Poll-One That Got Away ?

[lafayette1]

How many of you have been up 3-1 in The Finals and LOST the series? Just happened to me the other night-WOW.

[nevdully's]

Been on both sides of that situation way more than I'd ever thought.

[The Last Druid]

Where's the poll?

This happens all the time. It probably shouldn't but it does. All the time.

[Quincy Wilson]

It has happened to me over and over and over and over and over,etc.

[PJ Axelsson]

Grand champion for that title, right here. Look no further.

[Proverbial Psalms]

A reminder... the probability math shows it would be 1 in every 8 times or about 12.5%

Assumes the teams are evenly matched
Makes no assertion on home advantage

Seems the anecdotal feedback is that it occurs more than 12.5%...

I know back in ATG3/4 or so, I researched about several hundred leagues of playoff results... for distribution, outcomes of best-record teams, etc., but I can't recall specifically if anything was done to validate expected #'s on 3-1 series. Hmmmm :?

[nevdully's]

12.5 seems high compared to real life numbers no?

[Proverbial Psalms]

One more thing...

If I think thru this, and did the math right (big assumptions)...

Then after 4 games of a 7 game series...
50.0% should be 3-1 (one team or the other up 3-1)
37.5% should be 2-2 (all tied)
12.5% should be 4-0 (sweeps)

So from above post 12.5% of these 50% of all series should (a) start 3-1, and then (b) have the team behind 3-1 aactually win... so, 1 in every 16 series that starts (or 6.25%) should be covered. Is this right?

[Proverbial Psalms]

[quote:d2ed808c51="nevdully's"]12.5 seems high compared to real life numbers no?[/quote:d2ed808c51]
Agree totally... in real life the extra pressure on the teams down 3-1, and conversely the high confidence with the teams ahead 3-1 would seemingly make it harder to pull off the comeback.

Of course in an online engine math rules more than human reality, which I get it, is really the point you are making :wink:

[nevdully's]

Does anyone know real life numbers of comebacks when down 3-1?

BTW Bill while I'm happy to hear statistically it's much more the norm than I ever thought (and I'm not cursed) it goes against this "momentum" feature that I'm convinced is in the game...unless of course it's turned off in the playoffs....I'm just sayin.