismay is being caused by the extra AB's given up by those "IRON GLOVES".

I'd still suggest keeping your lefties on the mound at home, unless you throw a 7L lefty against a team with 7 RHB who plays hoem games in Wrigley or MM. Then I'd take a chance with Lawrence.
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Postby geekor » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:45 pm

I posted this is a thread while ago (forgot the thread) but I never posted the results.

I firmly beleive many peoples struggle are due to 1 factor, DP's.

Look at the amount of DP's hit into and turned and compare them to 03, or even 05. It's way way up.

So I've been avoiding the high DP guys, as well as trying to get speed into my lineups as much as possible.

It's been working for me, though I have been sorting more and more by BA and not OBP. I wnat guys with hits, which is why I haven't used, and wont use guys like Dunn (6L/13R hits is complete crap), Giambi. There's only 2 guys I use like that, F Thomas and C Pena, only in the Cell, and only down in the 7th 8th spots. Tha'ts because they will hit over 50 Hr's each, which is ok down in the order. I want guys with hits for my first 5-6 spots.

Please don't listen to me though. I don't want my players being taken. My 10 current teams only have a .553 winning %, so I cna't be right. :P
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Postby Terry101 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:20 pm

First of all, it is very difficult to play .500 ball (IMO) Who do you think we are playing against? [i:ea55012374]Everyone[/i:ea55012374] can't play over .500 ball. I think the managers are, for the most part, very good.

The player pricing is just about right on. In 05, when I valued a player more or less than the price would warrant, I would tend to think I was right. Now when that happens, I tend to think the pricing is right, not me. And, I don't think there is only one way to be successful. You have to adjust. The ballpark factor can be overrated; sometimes people go to far to fit their park. Sometimes they worry[i:ea55012374] too[/i:ea55012374] much about their divisional opponents. For example, you may be adjusting for an opponent who can not contend.

This is why this game is so intriging. The best, the very best you can do will not exceed about .560 or so- long term- if that. I think playing .500 is hard. Right now there are so many really good players that could give better advice but one thing I think is important is to really analyze the teams that are below .500 and see what are the reasons, if any. (Sometimes it is just probability). For instance, if you are scoring more runs than you are allowing and still playing below .500. it may be the configuration of your team. High power hitters with low on base tend to score 10 runs then 1 run. High on base tend to be more consistent- not better but more consistent. Also, you may be winning 20-1 and losing lots of one run games. So your team could be better than the record shows. Or worse.

Maybe playing .500 or below isn't a lot of fun, but the fun might be trying to correct your mistakes and keep experimenting and if you do have a 95-100 win team, look at it closely. Why did they win that many? Luck. I doubt it. Play theme leagues, play keeper, keep working to better your craft.

Anyway, here is to the 100 win championship season. May we achieve it- at least once in a while.
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