Clutch rating, during player evaluation

[FUDU]

At what point does CR come into play when comparing two or more players you are considering for your team?

Here's my decision right now:

Tim Salmon 8.51mil
Vs Lefties 81 31.05 4.8 0.6 8.2 25 2 0.383 0.538 0.761 1.299 17.93 20.50 29.10 -6
Vs Righties 88 32.55 6.5 0.5 5.3 18 2 0.370 0.487 0.636 1.123 13.27 15.29 24.42 -6



Ellis Valentine 6.55mil
Vs Lefties 106 34.3 10.25 5.05 13.25 0 2 0.324 0.336 0.891 1.227 11.94 17.49 29.44 5
Vs Righties 95 36.3 9 0 4.25 11 2 0.382 0.456 0.611 1.067 12.18 13.42 22.98 5


Do "clutch opportunities" come into play enough to even take CR into account for guys I'm platooning? Is -6 bad enough to negate some of the positives Salmon might have over Valentine, or vice versa with Valentine's 5 CR?

[Valen]

I usually use clutch as more of a tiebreaker. Never had a good season out of Salmon so probably take Valentine regardless of clutch. Plus if they are going to be in a platoon Salmon's cost is too high. Only going to get a couple hundred PAs. I am assuming if you are platooning you are getting a better quality hitter for the 400+ PAs against righties which means you are talking neighborhood of 17+ for a platoon. Unless rest of team is so bad you have nothing else to spend the money on would not do that. Would go with Valentine regardless of clutch. The positive clutch of Valentine just makes it easier decision.

The only advantage I see is if your LH batter side of the platoon was injury prone. Might prefer not to go with 2 injury prone guys in a platoon. In that event Salmon might be better choice because as a 1L he is serviceable as an injury replacement.

[FUDU]

Yeah I'm kind of viewing CR as a tiebreaker as well. I'm just wondering how many at bats throughout a season fall into the "clutch" category to even consider it as anything more than a meh tiebreaker.

Spending money to gain a clutch advantage a dozen times for the season as opposed to a less clutch hitter that gives you more consistency in none clutch situations. If that makes any sense.

[sdajr76]

i would look at a cheaper guy like colavito, bobby bonds, etc... if you are platooning.

-steven

[doug_tucker10]

I've gotten so i ignore clutch rating especially after getting 161 rbi's out of Ripper Collins. His ballpark was Stars on a Cubs franchise team. I have also had success with Aubrey Huff in the 200X game when he had a very bad clutch rating but nice card just the same.

CUB 162 676 119 185 20 9 56 161 59 84 0 0 .274 .330 .578 .908

[Valen]

[quote:67c3668f5f]I'm just wondering how many at bats throughout a season fall into the "clutch" category ...[/quote:67c3668f5f]
There was a thread years ago where someone had found an article that broke down the frequency of the strat defined clutch situation by batting order position. If I remember right it ranged from 9 to 11%. I want to say it was the #5 slot that had the 11% but that was a long time ago so just don't trust my memory on it.

[FUDU]

I think that thread might have been bumped in the past year b/c I was thinking that was the % I remember hearing about in here and i know I certainly wouldn't have searched more than 3 pages deep.

IMO roughly 10% is not enough to worry about with the guys I'm debating picking up.

[rburgh]

There are several reasons why Salmon is $2 million more expensive than Valentine. The biggest one is spelled O-B-P. Durability is also a factor. That being said, neither card is a world-beater. I'd use someone else. If you're going to platoon, Colavito has a nice backward RH card, and you can get some cheap lefty bombers out there. If you want a LH bat against RHP, there are several killer Oliva cards to choose from, Ross Youngs is a killer leadoff man against RHP, and Strawberry is often available. If you look, you'll find others.

[macnole]

i don't factor clutch because it is a relatively scarce event on the card in play.
I forgot the numbers from the study years ago, but back of the envelope shows it to be small. This is where SIMing it on the CD ROM helps.


Caveats:
1- If a guy does happen to have posi clutch, then it may affect where I put him in the order. HAL seems to have a tendency to make a consideration for it in certain situations. So I like guys to have posi clutch if they are low-mid range hitters who will be hitting behind the meat of the order.

2- If a small ball team, will try to maximize it across the lineup. Squeeze every last bit of advantage for another run and make an assumption that stolen bases and more singles/doubles will lead to more clutch situations since the bases will rarely get cleared.

So in your situation--no factor.

[Munich_Man]

[quote:b93828bf30="Valen"][quote:b93828bf30]I'm just wondering how many at bats throughout a season fall into the "clutch" category ...[/quote:b93828bf30]
There was a thread years ago where someone had found an article that broke down the frequency of the strat defined clutch situation by batting order position. If I remember right it ranged from 9 to 11%. I want to say it was the #5 slot that had the 11% but that was a long time ago so just don't trust my memory on it.[/quote:b93828bf30]

Gee, wouldn't it be nice if we could actually search for said thread? :evil: