Can anyone solve this mystery?

[Urishade]

I have been playing Strato since the 2005 game and have had some success winning over .520 of my games and taking home three championships. But my first team in the 2007 games has me absolutely flummoxed. Never being one to build a good offense I opted for RFK and tried to build a team with high OBP, solid pitching, and lots of doubles.

[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=1061&stats=sim[/url]

Things started out ok as I went 5-4 and lost only one of those games by more than a run then the bottom fell out. I have now lost 13 of my last 15 and currently stand 7-17. I am winless (0-7) in one run games and despite playing in pitcher’s park my team ranks 9th in pitching with 4.73 era and a whopping 1.37 whip.

I am beyond frustrated with this team and I’m seriously contemplating “retiring” from Strato because I have never had a winning season in a balanced park and all the stadiums this season are basically balanced. Full disclosure: I made my living on those old lefty balanced parks (Shea 05, Yankee 69, and Safeco 06) where I have a .550 winning percentage so I may just be one of those build a mousetrap kind of players. Winning percentage in neutral parks is only .455.

The other parks in my division are AT&T, Shea, and US Cell and here are my line-ups:

Vs. lefties
Abreu
Theriot
Atkins
McCann
Baldelli
Overbay
Perez
Denforia
Cabrera

Vs. righties
Abreu
Theriot
Atkins
McCann
Overbay
Baldelli
Kennedy
Denforia
Cabrera

Any help or suggestions would be greatly appreciated as I do like this game and would love to continue playing it but I can’t see myself throwing money away season after season getting swept with regularity and finishing in the basement. Thank you.

[albert2b]

Hey there, urishade.

I've experienced similar problems regarding balanced teams playing in neutral parks, mainly in 2006. I've learned the hard way that SOM is a game of odds. And if you don't do anything in particular to swing the odds in your favor like playing in an extreme park, whether it be lefty (Safeco '06), righty (Minute Maid '06), pitcher (Petco '06) or hitter (Coors), then it will be very challenging to be as successful as the managers who DO take advantage of the skewed odds of these parks.

Now in 2007, there are far less extreme lefty/righty parks, so in that respect, one would think managers would be more inclined to go with a neutral park than in previous years....although the possibilty of an extreme hitter/pitcher park is still there. And if they choose to do that, I think they're giving themselves a leg up on the manager who chooses to go neutral.

As for your team, I think you've been getting hit with some bad luck, that's all. It certainly looks solid enough in all areas. You have two top SPs to head your rotation. A nice balanced pen. And your lineup seems to have few holes as well (although Baldelli's injury could leave you short a big bat in the middle). Overall, I think it's a solid team and certainly not one that should be 7-17. But sometimes, even the best teams go through rough stretches. I would give it some more time. It's a long season. Give guys like Carpenter and Haren a chance to get untracked. They're better than what they've given you thus far.

Hang in there and good luck.

[BRADSANDBOTHE]

I think you will find that even the "Vets" are having similar problems at this early stage.

With the new cards, everyone is trying to find that diamond in the Rough that will get them over the top.

Your season is early on and the rolls could start going your way in a hurry soon as well.

I think with all of the managers trying to find that perfect team with the Ballparks this year is going to be a lot harder and we all will find that our teams won't be winning 100 games much if at all.

I think the more balanced parks will allow for more competitive play across the board with very few surprise teams.

I would give it some time and watch to see if things don't even out.

I have 4 teams going right now and my results are (19-25) (25-19) (15-9) and (2-1). None of the 4 teams is in 1st, but none are more than 3 games out of 1st either.

I think that at the end we will find that there are 2 teams that are way behind, 2 teams that have great years (90 ish wins) and the other 8 teams will all be around the .500 mark fighting for the last 2 playoff spots.

I know this is the law of averages, but that is pretty much what Strato is, The Dice will average out if your team is built properly and it sure seems that you have a team that should win a higher pct. of games.

Hal will relax and you will start winning.

[CHARLESBELL]

I also started a team with doubles and OBP in mind. This is my first and only 2007 team so far. The offense is very similiar. Three of our starters are the same guys, and the rest very nearly even out in my opinion. We should also produce comparable numbers of doubles since we are within one double off the average among our 9 most likely used starters.

