Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

What are the odds that he would be injured three times in three consecutive at bats? My calculations indicate it to be a one in ten-thousand chance, but it happened to me. If you include the games in which he was injured, he has now missed 29 consecutive games due to injury. Does anyone else have injury horror stories to tell?

[quote:cbf3963201]What are the odds that he would be injured three times in three consecutive at bats? [/quote:cbf3963201]

Surprisingly high, actually. Slightly less than 1%. I think you forget in your calculations the fact that three straight injuries can happen at any time during the season.

1 out of 10 000 represents the risk that Sanders gets hurt at his first three at-bats of the season. But the risk that Sanders gets at his first three at-bats, OR at his 2nd-3rd-4th at-bat, OR at his 3rd-4th-5th at-bat, or at his 4th-5th-6th at bat, or.............or at his last three at-bats, that risk is pretty much higher, closer to 1%.

I once lost Hafner for 29 of 30 games. Lost for 15 back for 1 lost for 14. That, I think is harder to do than Sanders for 29 straight. But to answer your question.

It is a very rare event. More rare than 1 in 10,000. If you were to ask, What are the odds that Sanders gets injured in the NEXT three at bats- the answer is [b:a9ad2ca7f6]1 in 80,000.[/b:a9ad2ca7f6]

But that is not what you are saying. You are saying, I think, What are the odds that Sanders gets injured in three consecutive at bats DURING the season? That answer is what Marcus gave you and is a liitle less than 1%.

You may also ask, ONCE Sanders gets injured what are the odds he gets injured in the next two consecutive at bats and the answer to that is- just under 1 in 2000.

Remember, in any given single game Sanders has only a 90% chance of making through the game WITHOUT getting injured.