Strategy question

[tkl33]

Use the pitch around feature. If that isn't turned on then walk him.

[harry lime]

good question, gringo.

It was Simmons, who i believe is a 13. I'll double check whe I get home.

I'm really surprised almost everyone is walking Gehrig.

Here's what happened--

The manager I was playing areed with you guys- Gehrig was walked and Vosmik hit a single and 2 runs scored.

Thinking about it afterward-- my gut says you never walk the winning run into scoring position. Gehrig needs at least a double to win the game. Vosmik needs a single. No matter how good a player Gehrig is, a single is far more common than an extra base hit.

I looked up the odds and it's pretty overwhelming thst you should pitch to Gehrig. Again--I'll post them when i get home.

[The Last Druid]

That's why I always set intentional walks to very conservative and then, for all my pitchers, IBB less with this pitcher.

Hindsight is 20-20 but I was recently reading "Baseball the Numbers Game."
Apparently one of the first insights gleaned from the then nascent discipline of sabermetrics was that intentional walks are a big-time losing strategy. While there are certain situations that can benefit from IBB's, the old conventional wisdom of not giving an intentional pass with a runner on first base is not one of them.

Besides who would ever trust HAL to do the right thing. So no intentional walks for HAL. And no I wouldn't have walked Gehrig. And I would have posted earlier but I haven't been on the boards. Even missed a waiver "frenzy" today for the first time.

CIV 4 was due out today but wasn't delivered to retailers. :evil: :evil: :evil:

[gkhd11a]

You walk Gehrig anyway, you are on the road. The odds of Gehrig tying the game must be overwhelming. If the pitchers card comes up with a 4R or if Gehrigs card comes up you probably have less than a 40% chance of holding him and probably a 20% chance of losing right there. On the other hand vs right hander and with a guy with negative clutch you probably have a 60-65% chance of winning. And if Gehrig gets a hit then the next batter will still have the same chance to win it.

My feeling is without knowing the cards Gehrig will have a 60% chance to tie and once tied the visiting team probably only has a 25% chance of winning since they will still be batting in the ninth and will bat again in the 10th knowing what's needed to win. Therefore a 40% chance of winning with Gehrig up plus the 25% chance when Gehrig gets a hits the other 60% of the time leads to a .4 +.6*.25 = 55% chance of winning pitching to Gehrig vs 60-65% of winning if you walk him.

If you were the home team then perhaps you can pitch to Gehrig, but to risk going to a tie right there would have been the wrong strategy. The key strategy mistake was in allowing runners to get to 1st and 3rd up by one with Gehrig coming up..............

[DAVIDHALL]

Gehrig's a bum, why are you even playing a guy like that? :wink:

[MICHAELEVANS]

:shock:

Dave, even though I almost never use Lou (too expensive for 1B with all the other good options there), he is my hero. Lou a bum? Say it ain't so, Joe!!!!!

[DAVIDHALL]

Private joke, Old Geezer.

'34 Gehrig was my 1B in the inaugural Netplay 1 season. 50+ HRs, 180+ rbis, led my team to the title. :D

[harry lime]

Here's the odds from the cards. This is factoring in the pitcher's card too. I added the two percentages up and divided by 2.

Gehrig had a 31.05% chance to tie the game. He had a 12.3 chance to win it. There's a 43% chance that Lou continues the inning.

After you walk Gehrig--Vosmik has a 29.6 chance to win it. And a 33.8 chance to at least tie it.

I didn't factor in clutch or BP Hr's (it was a bad BP HR park). Vosmik is not affected by BP hr's,and Gehrig is hurt by it-- i think this is close to a wash with the clutch.

All of these odds are assuming that a double scores the runner from 1st and single scores the runner from second.

So by walking gehrig you almost double the chances that you lose. And the chances of a tie barely change. I say you gotta pitch to Lou-- it would have to be a pretty bad hitter behind him to make it work.

Please feel free to add to critique my analyisis-- I'm not sure that's the best way to do it. And I may be missing something.

I think the main goal is to keep playing the game--a tie allows you to do that.

[Treyomo]

I almost never intentionally walk - I think I have 6 thru 80 games in my current netplay league. I'd much rather carry a deeper pen and have matchup pitchers available than add baserunners. And even if I can't match up, there's a 50% chance that the roll falls on the pitchers card for either Gehrig or Vosmik. With the poor defense generally available in the individual seasons, you add in the chance of a bases loaded error after the intnetional walk.

Plus, Gehrig's card is pretty heavily walk loaded, while Vosmik's, though much worse, is more hit oriented.

[gkhd11a]

[quote:9ba75d6424]Gehrig had a 31.05% chance to tie the game. He had a 12.3 chance to win it. There's a 43% chance that Lou continues the inning.

After you walk Gehrig--Vosmik has a 29.6 chance to win it. And a 33.8 chance to at least tie it.
[/quote:9ba75d6424]

Then I don't understand these cards, If I am reading your post correctly a 4R pitcher was in the game and Gehrig's card has a 43% chance of getting on base and Vosmik a right hander has a 29.6+33.8 = 63% chance of getting on base. I find that hard to believe.

IF what you are saying tho is that after walking Gehrig there was a 33.8% chance of Vosmik either tying or winning the game and a 66.2% chance of winning by Vosmik making an out, I don't see how the odds are significantly different in either occasion. But for this to be true that would mean 87%% of the time the Vosmik gets on the runners advance at least 2 bases vs only advancing one base 13% of the time he gets on base. [The 29.6 vs 33.8 difference] Must be a most unusual pitching and hitting card combo for this to be true.

If you pitch to gehrig then according to your number 12.3% of the time you lose right there (seems awfully low for all the doubles triples and homers Gehrig hits but I'll accept that) then 31% of the time it goes to Vosmik where you have 30% chance of losing. Meaning 12.3 +.3*.31 = 21% of the time you will lose with Gehrig up in the next 2 at bats vs Volmiks 29.6% chance of winning it. While this is a decrease in the chance of winning it is not 1/2 as likely. And of course by pitching to both hitters you have doubled the chance of an error. ANd the chances according to your calculations are a 31% chance of a tie by pitching to Gehrig and 33% by walking him. A very close call overall using your figures it is a 12% increase in the number of times you would lose [1-79/70] by walking Gehrig. And this difference would be greatly reduced if the true odds of a single by Vomik were known, if 10% of Volmik's AB's the runner really would only advance 1 bases then the odds of winning the game by walking Gehrig would be equal.

All in all I do not have the cards in front of me to make the correct statistical call but I will say one should never say an intentional walk is bad because in many situations it will increase your chance of winning.

ANd if Volmik really has a 62% chance of getting on base then this was a trick question