Bernie, please explain this! ARGH! DEATH to HAL!!!!!

[BRIANSIELSKI]

Bernie, why was JD Drew being Held at second?

With a LH Batter up, the SS is responsible for holding the runner. There was a gb(ss)X and O. Vizquel gave up a single, and the only way for that to occur was if he was holding JD Drew on at second. (a 1 range becomes a 2 range … and we all know 1 range SS don’t give up clean singles).


JD Drew is at 2nd base. Steal = D (13/4)
Prince Fielder (LH batter at bat)
Omar Vizquel is my SS (1e4)

Embree (+9 hold) is pitching
Pudge is catcher (-4 arm)

Based on Super Advanced Supplemental Steal, therefore for steal of third base, you use the second steal success rating.

Catcher/Pitcher = +5
New rating = 9

Held Effect = -4
New rating = 5


So if I didn’t hold JD Drew, he would only have a 45% chance to make it, if and only if he was able to get a lead (and that’s a 11% chance to boot in the first place).

The HAL logic is way off, and it cost me the game. I would never hold a runner like that.

Thanks

Doc


http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/league/boxscore.html?group_id=1581&g_id=419

[TOMSKELTON]

Dr. Brian,

I read the play differently. Here is the box score:

*** TOP OF INNING 9 ***
0 A.Rodriguez 4 Double (CF) b-2
0 2 J.Drew 1 1 Base Error - P 2-3 b-1 gb(P)x
0 1 3 P.Fielder 3 Single (SS) 3-H 1-3 b-1 gb(SS)x
0 1 3 C.Biggio 5 Line Out (SS) b-0 bpSI 1
1 1 3 D.Newhan 3 Ground Out (2B) Double Play 1-o b-0

As I see it, AROD doubles and Drew reaches on an error. So when Fielder comes to bat it is first and third, with AROD at third and Drew at first. At this point, you are trailing 4 to 1, so the infield is presumably playing in. Fielder's roll results in a gb(ss)x, which for Vizquel would normally be a double play, but because presumably he is playing in, Vizquel becomes a 2, thereby making a single possible. Bad luck that you got a roll that results in a single at the exact moment you are playing the infield in, but if the infield were at normal depth, the run would have scored while the double play was being turned. Everything else being equal, you ended up with the same result (1 run in for the inning) that you would have gotten had Vizquel been playing normal depth. I may be wrong, but that is how I read the play.

[BRIANSIELSKI]

Norm,

Bringing the Infield In does not affect the defensive Range of any player.

Bringing the Infiled In only affects GB(A), GB(B) and GB(C) and the GB - "+" ratings.

In any event, even with JD Drew at 1st base (you're right) ... I still would not have held him

[keyzick]

I always thought infielders playing in have their defensive range bumped up 1. (ie, Vizquel goes from a 1 to a 2)...would make sense, otherwise there's no penalty for playing your fielders in.

[BRIANSIELSKI]

The penalty is the gb()+ ratings. Those outs become singles.

After looking at the charts further ... a "1" stays a "1" when Infield is In. However, the # become SI2 ... which means Omar has a 20% chance to not make the play.

Range stays the same ... but there is a slight change on the card.

So that explains the single in my mind if in fact the infiled was in.

Thanks for helping me blow the steam and work through it. :x