advice

[DavidRis]

A few questions about a rodgers center team.
division also has a wrigley, cellular, dolphins...

ok...I have berkman, beltran, vlad G, soriano.....my pitching staff isnt done yet (the wavier draft just ended....but they'll be what you'd expect. hitters park pitchers.

questions:

Beltran is a 1/-4 but vlad is 4/-4 and soriano 4/-3....is that one too many 4's for the OF even though they both have cannons?

Also, I have rollins and renteria at ss. Think rollins def is that much more of a reason to keep him over rent offense?? and where would you bat him??

Luke Scott is avail...any thoughts?

also why isnt anyone using j. carrol??? I was thinking about him for 2b


thanks for any advice you guys can offer!

8)

[DavidRis]

here's a link...

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=7614


please keep in mind that I have not put together the pitching staff yet as I'm waiting for good options to become avail. Also I've stockpiled some offensive players until I figure out who to keep and who not to.
:)

[geekor]

yes 2 4's is too much, 4's give up much more doubles and triples over a 3. L Scott is an awsome card in any park, I would definetly aim for him over Soriano (who for me has power, but his Ba/OBP always seems to be dreadful) Vlad is too good to let go.

I personally don't like Rollins card... any other 2's out there?

[DavidRis]

cabrera???

ok so I dropped rollins and renteria.....picked up scott.

my lineup now is:

1
2 scott lf
3 berkman 1b
4 beltran cf
5 vlad rf
6 soriano dh
7 young ss
8 paulino c
9

I still have ensberg 3b, and sheffield dh, kennedy 2b

I need a leadoff....what about carrol 2b???
lowell is also avail for 3b??
:)

[Jerlins]

Rollins has done well for me actually. With 9 games left here's what he's done for me in Rogers:


613 98 177 42 12 23 74 49 92 23 8 15 .289 .340 .509

[DavidRis]

ok. you're killing me!
:)
just kidding....

but I need a leadoff hitter, right??

I'm trying to trade soriano.......should lowell 3b be on this team?

[geekor]

Carrol is good enough leadoff vs L, but at 42 OBP isn't exactly ideal vs R. Though a 2e5 at 2b is good!

A Crazy idea here....

you could drop Soranio for Atkins top play 3b. The pick up a J Smith/Mackowiak platoon to play DH and leadoff vs L/R. Or better pick up Carrol for 2b, and platoon Shef with Mack, shef to drive in vs L, Mack to leadoff vs R. Of course you'd need another 2 mil to do that.... not sure if sacraficing your C and pitching is something you like to do (with that linuep cheap C is all you need batting 8th).

Mack, Scott, Berk, Vlad, Baltran, Atkins (3-6 really could go lots of ways), Young, C, Carrol vs R should mash it.

maybe look at Beimel, Thomspson, Yates as possible some cheap RP's to eat innings.

just an idea, if you like the mash it and pray your pitching holds them to 5 runs type of teams.

if you dont Ensberg can already lead off vs L, but you need a leadoff vs R.

[durantjerry]

I don't think two fours is too much. If they are very good offensively(irreplacable) and the rest of your defense is very good, I would do it. In fact, I have the best record in a Tour league playing all year with Thames/Manny in LF and Vlad in RF. Of course I have Everett, Hudson and Cameron in the key middle of the diamond positions. I just read a post that showed the LF/RF X occurs on less than 3% of the rolls. I roughly translate that to about once every three or so games, which to me is an acceptable price for having Manny and Vlad in your lineup. Of course, I suck at probability. Rollins is good in a hitting park and will pop 25 or so homeruns. Also, I think hid "D" is the minimum I would use if starting two 4 rated guys. I will find out and report back on after finishing Tour league #3, with Rollins @ ss and Holiday/Vlad in the OF.

[geekor]

I'll clarify...

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/stratfldg.htm

yes the difference from a 3 to 4 isn't that bad for TB's.... just when they give up that extra hit, many times it turns into a double or triple instead of a single. But you see on average the difference between that 3 and 4 is 7 tb's per game, so if his hitting outweighs that, play the 4.

I just thought Scott was available and such a good hitter (50+ ob vs L and R, very very low dp's vs each, and the highest tb's vs R, though very low tb's vs L), he is still the better choice.

[durantjerry]

What exactly does the "Total Bases" figure represent? If I am correct and the LF/RF X only happens less than 3% of the time, which I am calling every three games, doesn't the math go something like:
% chance of a negative result for a "4" x 54 games(once every three games)=number of games a negative result will occur
Is my formula correct if you accept that just under 3%(I think the post said 2.78%) is close to every three games?