Does it matter?

[tony best]

I basically like aggressive base running and a lot of bunting. I dont like to steal or do intentinal walks. Does it matter? Should we just set it at normal and let HAL do his thing? Adjust to each team?

What do the good managers do?

[durantjerry]

My thoughts:
[b:4977d76a78]Intentional Walks[/b:4977d76a78]-I think it matters. I usually go very conservative, as I don't want many of them. However, if I'm in an unbalanced park, I put it up to normal because IMO you really want to increase the number of hitters put in an unfavorable position. I don't trust HAL enough to go aggressive or more.
[b:4977d76a78]H & R[/b:4977d76a78]-I have used this feature a lot over the years and found it's tough to consistently get a good percentage when the setting is any higher than conservative with the best guys selected to H & R more. I have not been satisfied with the results on the "normal" setting" when I have used it. I have had teams use the H & R successfully, but they are more or less specialized situations in a park like Fenway of previous years.
[b:4977d76a78]Bunting[/b:4977d76a78]-I really have rarely if ever gone more than very conservative on bunting. If it's comparable to hit and run, you really want to pick and choose who is going to be bunting more when set any higher than conservative, which you should be able to accomplish.
[b:4977d76a78]Stealing[/b:4977d76a78]-I usually go conservative or less, even with fast teams, unless they are very fast and stealing is essential to scoring, which it usually is not. I am looking for about an 80% or better success rate, with 75% being OK. I almost always can achieve this with the conservative or very conservative and steal more settings. You probably won't be stealing more than a maximum of one base per game, and more likely will be under 100. That being said, I have stolen large number of bases(300-500) running pretty wild on the agressive and very aggressive settings and been in the 70%-75% success range.
[b:4977d76a78]Baserunning[/b:4977d76a78]-what scares me about base running, is there really is no way to know how it's working and I fear the "aggressive" and "very aggressive" settings are comparable to the equivelant steal settings, which are pretty aggressive. There was a discussion about this a while back, and it was theorized by Luckyman that the base running settings were not the same as the steal settings with regards to the aggressiveness level, but I don't think anyone really knows. If the baserunning settings are the same as the steal settings, I would almost never use aggressive baserunning unless my team as a whole could fly, again because the comparable steal settings are too aggressive for the average team to achieve a high percentage of success if they were to be applied to baserunning IMO. Also, you can not select who you want to be running more aggressively, such as with the stealing, H & R and bunting.
1)A poster many years ago said that as you increase the settings, you are not increasing the likelihood of success, that is stealing(or anything else) more in more favorable situations, you are just stealing(or anything else) more in general. I want my team to do whatever it is more in more favorable situtions, not just more in any situation. That is why I tend to go very conservative up to maybe normal(at most)selecting the guys to go "more" or "less" where apllicable. I'm hoping a less aggressive setting with selective individual aggressiveness will result in a greater percentage of success. Again, with regards to baserunning, the fact that you can't be selectively aggressive is a problem for me with regards the the more aggressive settings.

[apolivka]

I tend to look at the base running setting as a measure of how precious a single run is to my team. Basically it controls what HAL does when given the opportunity to score from 2nd on a single or go from 1st to 3rd on a single. HAL appears (to me) to do this in an equal opportunity matter (i.e. he does not increase his "aggressiveness" in the bottom of the 9th or anything.)

So, if you are playing with a potent offense in a HR park, you basically _never_ want to make an out at 3rd base or at the plate because the next guy very well might drive him in anyway--hopefully with a 3 run homer. I would normally go "very conservative" on such teams because taking a risk to advance a runner probably won't pay off in the long run.

However, if you are playing a singles hitting team in a pitcher's park, that individual run is worth a LOT more, and taking a risk on an extra base, or (especially) on a close play at the plate is probably worth it in the long run. I might go "very aggressive" if I was, say, playing such a team at Petco, but maybe tune it back a bit in more hitting friendly away games.

So, I really don't think it has all that much to do with team speed or anything, it's more a function of the risk/reward you are willing to take to try to advance those extra bases. In a neutral park with a team office near the middle of the league, normal is probably the way to go.

[durantjerry]

[quote:c60ecff600]I might go "very aggressive" if I was, say, playing such a team at Petco.[/quote:c60ecff600]
I don't neccessarily think this is bad, but we don't even really know what "very aggressive" is with regards to base running. We kind of know what it is with regards to stealing, and as anyone who has used this setting when stealing knows, it is VERY agressive. Way beyond what you would normally use and pretty much reserved for the teams that were drafted with the intention of stealing bases. It would be scary if "very aggressive" in base running was the same as "very aggressive" in stealing. I think it would be well beyond what you would want to use for any team if the stealing and base running settings are comparable.

[apolivka]

It's certainly much easier to keep track to stealing. You can, however, pretty easily follow the box scores and see how often you get guys nailed at 3b and home on singles. If it happens too often, you can dial it back, but it's obviously quite subjective.

For what happens when you go "very aggressive" in stealing, here is my current '99 steals team. A running and gunning squad in the height of the steroids era:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=278472

Currently with 303 steals in 421 attempts for a 72% clip which is pretty decent, although I was hoping for about 75%. Stealing is "very aggressive" every game, and I have 5 of the 9 starters set to "steal more". Ironically, I have base running set to "normal" since it's a pretty high powered offense and I don't like getting nailed at the plate when it's a pretty good scoring team to begin with. Down side of "very aggressive"-- getting nailed at the plate trying to steal home. Check out this game--my 3rd base coach ordered three different players to attempt to steal home. Unsurprisingly, none were successful:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=127109&g_id=498

First, Womack was gunned down in the 1st inning. Then, with the bases loaded and 2 out in the 3rd, Castillo breaks for home, then makes the final out at the plate. Then in the 8th an incredulous Raoul Mondesi was ordered to swipe home, and again, he was out easily. I think it was my worst night stealing ever with 6 swipes and 7 caught stealing. I can't complain much, however, because I actually won the game!

[durantjerry]

I think your above post kind of makes my point. As I said with my fast teams(300+ SB's) set on "very aggressive", I have found myself in the 70%-75% success rate with similar crazy stealing exploits as you describe above. If you are at 72%, you are already pretty close to the point that the moneyball guys say the cost of stealing outweighs the benefits and that is with the fastest teams you can put together. As the team gets slower, your steal success rate and the number of stolen bases will fall and I think that only the fastest teams will get a benefit with stealing at that setting. I think the same thing applies to base running and that the base running rating of your players does matter because as with stealing, as your team gets slower, your success rate and extra bases taken will decline below the point where it is beneficial to try for the extra base. The problems IMO are there is no stat to show how you are doing, unlike with the H & R, bunting or stealing and there is no way to be selectively aggressive as with the previous mentioned H & R, bunting and stealing. In nine or so years I've never read a post by anyone that could say they knew what the heck went on with base running. I guess after seeing what results from the aggressive steal settings, my choice is to err on the side of caution with regards to base running.

[brow66]

My experience with base stealing is whenever I have set good base stealers to 'steal more' they have poor percentages. When left unchecked, they have pretty good percentages but, of course, run a lttle less. I much prefer the higher percentages.

Apolivka's break down is solid.

One could always check whatever theory they use in the 2007 league that has 3 more spots left....:)

[tony best]

Jerry
Thank you for your in depth analysis! :D