Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

My latest 2005 team just started this week. Nine games into the season I'm 6-3 and feeling pretty good about my team. But I was wondering, are there any stats or indicators you guys look at to determine if your team is really good or just on a hot streak? I know a lot of people swear by run differential, but are there other things like that? ERA or WHIP? Slugging percentage? Batting average vs. lefties or righties? Things like that? Just wondering.

Balance. Sometimes even though you're unbalanced in favor of RHP it's still worth it if other teams aren't adjusting or don't have a lot of lefties.

If I'm significantly better vs. LHP unless I'm seeing a ton of them (in a Shea scenario) I'm most likely making tweaks.

Run differential is a good indicator, but I would think that you would have to play a lot more than nine games, against different opponents and stadiums to get a good read on your team. You also have to look at the players on your team. I just started a Wrigley team thats 7-5 so far. The team has an OBP of .296 & a .232 batting avg. and I have Manny, Beltre, Jeter, Damon & Delgado so I can't really pay attention to those stats because over time those numbers will definitely go up. My pitching is 2nd in the league however but Livan Hernandez & Co. are not going to lead the league in pitching when all is said & done (not with Livan as an Ace) If you go the the pythagorean theorem (found in diamonddope.com) you will find that it is an amazing indicator for a w-l record based on run differential, however, you need more than 9 games a cross-sample IMO.

Run differential. :)

run differential

wins :lol:

That early in a season, very hard to take away any meaningful indicators. I usually don't pay much attention until about 40 gms in. At that point I look at run differential, especially runs scored per game, because I usually look at lineups going into the season and do some basic productivity indicators. I know whether I have a lineup that should be scoring 5 rpg, 5.5 rpg, or 6 rpg. Harder to say on pitching because of how HAL runs your pen, what kind of offenses you're facing, etc. I find in SOM offense is much easier to predict.

And, as you'd expect from a Beane disciple, I look at team OPS. Anything approaching .800 is solid, given that I tend towards hitting.

I usually do an over/under count on my roster. How many are performing under what is expected and should improve and how many are overperforming indicating I am getting all I can hope for.
Balance of underperformers and losing : patience
Balance of underperformers and winning: very happy, can only get better
Balance of overperformers and losing: worry, not likely to improve
Balance of overperformers and winning: Keep an eye on it

And of course over and underperformers have to be reflective of ballpark.

One thing I look at early is whether my team is over or under achieving statistically. If I am 6-3 and my offense and/or pitching is underachieving I am happier than if they were doing well, as I know it will get better. I want a good record and to not really be clicking on all cylinders yet, giving my squad room for improvement.