A small vent

Postby Valen » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:14 pm

[quote:c4686a58e8]Walks have no bearing on average (which I'm sure you know).[/quote:c4686a58e8]
But yes they do. Follow me close. There are 108 chances on each card per side (36 per column) The represent plate appearances. Let's imagine that you had 216 plate appearances with exactly half falling on the hitters card which statistically is what should happen. Each would get their share of hits according to what is on the card. Leslie might have more hits on his card and thus get more total hits in those 216 plate appearances. But the BA for Ted could be higher because each of those walks on his card does not count as an atbat and thus reduce the total number of atbats he has.

So for example if Leslie had 8 walks out of his 108 chances and 30 hits his average would be .300. 108 PA - 8 BB = 100 AB. 30/100 = .300 Now say Ted had 28 BB and 25 hits. That would be 108-28=80 AB. His BA would be 25/80 = .312.

You see, fewer hits but higher BA.

Now that does not mean your theory of compensation could not be true. I am only dealing with the specific statement that walks on a card do not impact BA.
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:31 pm

and another way of looking at it...... each of Teds slots that are a walk is an OUT on Leslie's card.....thus lowering Leslie's BA... Ted has 39 walks on right Leslie 4........so thats 35 more outs for Leslie that you are not putting into your equation
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:39 pm

Williams vs R
39 - walks
11.75 - singles
7.25 - Doubles
1.8 - Triples
7.4 - HR's
40.8 outs

39+11.75+7.25+1.8+7.4+40.8=108

Leslie
4 - walks
23.8 singles
4.2 - doubles
1.5 - triples
.6 - HR's
73.9 - outs

4+23.8+4.2+1.5+.6+73.9=108
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:48 pm

your BA theory doesn't hold water either..... try figuring BA with these numbers

Ted has 28.2 hits in 69 AB's the other 39 are walks
Leslie has 30.1 hits in 104 AB's....the other 4 are walks

thats .409 to .289 ..... a slight difference
Last edited by Rob55 on Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:49 pm

thats ok gensher..... learning to read the cards is important and its very easy to look at them from the wrong direction....or in the wrong light.
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:51 pm

those above figures are ignoring ball park effects AND clutch - DP's
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Postby Rob55 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:54 pm

[quote:0bf22adb09] the card worries more about Ted's walks more so than his hits[/quote:0bf22adb09]

the walks are what make Ted less desirable the some of the other high priced guys..... when you spend that kind of $ ...you want RBI's ..... alot of his value is OBP....and you need other guys to drive HIM in..... Charlie likes him as a lead of guy becasue of the awesome OBP
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