The problem with I-Rod

[PotKettleBlack]

(aside from his complete inability to take a walk)

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=146212&g_id=1

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=146212&g_id=7

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=146212&g_id=13

3 games against a team featuring:
Collins, Cobb, Duffy, Rogan, Honus, Delahanty, and McGraw
in their own park (Royals 78)

[b:0df8327b90]1 attempted steal. [/b:0df8327b90]

While I like keeping the ducks in place on the pond, I like it even better when they run and fail.

[supertyphoon]

I don't see a problem, I see two managers doing what's best for their team in that situation.

You want to cut down on stolen bases, mission accomplished.

He wants to not get thrown out attempting to steal, changes settings to conservative, mission accomplished.

[drfreeze49]

Truth is my settings were aggresive for stealing...I never worry about who is catching (guess thats why I have problems)...I-Rod is minus 5 and 2 of the three starting pitchers were -2 and -3...so I guess it was HAL saying...slow your rocket ship down ha ha...not sure why only 1 attempt in three games

[JAMESOSSWALD]

I would be happy if the engine does not steal when my AA is only 1-9 or 1-10 to steal second base.

[Valen]

It is my opinion HAL determines whether to steal based on odds of success. Odds high run, odds low don't. Thus the catcher throwing arm rather than determining a percentage of stealers caught mostly determines frequency of attempts. Pudges rating discourages attempts but does not necessarily result in a higher percent getting caught unless opposing manager has a lot of bad decisions on who to have steal more.

Just a weakness of the strat steal system.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:508853ed9f="Valen"]It is my opinion HAL determines whether to steal based on odds of success. Odds high run, odds low don't. Thus the catcher throwing arm rather than determining a percentage of stealers caught mostly determines frequency of attempts. Pudges rating discourages attempts but does not necessarily result in a higher percent getting caught unless opposing manager has a lot of bad decisions on who to have steal more.

Just a weakness of the strat steal system.[/quote:508853ed9f]

It's a lot like real life. Your arm gets challenged until you prove that you shouldn't be challenged. Goes for outfielders and catchers. I'll give you IRod as an example.
First three years in the league, had .921, 1.008, and .927 per 9 innings at C. He threw out 49%, 52%, and 44% of those.

Through 2007, attempts/9 - CS%
[code:1:508853ed9f]0.645 38%
0.650 48%
0.691 51%
0.644 57%
0.654 56%
[b]0.558 55%[/b]
0.476 49%
0.610 60%
0.441 37%
0.476 33%
0.505 32%
0.592 51%
0.435 51%
0.581 31%[/code:1:508853ed9f]

What you see is a bit of evolution. Attempts down as marginal runners stop testing, and better stealers succeed more 94, he was getting (relatively speaking, for him) getting run on badly. Not frequently, but 62% successful. After the strike, he comes back sharper.

He did discourage people from running. About 30% of theoretical runners just stopped running on him after his first three years. By 1999 (the card we have) he's seeing the fewest runners per game in his career, and he STILL threw out 55% of them.

I don't see the lack of running against his 99 card as a flaw in the game. Only the really adventurous were stealing on IRod that year (and for the next 8) and he IS still gunning them down at a non-profitable rate (if 30% is your breakeven, he's never allowed a break even season... HOF worthy, imho).

My complaint is that, as in real life, you'd rather people run on your guy who guns down 50% of runners because it would generate more outs. This might be why I like -1 and -2 catchers better than IRod (oh and the complete inability to take a walk).

[Valen]

[quote:26cf1016c9]By 1999 (the card we have) he's seeing the fewest runners per game in his career, and he STILL threw out 55% of them. [/quote:26cf1016c9]
Proves my point. Even though the fringe runners quit challenging his percentage caught was quite good. In strat his percentage will in most leagues be close to the average for that league. Go check your leagues.

My last completed league the team that had Pudge as starting catcher had an opponent SB% of .682 which means Pudge was only throwing out 32% of runners, nowhere close to the 55% you list for real life. And there were 5 teams that were better making him solidly average.

Another team 120 games in and team with Pudge has given up 74% success rate which ranks 11th of 12 teams.

League before that team with Pudge at catcher ranked 9th on opponent SB%.

Bottom line: The model is simply not capable of simulating a catcher's ability to throw out runners. All it can do is limit the number of attempts a little because the computer is going to look at the odds of success after taking all ratings in to account and then make a go/no go decision based on those odds. Pudge should be in the upper half of every league but because the strat model in this area is flawed he will be in the lower half of most leagues, especially the 200 mil variety.

The same thing happens with outfielders with good arm ratings.

[PotKettleBlack]

So, Irod had a game wit more steal attempts. Runners went 1-3 against him.

Then 2 games with LHP, and no steal attempts from a team with Speaker, Lloyd, Carew and Whitaker.

Thus far, he's thrown out 75% of runners, and discouraged probably about a half dozen other runners from thinking about it.

(The one successful one did cost though... Lloyd in 12th... if IRod gets him, we're out of the inning).
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=146212&g_id=20

[Valen]

Luck of a small 6 game sample. I bet by midseason that 75% rate is down closer to 30% or less.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:6fe0856ddb="Valen"]Luck of a small 6 game sample. I bet by midseason that 75% rate is down closer to 30% or less.[/quote:6fe0856ddb]

I'm gonna pick him for about 35-45%. Yeah, wide range. But aside from my division (which features two heavy steal teams) this is essentially a 150M league, so not liable to see a ton of SBs.

Something to consider. It's entirely possible, that when it comes to working game theory/math problems, like Steal/Don't Steal, HAL is a lot better than a lot of 90's era managers. Even with aggressive baserunning.

I would save only my best runner to run against him. A percentage player, like Joe Morgan. Everyone else stays chained to first. (doesn't hurt that I have a lot of lefty pitching which tends to hold runners a lot better).