"Doing the Math" to Set Your Lineups

[bleacher_creature]

If OB + SLG is a good measurement of offensive ability, and TB chances from the ratings book/disk are substituted for SLG, then this seems like an awesome formula for evaluating how to set lineups for a series.

The formula would be:

1. Add opposing starter OB + TB (vs-L, & vs-R).
2. Add OB + TB for each player on roster (vs-L & vs-R).
3. Add pitcher number & player number together.

Example:

Batter = S. Rolen.
Opp Starter = D. Willis

Willis is 30.1 (OB) + 39.2 (TB) = 69.3.
Rolen is 69.2 (OB) + 51.7 (TB) = 120.9

69.3
+120.9
--------
190.2

This would be an ideal number of course. You can see the high probability that Rolen will rake upon Willis.

Anyone would know that without this calculation, but I caught myself in some lineup mistakes using this formula. I was batting A. Dunn too high vs lefties for example, assuming he's hit some HRs in the MOTO (middle of the order). He DID, but batted .172 in while doing so (teams in my league threw lefty after lefty at me, prompting me to beef up my team vs LHPs).

Here is my excel chart for one game in a series. The number is the above formula per player. The total includes the opp. pitchers OB + TB.

[code:1:f719892d1e]GM3
inj
150.8
141.4
125.5
117.2
152.2
142.3
142.6
128.7
inj
138.8
104.3
112.6
89.5[/code:1:f719892d1e]

Other factors of course to be considered are:

1. Speed/OB at top of the order.
2. DP sensitive spots in order.
3. Clutch.
4. HR and ballpark numbers/ratings.

Q1. Does this make sense?

Q2. Have I reached a state of total and complete "Strat Madness"? :?

[geekor]

Ask and you shall receive... though I hope you're good at math!

Original Thread at the old forums: http://forums.sportingnews.com/groupee/forums/a/tpc/f/79960676/m/4756008622/r/6936091722#6936091722

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:bd2e657f7f="geekor"]Ask and you shall receive... though I hope you're good at math!

Original Thread at the old forums: http://forums.sportingnews.com/groupee/forums/a/tpc/f/79960676/m/4756008622/r/6936091722#6936091722[/quote:bd2e657f7f]

Wow. I didn't realize I was being so simple minded. Thanks a lot geekor. :shock:

[bleacher_creature]

What a fantastic discussion. I'll have to read more to hopefully gain more insight.

At the same time, don't you think that traditional "Mike Scoscia type methods" of run production are the way to go. Such as:

1 OBP/Speed
2 Ability to move runner/some speed/OBP
3 Best hitter period vsL or vsR (OPS for lack of better number)
4 OBP/HRs or SLG
5 BA/SLG/Clutch 1
6 BA/SLG/Clutch 2
7 BA/SLG/Clutch 3
8 Weakest hitter?
9 OBP/Speed

I recently dropped Ortiz for Gload (plus some other players), because I felt that I needed someone to hit for average in the 5 or 6 hole. Ortiz was a BB or an HR pretty much. Plus, Ortiz kept getting punished by hard lefties. Gload has like 28 RBI's in less than a quarter season of at bats.

One point is that I think I gave TOO MUCH weight to walks, and not enough to BA and TB.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I guess we should have this thread on these boards before it get erased.

[bomp helium]

A non-techie posits the following question to our gearhead community: how does one access the BOX SCORES of specific (or any) years to play around with various sabermetric formulas?...

Personally, I'm wondering if stat formulas have become so abstract and complex that they actually might not accurately reflect the game itself...I am looking (and always have been) for a simple set of stats that define the game...

We are not really measuring the PLAYERS with stats (nor should we be) but rather THE GAME ITSELF...the purpose of sabermetrics (IMO) is to quantify the game of baseball and therefore determine what combination of skill sets will best influence a team's success...

after years of observation, thought and frustration, I have arrived at two primary stats that I feel might truly define the game of baseball, and therefore predict how various skill sets will contribute to a team's success. My system involves very simple stats which are not a combination of other stats (x+y+z) but rather stand alone. The problem is they have never been collected in this manner. And of course I need to test my theories against past performances. But i wonder where I can get access to the raw numbers (the box scores)?...and it would especially nice to be able to rather quickly collect the raw data, so it would seem a software program would be helpful...

So I would like to access a few years of box scores to compile the raw data...only then can I see if my theories hold any water at all...and if they do, then I can talk about it on this honorable and intelligent forum...and if they don't hold water, then I can zip my trap and not make a fool o' myself...

any suggestions?...are box scores available and accessible anywhere online or on disk?...have you ther stat analysts out there figured out a way to accumulate raw numbers quickly?...

does this question even make any sense?...

helium

[MARCPELLETIER]

helium56,

boxscores are being erased as strat gets old. My old leagues of 2005 have their boxscores erased.

The best way to have boxscores is to get a recent or current league, for example, group_id=7363, and have a look at all games by replacing the last digits from any number between 1 and 972 in the following link:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/league/boxscore.html?group_id=7363&g_id=1

[MARCPELLETIER]

BTW, if you want simple stat, take OPS (on-base plus slugging). But consider OPS with defense in mind.

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:6837b42241="marcus wilby"]BTW, if you want simple stat, take OPS (on-base plus slugging). But consider OPS with defense in mind.[/quote:6837b42241]

MW: do you think OB + TB vs L or R is avalid semi valid-measurement for lineup construction in a particular series (taking into account the opposisition's pitchers)?

[The Biomechanical Man]

I guess the question is, if On-Base + Slugging is a decent measurement of a player's offensive value in real baseball, can we use the "OB" + the "TB" on the cards (from the ratings disk or book) as a measurement for the offensive value of a player in this game?

My answer to that question would be YES - [u:febed2ebf4]assuming[/u:febed2ebf4] that ballpark singles and homeruns on the card are included.