Pierre

[1crazycanuk]

I'm finding that even if I win games I'm still getting some runs scored on me in the last few innings. Would it be wise to put in a better defensive centre field near the end of games? I don't know, that's why I'm asking. But Pierre doesn't have any errors.

[visick]

The debate goes on and on about Pierre. I like his card and usually use him as my DH. I like my CF to have at least a neutral arm, but prefer a - arm.

If you've got a backup CF, that's a 2 defensively with a negative arm, try him as a late inning replacement. See if the runs scored changes...

[1crazycanuk]

Ok thanks. Yeah the debate will never end eh? I'd like to use him as my DH but Manny is my DH. I have a 3 with a -3 arm that could replace Pierre at times. Escobar. I like him...he has done well with me on teams so I always go for him as my backup OF.

[visick]

The thing is now you are replacing a 2 with a 3. You can try it by all means, but you may not notice any difference.

Pierre can get to a few more balls than Escobar, but Escobar has the better arm.

Personally I would rather have Pierre in the game, rather than a 3 in CF.

Better choices to see if this mini experiment works out would be:

Glanville
Matos
Krynzel
or Terrero

[1crazycanuk]

Ok that makes sense. My players are too opposite. Got a hitter with better range but a crap arm...and a guy with less range but a gun for an arm. Argh...lol

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:ba47569c2c="1crazycanuk"]Ok thanks. Yeah the debate will never end eh? I'd like to use him as my DH but Manny is my DH. I have a 3 with a -3 arm that could replace Pierre at times. Escobar. I like him...he has done well with me on teams so I always go for him as my backup OF.[/quote:ba47569c2c]

I would play Manny in left before I would play a +2 or +3 in CF. Take a look at the [url=http://forums-beta.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=58354]CF thread[/url] where we pretty much prove that a minus arm, low e's, and a "3" rating would be better than playing a weak armed "2" in CF.

[milezd]

I am sorry, but I don't see how that thread shows that an arm rating effects the game at all.

in my opinion replacing pierre in late innings with a guy with LESS range is a huge mistake, CF is one of the positions that has the greater risk of extra bases due to poor range the more you go up in range rating, where as the arm rating [b:d9c178f7f1]BARELY EFFECTS THE GAME AT ALL[/b:d9c178f7f1]

I am not a numbers whiz but I can say this, anyone can feel free to prove me wrong

what does the arm rating affect? it affects runners advancing extra bases on open ended hits, for this to occur you would have to have the following conditions

less than 2 outs
a runner on 1st when the result is [b:d9c178f7f1]DOUBLE[/b:d9c178f7f1]
a runner on 2nd when the result is [b:d9c178f7f1]SINGLE[/b:d9c178f7f1]
a runner on 3rd when the result is [b:d9c178f7f1]fly()B?[/b:d9c178f7f1]

I also found an article awhile back that talked about the frequency of runners being on base in MLB, I am assuming it can be applied here as well:

the frequency of runner situations in baseball
http://mysite.verizon.net/brak2.0/rbipaper.htm

in the article it states when someone comes to bat there are:

[quote:d9c178f7f1]
No runners on base:55.1%
1 runner on base: 30.3%
2 runners on base: 12.37%
3 runners on base: 2.18%

For specific situations:
Runner on first base: 17.55%
Runners on first and second: 6.78%
Runners on first and third: 3.16%
Bases loaded: 2.18%
Runner on second base: 9.56%
Runners on second and third: 2.43%
Runner on third base: 3.24%
[/quote:d9c178f7f1]

so, given these two pieces of evidence, how often do you think it happens that a player gets a DOUBLE, SINGLE, or fly()B? when some is on base to take advantage of that?

AND, I would also like to add that when the arm does come into play it's not like it is just giving the player the base, the arm rating is adding 2-4 points to their speed, so, with pierre in CF for example:

the average runner speed is 1-12 (thank you excel!) so the average runners scoring chance would go from 60% to 75%.

given the extreme chance of this situation to occur and given the very modest increase in scoring ability the arm rating adds, I feel it has [b:d9c178f7f1]little to no impact what so ever[/b:d9c178f7f1]

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:547d04afc2]the average runner speed is 1-12 (thank you excel!) so the average runners scoring chance would go from 60% to 75%[/quote:547d04afc2]

No. With 2 outs (+2) , man on 2nd (presumably not being held, +1) , the chances of an average runner to score with Pierre in cf (+3) goes from 60% to 90% (from 1-12 to 1-18 ). At 90%, I doubt that there is even a throw at the plate.

Compare this to AJones, who goes from 1-12 to 1-11. The chances to get an out is 55%, and goes as low as 53% or 50% if your catcher is either c-2 or c-1. Here, 1 out of 2 will get retired. Perhaps the owner will select to hold on 3rd base, in which case 0% of runs will score, unless there is another hit.

[1crazycanuk]

I'd like to play Manny in LF but I have Ford playing there. I looked at some chart about errors and runs per game, etc. for each position and range rating. It's better to DH Manny than to play him in LF.

[milezd]

[quote:6d646e723a="marcus wilby"][quote:6d646e723a]the average runner speed is 1-12 (thank you excel!) so the average runners scoring chance would go from 60% to 75%[/quote:6d646e723a]

No. With 2 outs (+2) , man on 2nd (presumably not being held, +1) , the chances of an average runner to score with Pierre in cf (+3) goes from 60% to 90% (from 1-12 to 1-18 ). At 90%, I doubt that there is even a throw at the plate.

Compare this to AJones, who goes from 1-12 to 1-11. The chances to get an out is 55%, and goes as low as 53% or 50% if your catcher is either c-2 or c-1. Here, 1 out of 2 will get retired. Perhaps the owner will select to hold on 3rd base, in which case 0% of runs will score, unless there is another hit.[/quote:6d646e723a]

yes, I know that, but it's still a net +3 from pierre to the next guy, the chance for it to happen is still very slim, AND not every centerfield is adept at throwing out runners as jones

anyway, I would gladly take the pierres and damons of the game and play them at center without any thought, and if you want to substitute a range 3 CF when you play against me, please do, that much more of a chance for me to score