Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

What is the difference between attempting a steal while being held on and and while not being held on? Also, my understanding has been that a runner with an "*" steal rating is always held on. Is it a sometimes yes and sometimes no with non-"*" stealers depending on if they get a lead or not?

I had written the following quote in the strategy section, sorry for the recycling but basically:

Held= -2 if stealing with lead and -4 if w/o lead
In my experience from the CD HAL quite often holds runners w/o the "*"I believe it has a lot to do with Safe steal chances with lead and/or with good chances of getting leads.

Here's the old post from the strategy section:

[quote:8e31660e6f]-> Stealing 2B step by step <-

When a runner reaches base the first thing that happens is that the defensive manager announces whether the runner will be held or not (more on that later)

Then after the runner announces the steal attempt you throw the 3 dice (one 20-sided and two 6-sided)

Two things can happen here:

1) If the roll is 1 or 2 then you refer to the Balk/pickoff
2) If the roll is 3 or greater you go on with the steal.

We'll go back to balk/pickoff in a sec. Let's assume the roll was higher than 3 on the 20 sided die.

So, then you take the two 6-sided dice and refer to the lead numbers in the runner's card.

To use your example of Berkman 05 *2-5,10,11/12 (15-7)

Let's say that the roll of the 2 dice was 5 and 3 that totals 8. In this case Berkman has failed to establish his lead and doesn't have to steal.

However, let's say the roll equaled 10, then the lead has been established and the runner must attempt the steal. Remember that by this point the defense has already indicated whether the runner is held or not, this is quite important and I'll go back to it in a sec.

If the roll totals 12 then the runner is automatically out.

Now, before we go on to the steal, let's take a look at the Balk/Pickoff:

With the initial roll of the 20 sided die, if the roll is 2 then the there is the chance of a Balk. You roll the 20 sided die again and if the roll is less than or equal to the pitcher's balk rating then a Balk has been called and all runners advance one base.

If the roll is 1 then the runner could be picked off, you roll the 20 sided die again and if the roll is less than or equal to the second steal rating in the parenthesis, that is the steal w/o lead, then the runner is safe diving back to base and the steal is cancelled, the runner can not attempt to get a lead again on this base. If the roll is higher then the runner is picked off.

Now onto the actual steal.

We'll continue using Berkman *2-5,10/11 (15-7)

And for the sake of this argument we'll use a batter of ('05 numbers):

Oliver Perez: HLD -2
B. Schneider: T -3
Battery sum: -5

Now, when the runner is held you subtract -2 to the steal numbers if the runner got his lead and -4 if the runner is trying to steal w/o his lead. This figure (-2 or -4) is added to the sum of Catcher's T arm and Pitcher's HLD.

Now, let's say in this example that Berkman was being held, immediately his numbers become *2-5,10/11 (13-3) The steal numbers reflecting the defensive HLD

So, Berkman got his lead and therefore he must steal in this hypothetical case so then you take the 13 and you factor in the battery so his safe stealing numbers becomes 8. He has 40% chance of swiping 2B in this case

-Stealing 3rd and home are a bit different as we all know- [/quote:8e31660e6f]

[quote:1239a8a606]my understanding has been that a runner with an "*" steal rating is always held on.[/quote:1239a8a606]

In practical terms, yes, you're right, because Hal always holds a runner with a star.