Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

Does anyone remember the discussion on statistical controls, meaning if someone was have an outstanding year something would turn on to limit their production for the rest of the year?

I can't remeber the outcome for that discussion.

The reason I am asking is because Doumit (2008) got 87 RBIs at the half-way point, and now after game 129 has 91. I am guessing I should have dropped him (I think he had a 1000 OPS at the time) and came out ahead.

Does anyone remember if we proved it? Or what the outcome was?

I think Bernie posted a couple of years ago that those controls ("normalization") were permanently turned off. Not aware of any change announced since then.

There are not statistical controls here at TSN. I am almost positive about that. If I am wrong, Bernie or someone correct me please. But unless they have changed something recently, there are not limits or controls on any stats or numbers.

it seems the only controls are that probability itself is unpredicatable.

[quote:1edd687c1d="cabobob"]I think Bernie posted a couple of years ago that those controls ("normalization") were permanently turned off. Not aware of any change announced since then.[/quote:1edd687c1d]

Thiis is correct. TSN used to use Normalization so guys pace would slow down. If I remeber correctly they weren't even fully aware it existed and it was tested by bernie and he discovered it in the code and then turned it off.

I thought they were still used. say with Eck that he really never walked anyone so it would turn a walk into a single or something like that.

[quote:47feab53bd="ggrover15"]I thought they were still used. say with Eck that he really never walked anyone so it would turn a walk into a single or something like that.[/quote:47feab53bd]

This. I forgot who it was who talked Bernie into buying all 12 teams and playing by himself, but it proved that normizilation was on. It was turned off for HR's.

But the norimlization for guys is still on, just not for HR/RBI things. But that part where a guy like Maddux who walked 5 guys all season, could never be even close to duplicated without the other form of normilization which is still turned on if I remember correctly.

It shouldn't effect the RBI totals however.

Could be just luck or something. First half, 87 RBIs 1000 OPS, 3rd quarter 4 RBIs 400 OPS or so...

These kind of controls would annoy me. Would it go the OTHER way too? If Pujols ONLY had 10 Hrs at the halfway point, would he be "normalized" back up to a 50 HR pace? Why play the game at all, if that is case??

I love the probability factor being the only thing that really applies (of course, the impact of Fatigue rating on pitchers is kind of a "statistical control," but that I can accept.)

SOM does have certain rules superadvanced rules where results may be modified. However, these modifications aren't based on previous performance in the league. A pitcher with extremely few walks in real life might have a result converted to something else. However, it wouldn't be converted because he already had too many walks in the simulated season.

So, Doumit's dropoff in performance is not the result of any normalization rule.