Final Data: Top 25 Starting Pitchers predicted for next year
Posted: Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:20 amHere is the final data on this string I've been running. These are the pitchers I will predict as the Top 25 starters for next year. I base this prediction on each pitcher's raw data (a stat called 'composite ERA'), adjusted for stadium, quality of league, and quality of defense on each pitcher's team. Values were then adjusted to consider endurance (e.g. S7) and star* or no-star. Here are the final results after last night's final game:
1 Zack Greinke S7*
2 Tim Lincecum S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Javier Vazquez S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Josh Johnson S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7
8 Ubaldo Jimenez S7*
9 CC Sabathia S7*
10 Justin Verlander S7*
11 Roy Halladay S7*
12 Josh Beckett S7*
13 Matt Cain S7*
14 Joel Pineiro S7*
15 Jair Jurrjens S7*
16 Adam Wainwright S7*
17 Jake Peavy S7
18 Jon Lester S6*
19 Ted Lilly S6
20 Scott Baker S6*
21 Robinson Tejeda S5
22 Randy Wolf S6*
23 Josh Outman S6
24 Gavin Floyd S7
25 Ryan Rowland-Smith S7
Again, these are just predictions. A couple of factors will alter the order of these pitchers:
A. I based team defensive strength on real-life defensive efficiency stats. HAL assigns defensive ratings very subjectively.
B. I considered stadium data from this year only. HAL considers 3 years of data. Also, I adjusted ERC values based on overall park runs-scored factors, not HR and Single data only.
C. I did not adjust pitchers' values considering success vs. lefties/righties. Some pitchers by chance faced more lefties than average and others faced more righties than average. This will effect final ratings of Strat cards.
Whatever the case, I was just trying to get a picture of what to expect. Others may have lists that go another route with their theories. I always appreciate any comments or discussion.
1 Zack Greinke S7*
2 Tim Lincecum S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Javier Vazquez S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Josh Johnson S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7
8 Ubaldo Jimenez S7*
9 CC Sabathia S7*
10 Justin Verlander S7*
11 Roy Halladay S7*
12 Josh Beckett S7*
13 Matt Cain S7*
14 Joel Pineiro S7*
15 Jair Jurrjens S7*
16 Adam Wainwright S7*
17 Jake Peavy S7
18 Jon Lester S6*
19 Ted Lilly S6
20 Scott Baker S6*
21 Robinson Tejeda S5
22 Randy Wolf S6*
23 Josh Outman S6
24 Gavin Floyd S7
25 Ryan Rowland-Smith S7
Again, these are just predictions. A couple of factors will alter the order of these pitchers:
A. I based team defensive strength on real-life defensive efficiency stats. HAL assigns defensive ratings very subjectively.
B. I considered stadium data from this year only. HAL considers 3 years of data. Also, I adjusted ERC values based on overall park runs-scored factors, not HR and Single data only.
C. I did not adjust pitchers' values considering success vs. lefties/righties. Some pitchers by chance faced more lefties than average and others faced more righties than average. This will effect final ratings of Strat cards.
Whatever the case, I was just trying to get a picture of what to expect. Others may have lists that go another route with their theories. I always appreciate any comments or discussion.