Speaker's 1912 card worth the extra $3.15m?

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:49c4efcb62="coyote303"]If I understand your sample, you are comparing (one) apple to (two) apples! I agree that a single that advances a base runner to third is better than simply stealing second base. However, you have two hitters reaching base versus one, so it's not a fair comparison.

I could argue they are the same if you have two singles:

batter singles and steals
next batter singles; one base advance only

Batter singles
next batter singles and runner takes third

In both cases, you have runners at first and third.

You could further argue that the stolen base is better because it eliminated the chance of grounding into a double play.[/quote:49c4efcb62]

The point of the thought experiment is to show that the value of taking the extra base is a little more complicated than the value of a SB, and not really analogous, as it is apples to oranges.

What's funny is that, at least to 1900, and possibly later, going first to third on a single was considered a SB. That's why we don't really consider the base stealing exploits of the pre-1900 guys, as it's hard to tease out just what was a modern SB.