Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

I have done OBP and slg % for some of the 2007 set.

My calculations are based on dice % as follows

2= .028 (2.8%)
3= .056
4= .083
5= .111
6= .139
7= .167
8= .139
9= .111
10=.083
11=.056
12=.028

The list below does not take into account ballpark HR orSI

[size=9:29fdf61432]NAME LEFT RIGHT
OBP SLG OBP SLG
ABREU 1.358 .982 1.459 .944
ALOMAR,JR .786 1.202 .729 .884
BAY 1.428 1.147 1.205 1.091
BELTRAN .986 1.018 1.235 1.607
BELTRE 1.029 1.188 .875 1.087
BLOOMQUIST .794 .881 1.012 .555
CABRERA, M 1.289 1.398 1.375 1.520
CABRERA, O .799 .780 1.065 1.125
CANO .952 1.190 1.190 1.777
CASTILLO, L .834 .909 1.131 .942
CINTRON .781 .725 .828 1.035
CIRILLO 1.583 1.722 1.051 .914
CLARK 1.066 .990 1.108 .712
CRAWFORD .970 1.174 .980 1.328
CREDE .870 1.114 .789 1.233
CRISP .817 1.314 .734 .708
CRUZ, J 1.467 1.317 .820 .309
DAVANON .976 .337 1.125 1.168
DENORFIA 1.184 1.166 1.065 .934
DYE 1.353 1.497 1.016 1.490
ECKSTEIN 1.019 .741 .982 1.015
ESCOBAR 1.579 2.043 1.295 1.395
FRANCOEUR .681 1.222 .575 .816
FREEMAN .811 1.088 .465 .611
FURCAL 1.169 1.459 1.061 .965
GILES .854 .628 1.235 .846
GONZALEZ, A .997 1.429 .997 1.229
GRAFFANINO .828 .938 1.030 1.045
GRUDZIELANEK .821 1.104 1.011 1.162
GUERRERO 1.500 2.001 .910 1.344
GUTIERREZ .686 .848 .804 1.068
HELTON 1.279 1.116 1.170 1.048
HOLLANDSWORTH .194 .295 .525 1.047
HOLLIDAY 1.156 1.526 1.150 1.476
HOLLINS .475 1.263 .534 .765
HOWARD .968 1.237 1.242 1.810
INGLETT .700 .512 .913 1.142
IZTURIS .923 .708 1.131 1.035
JOHJIMA .771 .804 .910 1.181
JOHNSON 1.326 1.090 1.200 1.289
JONES, A 1.012 1.039 1.015 1.064
JONES, C .750 1.557 1.351 1.427
KEPPINGER .751 1.036 .850 .830
KIELTY 1.024 1.814 .749 .641
KOTSAY .720 1.048 .942 .976
LANGERHANS 1.042 .430 .890 .686
LIEBERTHAL .834 .980 .777 1.089
LOFTON .611 .597 1.008 1.289
LOPEZ, F .839 .801 1.168 .812
LORETTA 1.075 .764 .978 .917
MARKAKIS 1.028 1.230 .979 1.045
MARTINEZ, R 1.034 .817 .923 1.014
MATSUI .622 .317 .771 1.270
MATTHEWS Jr 1.086 1.473 1.083 1.216
MILES 1.062 .927 .724 .924
MOLINA, J .500 .746 .603 1.089
MOLINA, Y .598 .631 .533 .566
MORNEAU 1.053 1.624 1.103 1.400
NAVARRO 1.258 .599 .707 .666
OVERBAY .877 1.073 1.173 1.314
PAYTON .846 1.197 .953 1.301
PEREZ, E .834 1.142 .563 .070
PODSEDNIK .714 .641 .953 .963
POLANCO .737 1.141 .925 .958
POOSADA 1.027 .721 1.129 1.029
PUJOLS 1.301 1.668 1.336 2.078
RAMIREZ, A .843 .984 .995 1.420
REYES 1.082 1.409 .858 1.194
ROBERTS, B .966 .675 1.014 1.154
RODRIGUEZ, I 1.094 1.403 .765 .984
ROLEN .943 .998 1.156 1.444
ROLLINS .817 1.094 .860 1.132
SCHNEIDER .808 .908 .725 .819
SHOPPACH .891 1.144 .577 .521
SORIANO 1.116 1.445 .879 1.473
SPIEZIO 1.198 .934 .994 1.176
SUZUKI 1.366 1.643 1.047 1.316
THERIOT 1.671 1.159 1.195 1.503
TORREALBA .644 1.200 .696 .948
VARITEK .667 .549 .796 .694
VIZQUEL 1.276 .981 .903 1.050
WELLS 1.232 1.310 .961 1.283
WILSON, P .850 1.006 .681 .872
WRIGHT .973 1.108 1.162 1.402
YOUNG 1.235 1.687 1.077 1.273
ZIMMERMAN 1.008 1.055 1.007 1.165[/size:29fdf61432]

Example, a 3 -7 dice roll with a double 1-10, si 11-20, would have a slugging % value of (.167 x.5) x2 + (.167 x .5) =.251

Theriot, at Angels stadium, with ballpark effect rolls factored in, his numbers would be obp-L 1.733 slg-L 1.222 obp-R 1.267 slg-R 1.605

The numbers provide a comparitive value of the batter card results.

I know this is vague, but as you examine the outline, it will make sense.

These are the players I have calculated to date. You may find it useful to plug the numbers into this analysis to ( link below)
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

Interesting, but I think the numbers you used were too high. A 2 should be 1/108 chances not 2.8%, probably 2.8/3 or something. Since there are 36 chances for each of the 3 columns.

