Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

It's just one of those weeks where the rolls aren't going my way...

Yeah I know....waaaaaaaa, waaaaaaaaaa!

Closer Brad Lidge comes into the 8th inning with a 1 run lead, care of a fine pitching performance by Peavy....gets two easy outs and then gives up consecutive doubles to plate the tying run.
Instead of getting a third out and stranding him there, Lidge uncorks two WILD PITCHES IN A ROW (a 1/400 chance even with Lidge's 20 WP rating if I'm not mistaken) and allows the go ahead run.
For good measure he pitches in the ninth having blown his 4th save for the year...plunks a batter and uncorks YES FOLKS a THIRD WILD PITCH!!!!

I wish HAL had some setting where you can take him to the optometrist and get him some Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn specs...cuz this dude Lidge looks to be throwing with his eyes closed.

[url]http://members.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/league/boxscore.html?group_id=1084&g_id=305[/url]

My team sucks enough as it is I don't need 1/400 chance castasrophes happening once a week to keep me down.

Okay...I feel better, the sob sister show is over thanks for coming....

The 20 means it's a guaranteed Wild Pitch if that roll comes up. But the odds of that roll happening twice in a row are pretty high.

Oh yeah I understand the 20 is automatic. But two in a row...I think in general you have a 1 on a d20 just to trigger a WP chance...so twice in a row is (1/20)*(1/20) = 1/400. Sigh...I think I should drop Mitch Williams....I mean Brad Lidge....he makes my brain all hurty.

Actually it's a C(x) that triggers it. That's a 1 in 70 chance (3 combinations of a possible 210). Once you hit that it's almost guaranteed since you had Lecroy in the game coupled with Lidge.

But twice in a row is basically 70x70 or 1 in 4900. (if I remember my stats class)

Imagine how we real Astros fan feel about Lidge in real life with his 3 or 4 blown saves this year. Though I've never seen throw a wild pitch ever I don't think, much less three in two innings of work. Usually he only pitches in one inning anyway.