Pythagorean record

[geekor]

I remember when the formula was first posted, I ran it for all of my teams. My overall record was much worse than it should be.

I'm not going to do it now for all my teams, but looking at my 2011 bunch of teams, every single one, but one, has a worse record than it should. Not a coincidence, almost all of them have a losing 1 run game record.

My teams have pretty much always been under what they should (according to that). Pretty much pick a team, and it's doing worse than it should.

So what's my problems? I mean even my winning teams are under where they should be. I don't typically play in bomber parks either, where you can get a ton of runs in blowouts to skew it. Almost all of my teams are in neutral to pitching parks.

I'll give some examples:

This team, albeit winning, is 6 games under where they should be, 18-19 in 1 run games:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=378054

This team (5 1/2 teams theme) is 7 games under where they should be, 15-22 in 1 run games:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=378400

I can go on and on, but I know at least 80% of ALL my teams have a worse record when using the Pythagorean to estimate it's wins/losses. Am I just that bad?

[blue turtle]

I have a +3 in my favor with a 71-82 team, so whoop de doo.

A first place team that is -6 at 68-64.

A first place that is -4 at 63-48

A +1 with a fourth place team of 29-40

A +1 with a 3rd place team at 12-15.

My conclusion is, the teams fall to the middle. I take little solace I do a better job with bad teams and that I drag down the winners...

[tony best]

What is the pythagorean record and waht does it puport to show?

[Risden]

[quote:d1c0a6dbd4="tonysbest"]What is the pythagorean record and waht does it puport to show?[/quote:d1c0a6dbd4]

This link gives a rather detailed explanation...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

[blue turtle]

I used the Diamonddope.com site to do my calculations.

[visick]

My squads...

[u:ac32653045]Pythons (geekor's early pre-card)[/u:ac32653045]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=379034

- run diff, should be 2 games [b:ac32653045]worse[/b:ac32653045] according to pythag, 24-17 in 1 run games


[u:ac32653045]Good Pick at the Time (pre-card 1)[/u:ac32653045]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=379084

+ run diff, should be 3 games [b:ac32653045]better[/b:ac32653045] according to pythag, 19-13 in 1 run games


[u:ac32653045]Fu-Ko-DoYOU (pre-card 2)[/u:ac32653045]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=379257

+ run diff (+1), [b:ac32653045]same[/b:ac32653045] record with pythag, 19-19 in 1 run games


[u:ac32653045]Sliders (Voyage league)[/u:ac32653045]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=379390

- run diff, should be 1 game [b:ac32653045]worse[/b:ac32653045] according to pythag, 18-20 in 1 run games



I don't have a point to this posting. I still hate this set... :lol: :lol:

visick

[geekor]

My problem is this is a constant with me, thru ALL sets. 2002, 2003, etc etc.

no matter what set, my teams are almost always doing worse than they should. Even the teams that win and have good 1 run records (i.e. lucky) are still usually 1-2 games under.

Actually my teams that are horrible are the ones closest to their Pythagorean record. :roll:

I thought maybe someone would have some insight, someone who can usually hit their Pythagorean record or better might shed some light.

[blue turtle]

I guess it is just you then. :P

[hallerose]

I think for any one season it is largely luck and random. Over the long haul, any consistent variation probably comes down mostly to 1-run and close/extra inning games. It probably helps to have a good deep bullpen, maybe a little bit of clutch hitting, I'm not sure 1-run strategy (e.g., sac. bunting) really works -- my preferred 1-run strategy is the solo home run. This record can also be throw off by just a couple blow out games (e.g., 20-1) over the course of the season -- your run differential will think that should be 4 losses. I find it much better to just focus on run differential -- if you score a lot more runs than you give up your record should be fine in the end, even if you underperform your expected record by a couple games.

[durantjerry]

[quote:7d94b3a957]Not a coincidence, almost all of them have a losing 1 run game record. [/quote:7d94b3a957]
I have found this to be probably the biggest factor in being below or above where you should be and this can usually be traced back to your bullpen having a bad year with regards to save % and/or w-l record. This is fairly obvious with regards to your first team posted and to a lesser extent with the second team.