The % in each column 1, 2, or 3 add up to %100 representing the comparitive chance of rolling a 2-2.8% or 7--16.7% etc. I think my method is correct, with some rounding margin of error.

The rows 2-12 need to add up to 100%. Not the columns 1 -3. I think I have the math right.

That said, I might be overlooking something. I'll give it another look. Got to go for tonight. If anybody wants deeper detail on this method, I'll flesh out this post tomorrow..........Dennis

--- If I divided by 3, it would be the same difference, Except that instead of camparing a 1.5 value to a 1.2 value, it would be .5 compared to .4

Huh? None of this makes any sense at all. You can't have an OBP over 1.000, for one thing. And it's pretty rare for OBP > SLG, where you have it frequently.

I suspect you're making it more complicated than it is. OB is just:

roll on a 2 = 1 OB "point"
roll on a 3 = 2
4 = 3
5 = 4
6 = 5
7 = 6
8 = 5
9 = 4
10 = 3
11 = 2
12 = 1

Splits, of course, have to be adjusted for; if the 3-7 roll is a SI 1-10 or an out, then that's only 3 OB points (6, times a 50% chance.)

Measure the TB points similarly, except double the points in the table above if a double is involved, triple them if it's a triple, and quadruple them if it's a homer. (Again, take the splits into account; if the 3-7 roll is a DO 1-10 or a SI 11-20, that's going to be an average of 1.5 bases on that roll, times 6 = 9 TB points.)

Now, at this point, it might be easiest just to figure out OBP and Runs Created. OBP = OB points / 108, and if you multiply OBP by TB, that is the simplest form of Runs Created, and a very accurate summary of the total worth of the card.

If you do want to calculate the SLG separately, you can figure out BB and HBP points in the same way as above, and then SLG = TB points / (108 - (BB points + HBP points)).

Hey Dennis,

Take a look at my web site for a way to get all this info and more without having to spent all the time doing the calcs! ;)

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

Cool, thanks Jet. As to the numbers being over 1. I am not calculating the the OBP or slugging % as such, but rather the comparative value of the cards as per the dice roll %. Though the numbers are generally above 1.0, the ratios are valid. Multiply everything by .333 if you want the numbers to look like something more recognizable as OBP or SLG.

Using theriot (link below) as an example, this is the method I use.
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/league/player.html?player_id=1106
[b:c6d6687a78]OBP- (Right handed batter batting against RHP)[/b:c6d6687a78]
1-3 (card result)= .056
1-4= .083
1-5= .111
1-6= .139
1-7= .167
1-8= .139
1-10=.083
2-12=.028
3-5= .111
3-6=.139
3-9= (.111 x.35)=.039
3-10=.083
3-12=(.028 x .6)=.017
total=1.195

This does not factor in Ballpark. Factoring in Ballpark, using AT&T(see link) as an example:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/about/ballpark.html?bp=28

add 1-2 (.028 x .25)=.007
**.25 is 1-5 ballpark effect for HR (5 being 25%, .25 of 1-20 )

1-11= (.056X .65)=.036
**.65 being ballpark SI effect 1-13(13 being 65% .65 of 1-20)
2-10= (.083 x .65)=.054

add these to 1.195, you get 1.292 as the cards OBP value batting against RHP at AT&T.

[b:c6d6687a78]Now for Slugging % (Right handed batter batting against RHP)[/b:c6d6687a78]

1-4--- (.083 x .35) x4 + (.083 X.65) x3= .278
**.35 repesents 1-7split, being 35% of 1-20. The 4 refers to HR TB value.
.65 represents 8- 20 split, being 65% of 1-20. The 3 refers to a triple TB
value.
1-5---(.111 x .55) x 3 + (.111 x .45) x2= .283
1-6-- .139 x 2 = .278
1-7-- (.167 x .65) x 2 + (.167 x .35) = .275
3-5-- =.111
3-6-- =.139
3-9--- (.111 x .35) =.039
3-10-- =.083
3-12-- = (.028 x .6) = .017
added up, you get a slugging value ( not including ballpark rolls) of:
1.503

Now using AT&T as the ballpark, add:
1-2-- (.028 x .25) x 4 = .028
**The .25 represents HR 1-5, 5 being 25% or .25 of 1-20
1-11--- (.056 x .65) = .036
**The .65 represents 1-13 Single, 13 being 65% or .65 of 1-20
2-10-- (.083 x .65) =.054

add to 1.503 you get---1.621 slugging CARD VALUE at AT&T

Anyhow, the calculation are tedious, but they do provide CARD comparison values.......Dennis

And yes Dean, I get what you are saying. I am probably making it more complicated then needed, but I think we are both getting to the same place. Anyhow, consider it my small, complicated, convoluted contribution to the Strat universe[b:c6d6687a78][/b:c6d6687a78][b:c6d6687a78][/b:c6d6687a78]

Dennis,

Looks like you're on the right track, but I agree a little with Dean, there are simpler ways of looking at it, but I guess if you do them all the same, this system would work just fine.

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

Jet,

Thanks. I have not checked out your site in detail, I have just skimmed through it. I'll give it a close look. Even using Dean's method, which is easier, and looks to be just as good of a comparison tool-- it is too much work to do the whole card set. I love to crunch numbers, which is one of the reasons I love baseball and Strat., but I would just as soon make use of somebody else's work.

Thanks for the input,

Dennis