More Stuff I Don't Get
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by JedimasterTjg1 » Sat Jun 11, 2011 5:51 pm
I agree with Petrosian but he really got ripped off with only 97 RBI's. 90 doubles and only 97 RBI.....Wes was robbed!
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by Proverbial Psalms » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:51 pm
Not all PB-7's are created equal...
If you check out the super-advanced fielding charts for catchers, you will see that Josh's range, a 3, results in 9 different combinations, out of 20, where a chance of a passed ball comes into play (the P/P and P/F items) whereas a 1 rated Cather has just 3 chances out of 20. So Josh would on average give up 3 times as many passed balls as a 1 ranged PB 1-7.
If I read the rules correctly, if we are playing where a PB, WP is possible on every batter roll with a man on base, and if I did the math correctly, Gibson would give up a PB every 115 batters hitting with men on base... plus the ones coming directly from c(x). With maybe 20 batters per game hitting with men on base, maybe+/-, that would be one every 5-6 games plus another every 12-15 games from catcher(x).. Would put you close to the number you are seeing perhaps...
Still, makes you wonder why other catchers are not over 10... Maybe there are no 2/3 ranged catchers?
Checked a few leagues and almost every time the team with Gibson led the league in PB's... Except where a team used Oscar Heavy Johnson at catcher where that team had 35 PB's... Heavy is a PB-7 but with a range of 4. Hmmmmmm....
If you check out the super-advanced fielding charts for catchers, you will see that Josh's range, a 3, results in 9 different combinations, out of 20, where a chance of a passed ball comes into play (the P/P and P/F items) whereas a 1 rated Cather has just 3 chances out of 20. So Josh would on average give up 3 times as many passed balls as a 1 ranged PB 1-7.
If I read the rules correctly, if we are playing where a PB, WP is possible on every batter roll with a man on base, and if I did the math correctly, Gibson would give up a PB every 115 batters hitting with men on base... plus the ones coming directly from c(x). With maybe 20 batters per game hitting with men on base, maybe+/-, that would be one every 5-6 games plus another every 12-15 games from catcher(x).. Would put you close to the number you are seeing perhaps...
Still, makes you wonder why other catchers are not over 10... Maybe there are no 2/3 ranged catchers?
Checked a few leagues and almost every time the team with Gibson led the league in PB's... Except where a team used Oscar Heavy Johnson at catcher where that team had 35 PB's... Heavy is a PB-7 but with a range of 4. Hmmmmmm....
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WJannsen
by nevdully's » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:31 pm
But Bill, question. If I understand what you're saying 22 is about what's to be expected only 2/3 rds through... meaning 35ish for a full *normal* season...Does that mean in a particularly bad year he might allow close to 50 pbs?
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Re: WJannsen
by Proverbial Psalms » Sun Jun 12, 2011 5:45 pm
[quote:0e97442b3d="nevdully's"]But Bill, question. If I understand what you're saying 22 is about what's to be expected only 2/3 rds through... meaning 35ish for a full *normal* season...Does that mean in a particularly bad year he might allow close to 50 pbs?[/quote:0e97442b3d]
You are probably right, that 22 on pace for 35+ is more on the high side than the normal-average season... other than whether the rolls were unusually unfortunate,the real wildcard that is hard to calculate is how many batters come up, per game, with a runner on base. For one thing I have never counted or even sampled, and for another it depends on the type of ballpark and pitching... i.e. Polo 34 would have few PB's because less on base than say Fenway 67 etc... plus whether a team went heavy hitting and thus have pitchers with higher onbase... all would significantly influence the number of chances of even getting to Gibson's ratings, let alone whether once on Gibson's ratings whether the results are normal or an outlier set.
My gut tells me the typical Gibson might be 28-30 PB's, and you are ahead of pace, but maybe worth a closer sampling.
Having said all that, the main point that I realized was how much impact range had on PB chances, which sort of makes sense in that a catcher who can't get to many bouncers or bunts would also likely have difficulty in blocking some balls that are not quite wild enough to be WP's.
The only PB stats we see are for team level, I think, so it is easier for a Gibson who will play almost every inning, than for any type of platoon or case where backup innings are in play during injuries... would be better to compare Gibson to other 3 range catchers but not many play fully, thus team totals would not necessarily be their totals like they are with Gibson... make sense?
Would be great to see a deep dive on this...
You are probably right, that 22 on pace for 35+ is more on the high side than the normal-average season... other than whether the rolls were unusually unfortunate,the real wildcard that is hard to calculate is how many batters come up, per game, with a runner on base. For one thing I have never counted or even sampled, and for another it depends on the type of ballpark and pitching... i.e. Polo 34 would have few PB's because less on base than say Fenway 67 etc... plus whether a team went heavy hitting and thus have pitchers with higher onbase... all would significantly influence the number of chances of even getting to Gibson's ratings, let alone whether once on Gibson's ratings whether the results are normal or an outlier set.
My gut tells me the typical Gibson might be 28-30 PB's, and you are ahead of pace, but maybe worth a closer sampling.
Having said all that, the main point that I realized was how much impact range had on PB chances, which sort of makes sense in that a catcher who can't get to many bouncers or bunts would also likely have difficulty in blocking some balls that are not quite wild enough to be WP's.
The only PB stats we see are for team level, I think, so it is easier for a Gibson who will play almost every inning, than for any type of platoon or case where backup innings are in play during injuries... would be better to compare Gibson to other 3 range catchers but not many play fully, thus team totals would not necessarily be their totals like they are with Gibson... make sense?
Would be great to see a deep dive on this...
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by WeatherNut » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:49 am
I have used Spoony Palm 8 times, all at 100 Mil. He is similar defensively to Gibson, though Palm is a pb4 while Josh is a pb6. Both are '3' fielders. Spoony has averaged about 18 pb per season. He does have a season high of 31 passed balls (these are all team totals where he did the bulk of the catching. His backup was primarily Charlie Berry).
21/17/15/31/21/12/16/14
This suggests Josh' 22 pb so far is a little high, but not necessarily outlandish.
WN
21/17/15/31/21/12/16/14
This suggests Josh' 22 pb so far is a little high, but not necessarily outlandish.
WN
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