The Secret Formula: Final Installment
Posted: Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:41 pmHere is an eight team list of $80 million league CHAMPS teams, taken out-of-sample (ie, after I first wrote about the Secret Formula back in August):
The [b:683a0e467c]CHAMPS[/b:683a0e467c] Secret Formula:
1. [i:683a0e467c]$32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).[/i:683a0e467c]
The last eight CHAMPS teams also spent $31 million on pitching, $49 million on hitting (on average). On average, they had just over $18 million on starters, and just under $13 million on relievers. This is precisely as last reported. However, as an interesting aside, the range was [i:683a0e467c]much[/i:683a0e467c] wider this time ($10.86-24.32 for starters, $7.59-21.32 for relievers).
2. [i:683a0e467c]Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.[/i:683a0e467c]
Also exactly as previously reported, these eight teams had 1s and 2s exclusively at SS (1.88 avg); 1s and 2s exclusively in CF (1.75 avg) and 1s, 2s and (two) 3s at 2B (1.88 avg).
3. [i:683a0e467c]To win in '05, you must get the most mileage out of your pitching.[/i:683a0e467c]
In this particular sample, the pitching seems to have come down. I've noticed more teams giving a go at the high-powered offense in a hitters park strategy, so maybe this is reflected in the pitching stats.
3A. [i:683a0e467c]Low WHIP (leaning towards lower total bases, I argue)[/i:683a0e467c].
The average WHIP was 1.38, up from 1.30. The hits per inning pitched moved up to 0.99, from 0.95.
3B. [i:683a0e467c]Low ERA (you must finish well in runs allowed)[/i:683a0e467c]
The average ERA of 4.41 was up from an even 4.00. The average place finish for earned runs allowed slipped to top 5 (from top 3 earlier), with the offense moving up accordingly to almost top 4 on average (from middle of the pack previously).
4. [i:683a0e467c]Players suited to your park [/i:683a0e467c]
Of the eight teams, there were all unique ballparks (Fenway, US Cellular, Bank One, Pro Player, Minute Maid, Safeco, Great American and Ameriquest). Where are all the Sheas??? The teams again still average a 90-72 record, as previously reported.
[b:683a0e467c]CASE STUDY[/b:683a0e467c]
After I wrote the first Secret Formula thread, I went out and drafted a team I cleverly called [i:683a0e467c][b:683a0e467c]The Secret Formula[/b:683a0e467c][/i:683a0e467c]:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=18822
This was my attempt to sample some of my own cooking, as posted here in the threads.
From the "I Love Me" section, I'm happy to report that this Shea team finished first in offense (with 936 runs scored) and first in pitching (3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0.89 HIP) and posted 273 net runs, and a 100-62 record. This team stormed out of the gate with a 50-14 start.
HAL loves me a little less than I love me, though. I went 50-48 after the hot start, and HAL gave 21-9 Ted Lilly (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.71 HIP) a ten game injury with a big lead in the 7th inning of game 160. I play [b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c] in the semis next week, so my karma definitely just got a bit thinner.
The four playoff teams finished 1, 3, 4 and 5 in runs scored and 1, 2, 4 and 8 in earned runs allowed.
These four teams spent $18.77 on starters, $11.02 on relievers ([b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c]s effective low budget $5 pen brought this figure lower) for a total spent on pitching just under $30 million. Average ERA was 4.29 (vs 4.77 league average), average WHIP 1.34 (league average 1.44), average HIP 0.97 (rest of the league averaged 1.03).
Defense? What else, all 1s and 2s, with one 3 at 2B.
I may just be a stater of the unspoken obvious, but it seems to me that if you're [i:683a0e467c]hanging around[/i:683a0e467c] these few core ideas, you stand a dramatically improved chance of finding success in terms of winning percentage.
This is not the be all end all, [i:683a0e467c]context[/i:683a0e467c] plays probably even a much larger role than I've given it credit for. That is, the ability to assess your opponents after the waiver draft and adjust your team accordingly. One manager put together a 94 win season with $18.45 spent on total pitching ($10.86 starters/$7.59 relievers) in a pitchers park. My attempts to duplicate this have been met with [i:683a0e467c]not anywhere nearly[/i:683a0e467c] as effective results. I've been hanging out recently in that $18 starters/$13 relievers range with pretty good success.
So what does any of this mean? In my opinion, you probably want to avoid extreme teams (sub $20 million pitching teams and $40 million pitching teams) unless you understand precisely what you're getting yourself into. These teams were big winners last year, but much less so this year.
Give some thought to your middle infield and centerfield defense. [b:683a0e467c]All 21[/b:683a0e467c] CHAMPS teams I looked at had 1s and 2s at SS and CF, with a handful of 3s at 2B. 21/21 is a pretty statistically significant number in my book, but I have to admit I'm completely motivated to get a 3-3-3 defense team going!!
In the end, like Bill James said, it's all about net runs. Build a pitching staff with an eye toward keeping your ERA around 4.00. Build an offense with an eye toward scoring 6 runs per game. 324 net runs will win you alot of games. You probably won't achieve this stat, but the closer you are the better. Again, avoid the extremes. A 3.00 ERA is terrific, but you'll likely have to use more salary to achieve it and if you're scoring only 3.50 runs per game with the remaining salary, your record will reflect it in the end.
I hope these diatribes are helpful for some of the newer players out there. And I hope some folks will chime in with what they're observing.
Again, my two cents.
The [b:683a0e467c]CHAMPS[/b:683a0e467c] Secret Formula:
1. [i:683a0e467c]$32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).[/i:683a0e467c]
The last eight CHAMPS teams also spent $31 million on pitching, $49 million on hitting (on average). On average, they had just over $18 million on starters, and just under $13 million on relievers. This is precisely as last reported. However, as an interesting aside, the range was [i:683a0e467c]much[/i:683a0e467c] wider this time ($10.86-24.32 for starters, $7.59-21.32 for relievers).
2. [i:683a0e467c]Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.[/i:683a0e467c]
Also exactly as previously reported, these eight teams had 1s and 2s exclusively at SS (1.88 avg); 1s and 2s exclusively in CF (1.75 avg) and 1s, 2s and (two) 3s at 2B (1.88 avg).
3. [i:683a0e467c]To win in '05, you must get the most mileage out of your pitching.[/i:683a0e467c]
In this particular sample, the pitching seems to have come down. I've noticed more teams giving a go at the high-powered offense in a hitters park strategy, so maybe this is reflected in the pitching stats.
3A. [i:683a0e467c]Low WHIP (leaning towards lower total bases, I argue)[/i:683a0e467c].
The average WHIP was 1.38, up from 1.30. The hits per inning pitched moved up to 0.99, from 0.95.
3B. [i:683a0e467c]Low ERA (you must finish well in runs allowed)[/i:683a0e467c]
The average ERA of 4.41 was up from an even 4.00. The average place finish for earned runs allowed slipped to top 5 (from top 3 earlier), with the offense moving up accordingly to almost top 4 on average (from middle of the pack previously).
4. [i:683a0e467c]Players suited to your park [/i:683a0e467c]
Of the eight teams, there were all unique ballparks (Fenway, US Cellular, Bank One, Pro Player, Minute Maid, Safeco, Great American and Ameriquest). Where are all the Sheas??? The teams again still average a 90-72 record, as previously reported.
[b:683a0e467c]CASE STUDY[/b:683a0e467c]
After I wrote the first Secret Formula thread, I went out and drafted a team I cleverly called [i:683a0e467c][b:683a0e467c]The Secret Formula[/b:683a0e467c][/i:683a0e467c]:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=18822
This was my attempt to sample some of my own cooking, as posted here in the threads.
From the "I Love Me" section, I'm happy to report that this Shea team finished first in offense (with 936 runs scored) and first in pitching (3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0.89 HIP) and posted 273 net runs, and a 100-62 record. This team stormed out of the gate with a 50-14 start.
HAL loves me a little less than I love me, though. I went 50-48 after the hot start, and HAL gave 21-9 Ted Lilly (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.71 HIP) a ten game injury with a big lead in the 7th inning of game 160. I play [b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c] in the semis next week, so my karma definitely just got a bit thinner.
The four playoff teams finished 1, 3, 4 and 5 in runs scored and 1, 2, 4 and 8 in earned runs allowed.
These four teams spent $18.77 on starters, $11.02 on relievers ([b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c]s effective low budget $5 pen brought this figure lower) for a total spent on pitching just under $30 million. Average ERA was 4.29 (vs 4.77 league average), average WHIP 1.34 (league average 1.44), average HIP 0.97 (rest of the league averaged 1.03).
Defense? What else, all 1s and 2s, with one 3 at 2B.
I may just be a stater of the unspoken obvious, but it seems to me that if you're [i:683a0e467c]hanging around[/i:683a0e467c] these few core ideas, you stand a dramatically improved chance of finding success in terms of winning percentage.
This is not the be all end all, [i:683a0e467c]context[/i:683a0e467c] plays probably even a much larger role than I've given it credit for. That is, the ability to assess your opponents after the waiver draft and adjust your team accordingly. One manager put together a 94 win season with $18.45 spent on total pitching ($10.86 starters/$7.59 relievers) in a pitchers park. My attempts to duplicate this have been met with [i:683a0e467c]not anywhere nearly[/i:683a0e467c] as effective results. I've been hanging out recently in that $18 starters/$13 relievers range with pretty good success.
So what does any of this mean? In my opinion, you probably want to avoid extreme teams (sub $20 million pitching teams and $40 million pitching teams) unless you understand precisely what you're getting yourself into. These teams were big winners last year, but much less so this year.
Give some thought to your middle infield and centerfield defense. [b:683a0e467c]All 21[/b:683a0e467c] CHAMPS teams I looked at had 1s and 2s at SS and CF, with a handful of 3s at 2B. 21/21 is a pretty statistically significant number in my book, but I have to admit I'm completely motivated to get a 3-3-3 defense team going!!
In the end, like Bill James said, it's all about net runs. Build a pitching staff with an eye toward keeping your ERA around 4.00. Build an offense with an eye toward scoring 6 runs per game. 324 net runs will win you alot of games. You probably won't achieve this stat, but the closer you are the better. Again, avoid the extremes. A 3.00 ERA is terrific, but you'll likely have to use more salary to achieve it and if you're scoring only 3.50 runs per game with the remaining salary, your record will reflect it in the end.
I hope these diatribes are helpful for some of the newer players out there. And I hope some folks will chime in with what they're observing.
Again, my two cents.