A case for balance

[Rob55]

I recognized it too.....they jsut beat me in the finals in 5 games .... so I SURE wasn't going to praise them .... hahahahaha

Like I said ....not enough OBP and power....change the dang team and lets do the finals over again :D

[Rob55]

I really didn't want to revisit it either :oops:

this is the team that lost to him....Brown lost one game 1-0 on a HR by Agee.....sigh

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/playoffs/team_other.html?user_id=67507

[sschu]

So what was the team OBP?

[Rob55]

he was 8th in offense with a .306 OBP and had more HR's then i did ...LOL

[PJ Axelsson]

Enough OBP, just enough...

My point with this post is to preach the gospel of balance. This team has some stars, to be sure, but it's not a roster that jumps off the page at you and makes you try to emulate it. But it was a very tough team to beat because it wouldn't beat itself. I put them in the perfectly balanced park and let the pitching and defense hold the fort while an occasional run scored.

Here are the final stats for the team and the league:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=66227

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/playoffs/standings_regseason.html?user_id=66227

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/league/stats.html?user_id=66227

[nevdully's]

I love when we're thrown a curve.

[sschu]

This is not intended to demean your team or the points you are making in anyway, because it is interesting, and you had a great season. Here are a few thoughts:

1. Bill James luck factor - RS vs RA

The calculation shows you should have won 3.2 games less, or 87 games, in which case you would have missed the playoffs.

2. OBP * SLG * ABs = RS. I have looked at this calculation for a bunch of teams, the average for actual RS is about 5% less than the calc'd number. For this team you were right on, so in an average scenario you should have scored about 30 runs less.

3. Over/underperformance

It seems your hitters performed about average, but your error rate was outstanding, only 86 for the season. With the exception of Carter, every player was under the value on his card, this seems unusual to me.


But you won, you have a ring, and that is all that counts, nice team, congrats. This shows how close some leagues/teams are matched, sometimes it is a thin margin between a ring and watching it on TV. :)

FWIIW, sschu

[PJ Axelsson]

I agree with the numbers in principle, but I would add that you cannot adjust/correct just one team. You have to do all of them to see who should have or shouldn't have made the playoffs, and who scored more or less runs than they should have.

That being said, I feel that luck [i:4dce35a6eb][u:4dce35a6eb]was[/u:4dce35a6eb][/i:4dce35a6eb] a huge part of this season. I expected the team to be competitive, but not win it all, especially against the crowd managing in this league. All season long, my team refused to go away. But how lucky is a team that wins a Strat Championship? Luck cannot explain this team's success, short of this being a demonstration of how tight a league can be with 12 competitive managers and teams.

This thread could really open a hairy can of worms in the [i:4dce35a6eb][u:4dce35a6eb]numbers[/u:4dce35a6eb][/i:4dce35a6eb] crowd vs. the [i:4dce35a6eb][u:4dce35a6eb]see the cards - feel the cards [/u:4dce35a6eb][/i:4dce35a6eb]crowd.

:shock:

[tomwistar]

The thing that really surprises me is that none of the hitters had a particularly great season--in fact, Rolfe, Schoendienst, Cepeda all underperformed a little bit. I think Koufax and Camnitz were both more dominant than usual.

Impressive!

[sschu]

PJ,

I was in no way trying to say you won due to luck alone, clearly your team was well thought out and constructed. It is always interesting to me to see why some teams do better than others, hence the discussion.

BTW, here are the other "luck factors" for your division:

Relativity was +1.7 wins on the luck side, so you and him should have been at 87 wins

MunchenMan got the shaft, he was -6.1 wins, or 94 which would have won the division.

Txs for the insight, sschu