38 of 38 stealing speed a 15? SOM Mistake??

[GlenBrummer]

In ATG III I have Eddie Collins who stole 38 bases and was never caught (0 CS). Yet his steal speed rating after a role of 2-10 is 15.

That means Collins would be caught in theory over 25% of the time.

How can this formula even remotely be an accurate reproduction of Collin's perfect 38-0 steal season?

[Mean Dean]

Caught stealing was not yet an official stat in 1911. So "0 CS" doesn't mean that Collins was never caught (unless you think Wilt Chamberlain blocked 0 shots in his career ;)

I dunno how exactly SOM estimated how often Collins should be caught. (You can write them at som1@ix.netcom.com , if you're curious.) But note that in the deadball era, a basestealer couldn't "pick his spots." If you had a man on 1B, it was going to be very difficult to score him without a steal or hit & run, so he was going to have to go even in relatively low-percentage conditions. Back then, even a 65% success rate would have been outstanding. 100% is just out of the question as something that could have realistically happened.

(Also note that the chance to successfully steal the base is not just the first steal number; it is also affected by the pitcher's hold and catcher's arm ratings.)