by sschu » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:02 am
I look at three things about my teams to see if I did a good job putting them together.
1. Win % = RS **1.83 / (RS ** 1.83 + RA ** 1.83)
This is the Bill James luck factor, based upon this you should have 28 wins.
2. RS = OBP * SLG * ABs. I looked at dozens of teams, normally this number is aboput 5% higher than actuals. Right now you are at 263 RS, the numbers say you should have 248 RS, so you have good effeciency, that might not keep up.
3. Over/under performance
Your pitching staff is WAY over performing, that probably will not hold.
Of your hitters, Ripper is off slightly, Teddy's BA is a bit low, but his OBP is very high. It seems you are over performing at just about every position.
Bottom line, I hope you continue to win, and you might, but would not be surprised if the ERA goes up and the win % is closer to 500 by season end.
I suggest printing your stats page out weekly and looking at it for changes over time, trends will emerge.
Best of luck, sschu