Take A Look

[The Last Druid]

Problem is the effects of normalization, to the extent that it may or may not be a feature of the game, are very hard to tease out from the very powerful effects of regression to the mean.

[Muadib1950]

Fortunately ... and unfortunately ... the human dice rolls, paper charts, and player cards ... are ALL translated into computer code ... which means we get hundreds or even thousands of games played in the time it'd take you and I to play one on a table top ... and the programmers can also implant dozens and dozens of other processes in there while they're at it ...

Now the coding can ... and should ... accurately simulate the cards and dice rolls... a faithful and reliable random number generator replacing the dice does that just fine ... but there's still way too many puzzling disobediences of even the improved instructions we're now allowed in bullpen matters ... and the game engine still loves to flip the Right Fielder and Left Fielder for reasons I do not know ... and Bernie won't stop. And if Nev is puzzled and Petro says we got black box mysteries, then we do have a problem ... unless they're in there to essentially help the less experienced not get overwhelmed by the vets ALL the time ...

OTOH ... if you or I could just figure out how DonFESQ's got a $200 mil. team winning at an astounding .667 rate (would you believe 80-40?) ... also with $13 mil. left on the table ... sigh ... guess I'll just have to draft all his players next time 'round!! :wink:

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

Can you post DonFESQ's team link?

[PotKettleBlack]

Consider me a convert from the "random chance" "coincidence" "luck evens out" camp to the "normalization is on" camp.

Have now seen it on my own teams enough to get vaguely upset about it. Both in player performance (Bonds HRs, Ted Williams BA) and team performance, kicking in around game 100. It's enough to move me off of Ted Williams. Well, maybe not that far.

[nevdully's]

80-40 is pretty deep into a season no?

42 games left how many think he can finish those last 42 by winning at his same rate 28-14?

How many think his team will cool off some and go something like 23-19?

Anyone thinking .500 or under?


But here is (for my money) the most important question...How many people think he can improve on a very good team getting red hot and actually finish stronger, maybe 33-9?

You see here's my thinking....*if* anybody can rock through an entire season it's DonFESQ...At this point in 200m it's the same bunch of the highest salaried players so not much chance of earth shattering waiver changes to help his opponents (thankfully guys cutting 10m+ players has been greatly diminshed) Blockbuster trades, maybe? but they'll effect a team or two and maybe even not have the desired effect...Guys far out of it sometimes stop actively managing their team...I know I've stopped on certain teams...I've heard PJMB stops at times with his poorer teams and we're two hardcore players...So to me here's what it boils down too.....

Luck? Was he lucky and his luck evens out? If so [b:319fb9099d]what makes 162 games the magic number to have anyone's and apparently everyones's luck even out[/b:319fb9099d]...Or is it in the code to simulate what was said above, just mimicking real life when the best teams coast etc...Either way is ok with me....I have concerns with not knowing what I'm paying for.

[DonFESQ]

Have lost 6 in a row with the team since it was first posted so now 80-46. Actually am only tied for best record in the league now so it's not really an outlier. This is actually a DD live draft league(18 rounds on DD then autodraft scrubs) so not like a 200m autodraft. It's a great long term league with little manager turnover.

This team is nothing special. My outfield of Heilmann, Cedeno, and J. Jackson isn't going to scare anyone. I have David Wright at 3B so no great shakes there either. Just kinda went with the flow in the draft and picked up some guys I don't use that often but were good values where I got them.

[scorehouse]

my problem is hal seems to always install normalization/manipulation on my teams in the playoffs. i've never had any of my 98 to 102 win teams advance?

[Private Jet Mama's Boys]

Recently had a 67-47 team finish 16-32.

Have a current team that started 50-25 that followed that by going 18-33.

Had a Good Peeps tourney team last year at 90-36 that finished 17-19 in a division that I was 32-4 against.


Makes ya wonder :?

[LMBombers]

I'm not a believer in this black box theory at all. If a player bats .333 for the season that doesn't mean that every game he was 1 for 3. He might have been hitting .300 at the halfway point. He might have been hitting .350 at the halfway point. If he was hitting .350 and ended up at .333 there would be cries of "normalization". :lol:

There are ups and there are downs for players as well as teams in real baseball and in SOM. Like I have said before, even if there was such a thing it affects every mangager, player and team so it is of no consequence. This is much adeu about nothing.

In real baseball the Red Sox started 2-10 and look at them now. Is that some sort of normalization effect? They will likely go into another losing stretch before the end of the season too.

[nevdully's]

[quote:8e2b4866f9][b:8e2b4866f9]Like I have said before, even if there was such a thing it affects every mangager, player and team so it is of no consequence[/b:8e2b4866f9][/quote:8e2b4866f9]


[b:8e2b4866f9][u:8e2b4866f9]*IF*[/u:8e2b4866f9][/b:8e2b4866f9] such a code does exist, the above statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

Well I guess it's correct in it does effects everybody but [b:8e2b4866f9][u:8e2b4866f9]*NOT EQUALLY[/u:8e2b4866f9]*
[/b:8e2b4866f9]

The better teams are drawn down by this normalization and the lesser teams up. :roll: :roll: :roll: