Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

As a manager who does look at the Statistics in my leagues as the seasons progress, it strikes me that it really can be pretty fruitless in a way.

Let's take someone like Ryan Zimmerman.

If his Home Park is Petco, here are his slash lines batting vs. RHP.

272/385/516/902 with 5.74 HR chances

But with Cellular as his home park, vs. RHP

324/438/703/1.141 with 10.1 HR chances.

Hmm.

While this will effect his numbers, my bet is that at Petco, he will win just as many ballgames with his hitting as he would at the other park because ballparks effect players evenly, BUT, [i:e629ef170c]when you look at individual stats and leaders, it is very hard to tell just how well the player is performing[/i:e629ef170c].

He may be leading your team with a 280 average, and be YOUR MVP, but how can you tell except by instinct?

My question -- and an interesting challenge to the more mathematically gifted -- [i:e629ef170c]is there anyway to figure out a 'field leveling' formula for each ballpark? [/i:e629ef170c]Starting with, let's say 10/10/10/10 as the "norm," what would a 300 batting average and 20 HRs be at a 1/1/15/15 ballpark, or a 5/5/3/3 ballpark?

Yes, I know that for ATG, Diamond Dope has their great lineup evaluator for different parks, and for "NO BALLPARK EFFECTS" but minus that, is there a way to apply this to Excel to give an idea of just how each team's players are REALLY doing when adjusted for the ballpark.

Thanks for your wisdom.

Artie

First, you would have to use some units. If you use RC+, then you would need to use RC+ units for the field adjustments.

Second, you would have to decide whether you go with average values for games played on the road, of if you would take the extra effort to calculate precisely the stadium ratings in all 162 games.

If you go with the average, then you would assume:
81 games played at home
81 games played at 1-9 for singles and 1-8 for homeruns.

In RC+, singles are worth 0.47 RC, homeruns are worth 1.42 RC, and outs are worth -0.1 RC. So the relative of getting a single or a hr instead of an out are 0.57 and 1.52 respectively.

So, taking Longoria in Petco (1 for singles, 1-3 for homeruns), you could estimate that the effective stadium ratings over a season for Longoria were: (1+9)/2= 5 for singles, and (3+8)/2=5.5 for homeruns.

You also need to estimate the average BP homeruns found on the pitchers card. Usually, in a 80M league, I estimate at 1.8 BP homeruns the pitching side, making 9.8 BP for Longeria vs rhp. I assume that there are overall 10 rolls of singles (5 on the offense card, 5 on the pitcher card).

You would then estimate the impact of RC for each individual roll, and multiply this effect by the actual playing time.

So, you would have to adjust Longoria RC with the following formula:
= impact on each individual roll (for singles and for hr) * actual playing time
=[(5-9)/20 * 10/216 * 0.57 + (5.5-8)/20 * 9.8/216 * 1.52 ] * actual PAs
=[-0.005277 RC - 0.0086 RC] * X PAs
= -9.72 RC (assuming 700 PAs)

Thanks Luckyman. . . You're a better man than I am with the numbers, that's for sure.

I will try to crunch these and see if I have any success (or questions) with the issue at hand.

Hope you don't mind me coming back to you on some of the numbers in that equation and how you arrived on them.

Thanks again,

Artie