I like how you managed to put this offense together with $3M less than I have.

We took a completely different approach in pitching. I am basically field testing some of the more mid-to-modest priced SPs and RPs with particular stats I like to see how they fair and if they would be worth including in future teams.

I think you have the better pitching and have spent your pitching dollars better than I, so I would agree with other posters that I think things will come around for your team.

I have a ballpark I hope will add more doubles than yours might so I'm hpoing it'll make a difference in runs in the end.

I'm only 3 games into the season so I'm not "too" depressed over the ignominous start. Gonna let these guys play awhile and see how they do.

Good luck!

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=1688

[Urishade]

Thank for your responses and words of encouragement. In a way I happy because it was not some egregious error that I made that is causing the problem. But at the same it bums me out that I am just getting worked over by the computer and not given a fair shot. But my biggest concern was that I had done something stupid and that was why the team was failing. So it is good to know otherwise.

On a side note HAL was up to his old tricks last night when Abreu sat out a series due to injury. This is the line-up he put on the field vs. Arroyo:

Denforia
Atkins
Freeman
McCann
Overbay
Baldelli
Kennedy
Theriot
Cabrera

You really have to wonder why he would choose a $.50 player who is a 3L to hit in the all important 3 hole vs. a righty. Additionally why did he feel the necessity to move Theriot and his .400+ OBP (granted he’s a 1L) down to the 8th spot? He has speed and stealing ability so perhaps he should have leadoff with I don’t know maybe somebody like Baldelli hitting 2nd. Needless to say I got swept last night.

[Aisengard]

Yeah, HAL's still wonky. I foolishly put Lance Berkman as my injury-replacement RF-er, so when Milton Bradley got injured, Lance Berkman was leading off (as Milton Bradley was).

I think that in event of an injury IN-SERIES, HAL should readjust, not to the set lineups and their injury replacements, but a lineup based on OBP, SLG, OPS, stealing vs the type of pitcher they're facing. Then the player can readjust.

It would really be best if, instead of backups, we had whole different lineups to account for injury. I don't think it would be too difficult, just a lot of lineups. But as long as 2 games could be played with guys like Lance Berkman leading off against lefties (he's awful against lefties), there needs to be something in place to negate stupidity.

[Jerlins]

Theriot has a few DP's on his card and might not be the ideal #2 hitter. Maybe flip flop him and Abreu.

[maligned]

You've been quite unlucky, really. Your pitching will get better, and your offense has not been opportunistic. Your cumulative stats suggest you should have scored about 15-17 more runs. This would have put your expected record at 13-11. As it is, your expected record with your run differential is 11-13. I would look for your team to turn it around.

[Urishade]

Puckin'

You are in my division in this league and are getting the benefit of my team's malaise and while I don't know you personally I have read a lot of your posts. From that I can tell that some of the other veterans like to bust your chops about your skills so if you don't mind I'll throw out a little nugget for them to chew on.

Just so everyone knows, Puckin's team remains the only team that I have won a series agianst this season. In fact I took both of our series thus far this season and those four wins account for half of my team's meager eight victories. Of course his team is 16-11 and sitting only two games out of first so I am sure he doesn't mind me giving him the business.

To your point Puckin' I do agree that there will be two teams that excel, two that flounder, and eight that tightly battle it out in the middle and it appears that my team has been nominated for one of the two bottom feeder spots. At this time the only thing that remains interesting about this team is to see how low it can sink.

Everyone seems to agree that is just bad luck so it intrgiues me to see how much bad luck can befall this squad. It is obvious that even if this team were to return to a "normal" winning pattern that it will never quite get back into the mix of contending for a playoff spot. So I am left only watch this train wreck unfold as amusement for my $25 donation to TSN. Should be fun.

[CHARLESBELL]

urishade,

While the odds say you are right about your team getting back into the race, there are plenty of examples where teams turn it around when the talent is there.

Here's one example from the 2006 season. This team (coincidentally another doubles based team) started the season 10-20, "improved" to 15-27, made a run "up" to 27-36, and then began a steady march forward that ended with a division title. And they hit 411 doubles, which would have to be up there among the best doubles totals a for team in 2006.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=12289

I wouldn't give up on your team just yet.