How often is this important and where in the lineup is it the most valuable? I remember a thread from the "historical documents" the old message boards that they are the most value in the 6, 7 and 8 positions in your lineup. Can someone shed some light on where +'ve clutch is the most value?
BTW: I just had to drop -9 Luis Gonzalez...the bum was killing my lower 3rd of my lineup.
Who has the highest +'ve clutch in the 2007 game?
Clutch hitting?
5 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Clutch hitting?
by LA Bear » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:22 am
- LA Bear
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Mean Dean » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:23 am
[url=http://forums-beta.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=69393]Here's my study on the subject.[/url]
Clutch is one of those things that "feels like" it has a much bigger impact than it actually does. I'll walk you through the math. Although of course this'll vary depending on your team and where the player hits, let's take the average of RISP/2 out situations that there was in real life from the years 1974-2004; this average was 12% of total PA. So if the batter comes up 650 times, and 12% of his PA are with RISP/2 outs, that'd be 78 PA. Then, 39 of the 78 results will be off the pitcher's card. So we're talking about only 39 PA all season where clutch even begins to become an issue. Let's say the batter is a .300 hitter off his card normally (32.4 of 108 hit chances.) If he's a -9 clutch, which is about as bad as it gets, he'll be a .217 hitter in the 39 AB. .300 * 39 = 11.7 hits. .217 * 39 = 8.5 hits. So in what is basically the worst-case scenario, you're talking about three fewer singles over the entire year (since clutch does only affect singles, as far as I can recall; walks and extra-base power remain the same.) And it's not like he even [i:7e4f63301f]loses[/i:7e4f63301f] those three singles; he just gets them at other times. Possibly even to lead off innings, which is as "clutch" as a "clutch" situation if not more so, in terms of changing your run expectancy for the inning. I can't get too worked up over it.
Clutch is one of those things that "feels like" it has a much bigger impact than it actually does. I'll walk you through the math. Although of course this'll vary depending on your team and where the player hits, let's take the average of RISP/2 out situations that there was in real life from the years 1974-2004; this average was 12% of total PA. So if the batter comes up 650 times, and 12% of his PA are with RISP/2 outs, that'd be 78 PA. Then, 39 of the 78 results will be off the pitcher's card. So we're talking about only 39 PA all season where clutch even begins to become an issue. Let's say the batter is a .300 hitter off his card normally (32.4 of 108 hit chances.) If he's a -9 clutch, which is about as bad as it gets, he'll be a .217 hitter in the 39 AB. .300 * 39 = 11.7 hits. .217 * 39 = 8.5 hits. So in what is basically the worst-case scenario, you're talking about three fewer singles over the entire year (since clutch does only affect singles, as far as I can recall; walks and extra-base power remain the same.) And it's not like he even [i:7e4f63301f]loses[/i:7e4f63301f] those three singles; he just gets them at other times. Possibly even to lead off innings, which is as "clutch" as a "clutch" situation if not more so, in terms of changing your run expectancy for the inning. I can't get too worked up over it.
- Mean Dean
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by LA Bear » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:05 am
Feel good? If the situation comes up just once or twice a game, I'd rather have a 300 hitter at the plate than a 200 hitter. Especially in tight ballgames...which in a pitcher's park, there are many...I'd like at least a prayer to deliver the clutch hit.
- LA Bear
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by LA Bear » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:44 pm
DeanTSC: You didn't waste your time at all. My club is competitive and in a pitcher's ballpark. LGON was killing me batting less than his weight with almost no RBIs with Papi, Lowell and Youk all doing AOK in front of him after one tour around the league. Youk and Lowell are hitting doubles...replacing a -9 wit a +9 should be about 6 key hits/annum using your analysis...that was enough to justify it in my mind. BTW the LF 4 (+2) was also a factor. I hope you understand my point of view. LA Bear
- LA Bear
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
5 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Return to Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online 20xx
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests